{smcl}
{com}{sf}{ul off}{txt}{.-}
      name:  {res}<unnamed>
       {txt}log:  {res}C:\Users\smidt\Dropbox\PC\Documents\PaperProjects\Paper-Cracking Down on HR defenders\Analysis\Code\Replication\MainAnalyses_plusAppendices_log.smcl
  {txt}log type:  {res}smcl
 {txt}opened on:  {res} 2 Oct 2019, 17:13:04
{txt}
{com}. 
. 
. *net install clarify, from("C:\Users\hanna\Dropbox\Stata13\ado\clarify")
. 
. cd "C:\Users\smidt\Dropbox\PC\Documents\PaperProjects\Paper-Cracking Down on HR defenders\Analysis\Code\Replication"
{res}C:\Users\smidt\Dropbox\PC\Documents\PaperProjects\Paper-Cracking Down on HR defenders\Analysis\Code\Replication
{txt}
{com}. use RestrictionsFinalData.dta, clear
{txt}
{com}. 
. **********************
. ** Data preparation **
. **********************
. 
. * Make time-series
. tsset cowcode YEAR, yearly
{res}{txt}{col 8}panel variable:  {res}cowcode (unbalanced)
{txt}{col 9}time variable:  {res}{col 25}YEAR, 1994 to 2014, but with gaps
{txt}{col 17}delta:  {res}1 year
{txt}
{com}. 
. * Labels
. // define program
. capture program drop labels
{txt}
{com}. program labels
{txt}  1{com}.     label var pts_stateDep "PTS"
{txt}  2{com}.         label var ICCPR_ratif "ICCPR"
{txt}  3{com}.         label drop ICCPR_ratif
{txt}  4{com}.         label define ICCPR_ratif 0 "ICCPR not ratified" 1 "ICCPR ratified"
{txt}  5{com}.         label val ICCPR_ratif ICCPR_ratif
{txt}  6{com}.         label var conflictYear "Conflict year"
{txt}  7{com}.         label var polity2 "Polity IV Score"
{txt}  8{com}.         label var polity2_sq "Polity IV Score sq."
{txt}  9{com}.         label var exconst "Executive constraints"
{txt} 10{com}.         label var protest_ClarkRegan_logLag1 "Protest events (lag 1 year)"
{txt} 11{com}.         label var gdpPerCapita "GDP"
{txt} 12{com}.         label var gdpPerCapita_z "GDP (stand.)"
{txt} 13{com}.         label var population "Population size" 
{txt} 14{com}.         label var population_z "Population (stand.)" 
{txt} 15{com}.         label var youthBulgeln "Youth bulge"
{txt} 16{com}.         label var v2x_juconln "Independent judiciary"
{txt} 17{com}.         label var farissHumanRightsScores "Latent human rights abuses score"
{txt} 18{com}.         label var restrictionCount  "Count of restrictions"
{txt} 19{com}.         capture label var restrictionLag1 "Restrictions (lag 1 year)"
{txt} 20{com}. end
{txt}
{com}. 
. labels
{txt}
{com}. 
. 
. ******************************
. ** Main regression analysis **
. ******************************
. 
. **********
. ** Table 1
. **********
. 
. set seed 1234
{txt}
{com}. 
. * Model 1A: ICCPR + PTS
. xtnbreg restrictionCount2 c.pts_stateDep##i.ICCPR_ratif, corr(ar 1) pa

{txt}note:  observations not equally spaced
       modal spacing is delta YEAR = 1 year
       20 groups omitted from estimation
note:  some groups have fewer than 2 observations
       not possible to estimate correlations for those groups
       2 groups omitted from estimation


Iteration 1: tolerance = {res}.52351805
{txt}Iteration 2: tolerance = {res}.35733291
{txt}Iteration 3: tolerance = {res}.15097583
{txt}Iteration 4: tolerance = {res}.03286039
{txt}Iteration 5: tolerance = {res}.0038597
{txt}Iteration 6: tolerance = {res}.00112344
{txt}Iteration 7: tolerance = {res}.00092071
{txt}Iteration 8: tolerance = {res}.0004618
{txt}Iteration 9: tolerance = {res}.00020149
{txt}Iteration 10: tolerance = {res}.00008249
{txt}Iteration 11: tolerance = {res}.00003269
{txt}Iteration 12: tolerance = {res}.00001272
{txt}Iteration 13: tolerance = {res}4.901e-06
{txt}Iteration 14: tolerance = {res}1.876e-06
{txt}Iteration 15: tolerance = {res}7.155e-07

{txt}GEE population-averaged model                   Number of obs     = {res}     3,001
{txt}Group and time vars:          {res}cowcode YEAR      {txt}Number of groups  = {res}       149
{txt}Link:                                  {res}log      {txt}Obs per group:
Family:             {res}negative binomial(k=1)                    {txt}min = {res}         2
{txt}Correlation:                         {res}AR(1)                    {txt}avg = {res}      20.1
                                                              {txt}max = {res}        21
                                                {txt}Wald chi2({res}3{txt})      =  {res}    37.67
{txt}Scale parameter:                 {res}        1      {txt}Prob > chi2       =     {res}0.0000

{txt}{hline 27}{c TT}{hline 11}{hline 11}{hline 9}{hline 8}{hline 13}{hline 12}
{col 1}         restrictionCount2{col 28}{c |}      Coef.{col 40}   Std. Err.{col 52}      z{col 60}   P>|z|{col 68}     [95% Con{col 81}f. Interval]
{hline 27}{c +}{hline 11}{hline 11}{hline 9}{hline 8}{hline 13}{hline 12}
{space 14}pts_stateDep {c |}{col 28}{res}{space 2} .1026585{col 40}{space 2} .0588085{col 51}{space 1}    1.75{col 60}{space 3}0.081{col 68}{space 4}-.0126041{col 81}{space 3} .2179211
{txt}{space 26} {c |}
{space 15}ICCPR_ratif {c |}
{space 11}ICCPR ratified  {c |}{col 28}{res}{space 2} -.114589{col 40}{space 2} .2149378{col 51}{space 1}   -0.53{col 60}{space 3}0.594{col 68}{space 4}-.5358593{col 81}{space 3} .3066814
{txt}{space 26} {c |}
ICCPR_ratif#c.pts_stateDep {c |}
{space 11}ICCPR ratified  {c |}{col 28}{res}{space 2} .0503595{col 40}{space 2} .0627348{col 51}{space 1}    0.80{col 60}{space 3}0.422{col 68}{space 4}-.0725985{col 81}{space 3} .1733175
{txt}{space 26} {c |}
{space 21}_cons {c |}{col 28}{res}{space 2}-.2404995{col 40}{space 2} .2114663{col 51}{space 1}   -1.14{col 60}{space 3}0.255{col 68}{space 4}-.6549658{col 81}{space 3} .1739668
{txt}{hline 27}{c BT}{hline 11}{hline 11}{hline 9}{hline 8}{hline 13}{hline 12}

{com}. outreg2 using ".\Tables\Table1.doc", replace ctitle(Model 1A) label dec(3) symbol(**,*,+) addstat(Deviance, `e(deviance)')
{txt}{stata `"shellout using `".\Tables\Table1.doc"'"':.\Tables\Table1.doc}
{browse `"C:\Users\smidt\Dropbox\PC\Documents\PaperProjects\Paper-Cracking Down on HR defenders\Analysis\Code\Replication"' :dir}{com} : {txt}{stata `"seeout using ".\Tables\Table1.txt", label"':seeout}

{com}. 
. * Model 1B: ICCPR + PTS
. xtgee restrictionCount2 c.pts_stateDep##i.ICCPR_ratif protest_ClarkRegan_logLag1 exconst youthBulgeln v2x_juconln conflictYear gdpPerCapita_z population_z, tol(0.02) force corr(ar 1) family(nbinom) link (nbinom)
{txt}note:  some groups have fewer than 2 observations
       not possible to estimate correlations for those groups
       2 groups omitted from estimation


Iteration 1: tolerance = {res}.04213217
{txt}Iteration 2: tolerance = {res}.01725557

{txt}GEE population-averaged model                   Number of obs     = {res}     2,730
{txt}Group and time vars:          {res}cowcode YEAR      {txt}Number of groups  = {res}       147
{txt}Link:                    {res}negative binomial      {txt}Obs per group:
Family:             {res}negative binomial(k=1)                    {txt}min = {res}         2
{txt}Correlation:                         {res}AR(1)                    {txt}avg = {res}      18.6
                                                              {txt}max = {res}        20
                                                {txt}Wald chi2({res}10{txt})     =  {res}   531.88
{txt}Scale parameter:                 {res}        1      {txt}Prob > chi2       =     {res}0.0000

{txt}{hline 27}{c TT}{hline 11}{hline 11}{hline 9}{hline 8}{hline 13}{hline 12}
{col 1}         restrictionCount2{col 28}{c |}      Coef.{col 40}   Std. Err.{col 52}      z{col 60}   P>|z|{col 68}     [95% Con{col 81}f. Interval]
{hline 27}{c +}{hline 11}{hline 11}{hline 9}{hline 8}{hline 13}{hline 12}
{space 14}pts_stateDep {c |}{col 28}{res}{space 2}-.0118464{col 40}{space 2} .0292631{col 51}{space 1}   -0.40{col 60}{space 3}0.686{col 68}{space 4}-.0692011{col 81}{space 3} .0455082
{txt}{space 26} {c |}
{space 15}ICCPR_ratif {c |}
{space 11}ICCPR ratified  {c |}{col 28}{res}{space 2}-.4716289{col 40}{space 2} .1172957{col 51}{space 1}   -4.02{col 60}{space 3}0.000{col 68}{space 4}-.7015242{col 81}{space 3}-.2417335
{txt}{space 26} {c |}
ICCPR_ratif#c.pts_stateDep {c |}
{space 11}ICCPR ratified  {c |}{col 28}{res}{space 2} .1623864{col 40}{space 2} .0313103{col 51}{space 1}    5.19{col 60}{space 3}0.000{col 68}{space 4} .1010193{col 81}{space 3} .2237535
{txt}{space 26} {c |}
protest_ClarkRegan_logLag1 {c |}{col 28}{res}{space 2} .0190192{col 40}{space 2}  .006483{col 51}{space 1}    2.93{col 60}{space 3}0.003{col 68}{space 4} .0063127{col 81}{space 3} .0317257
{txt}{space 19}exconst {c |}{col 28}{res}{space 2}-.0650008{col 40}{space 2} .0080795{col 51}{space 1}   -8.05{col 60}{space 3}0.000{col 68}{space 4}-.0808364{col 81}{space 3}-.0491652
{txt}{space 14}youthBulgeln {c |}{col 28}{res}{space 2}  .718499{col 40}{space 2} .1066553{col 51}{space 1}    6.74{col 60}{space 3}0.000{col 68}{space 4} .5094584{col 81}{space 3} .9275396
{txt}{space 15}v2x_juconln {c |}{col 28}{res}{space 2}-.1026502{col 40}{space 2} .0079966{col 51}{space 1}  -12.84{col 60}{space 3}0.000{col 68}{space 4}-.1183232{col 81}{space 3}-.0869773
{txt}{space 14}conflictYear {c |}{col 28}{res}{space 2}  .045619{col 40}{space 2} .0170389{col 51}{space 1}    2.68{col 60}{space 3}0.007{col 68}{space 4} .0122234{col 81}{space 3} .0790146
{txt}{space 12}gdpPerCapita_z {c |}{col 28}{res}{space 2} .0797793{col 40}{space 2} .0203018{col 51}{space 1}    3.93{col 60}{space 3}0.000{col 68}{space 4} .0399885{col 81}{space 3}   .11957
{txt}{space 14}population_z {c |}{col 28}{res}{space 2} .0542081{col 40}{space 2}  .008398{col 51}{space 1}    6.45{col 60}{space 3}0.000{col 68}{space 4} .0377484{col 81}{space 3} .0706678
{txt}{space 21}_cons {c |}{col 28}{res}{space 2}-2.626994{col 40}{space 2} .3419038{col 51}{space 1}   -7.68{col 60}{space 3}0.000{col 68}{space 4}-3.297114{col 81}{space 3}-1.956875
{txt}{hline 27}{c BT}{hline 11}{hline 11}{hline 9}{hline 8}{hline 13}{hline 12}

{com}. outreg2 using ".\Tables\Table1.doc", append ctitle(Model 1B) label dec(3) symbol(**,*,+) addstat(Deviance, `e(deviance)')
{txt}{stata `"shellout using `".\Tables\Table1.doc"'"':.\Tables\Table1.doc}
{browse `"C:\Users\smidt\Dropbox\PC\Documents\PaperProjects\Paper-Cracking Down on HR defenders\Analysis\Code\Replication"' :dir}{com} : {txt}{stata `"seeout using ".\Tables\Table1.txt", label"':seeout}

{com}. 
. * Figure 5
. capture drop low 
{txt}
{com}. capture drop high 
{txt}
{com}. capture drop x 
{txt}
{com}. capture drop est
{txt}
{com}. margins, dydx(pts_stateDep) at(ICCPR_ratif =(0) ) atmeans
{res}
{txt}Conditional marginal effects{col 49}Number of obs{col 67}= {res}     2,730
{txt}Model VCE{col 14}: {res}Conventional

{txt}{p2colset 1 14 16 2}{...}
{p2col:Expression}:{space 1}{res:Negative binomial prediction, predict()}{p_end}
{p2colreset}{...}
{txt}{p2colset 1 14 16 2}{...}
{p2col:dy/dx w.r.t.}:{space 1}{res:pts_stateDep}{p_end}
{p2colreset}{...}
{txt}{p2colset 1 14 16 2}{...}
{p2col:at}:{space 1}{res:{txt:pts_stateDep}{space 4}{txt:=} {space 3}2.572161 {txt:(mean)}}{p_end}
{p2colreset}{...}
{txt}{p2colset 1 14 16 2}{...}
{p2col: }{space 2}{res:{txt:ICCPR_ratif}{space 5}{txt:=} {space 10}0}{p_end}
{p2colreset}{...}
{txt}{p2colset 1 14 16 2}{...}
{p2col: }{space 2}{res:{txt:protest_Cl~1}{space 4}{txt:=} {space 3}.9611858 {txt:(mean)}}{p_end}
{p2colreset}{...}
{txt}{p2colset 1 14 16 2}{...}
{p2col: }{space 2}{res:{txt:exconst}{space 9}{txt:=} {space 3}4.940659 {txt:(mean)}}{p_end}
{p2colreset}{...}
{txt}{p2colset 1 14 16 2}{...}
{p2col: }{space 2}{res:{txt:youthBulgeln}{space 4}{txt:=} {space 3}2.888049 {txt:(mean)}}{p_end}
{p2colreset}{...}
{txt}{p2colset 1 14 16 2}{...}
{p2col: }{space 2}{res:{txt:v2x_juconln}{space 5}{txt:=} {space 2}-.7291509 {txt:(mean)}}{p_end}
{p2colreset}{...}
{txt}{p2colset 1 14 16 2}{...}
{p2col: }{space 2}{res:{txt:conflictYear}{space 4}{txt:=} {space 3}.1611722 {txt:(mean)}}{p_end}
{p2colreset}{...}
{txt}{p2colset 1 14 16 2}{...}
{p2col: }{space 2}{res:{txt:gdpPerCapi~z}{space 4}{txt:=} {space 2}-.0923083 {txt:(mean)}}{p_end}
{p2colreset}{...}
{txt}{p2colset 1 14 16 2}{...}
{p2col: }{space 2}{res:{txt:population_z}{space 4}{txt:=} {space 2}-.0075523 {txt:(mean)}}{p_end}
{p2colreset}{...}

{res}{txt}{hline 13}{c TT}{hline 11}{hline 11}{hline 9}{hline 8}{hline 13}{hline 12}
{col 14}{c |}{col 26} Delta-method
{col 14}{c |}      dy/dx{col 26}   Std. Err.{col 38}      z{col 46}   P>|z|{col 54}     [95% Con{col 67}f. Interval]
{hline 13}{c +}{hline 11}{hline 11}{hline 9}{hline 8}{hline 13}{hline 12}
pts_stateDep {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2}-.0170627{col 26}{space 2} .0426925{col 37}{space 1}   -0.40{col 46}{space 3}0.689{col 54}{space 4}-.1007385{col 67}{space 3} .0666132
{txt}{hline 13}{c BT}{hline 11}{hline 11}{hline 9}{hline 8}{hline 13}{hline 12}
{res}{txt}
{com}. matrix table = r(table)
{txt}
{com}. gen low = table[1,1] - 1.96*table[2,1] in 1
{txt}(3,612 missing values generated)

{com}. gen high = table[1,1] + 1.96*table[2,1] in 1
{txt}(3,612 missing values generated)

{com}. gen est = table[1,1] in 1
{txt}(3,612 missing values generated)

{com}. margins, dydx(pts_stateDep) at(ICCPR_ratif =(1) ) atmeans
{res}
{txt}Conditional marginal effects{col 49}Number of obs{col 67}= {res}     2,730
{txt}Model VCE{col 14}: {res}Conventional

{txt}{p2colset 1 14 16 2}{...}
{p2col:Expression}:{space 1}{res:Negative binomial prediction, predict()}{p_end}
{p2colreset}{...}
{txt}{p2colset 1 14 16 2}{...}
{p2col:dy/dx w.r.t.}:{space 1}{res:pts_stateDep}{p_end}
{p2colreset}{...}
{txt}{p2colset 1 14 16 2}{...}
{p2col:at}:{space 1}{res:{txt:pts_stateDep}{space 4}{txt:=} {space 3}2.572161 {txt:(mean)}}{p_end}
{p2colreset}{...}
{txt}{p2colset 1 14 16 2}{...}
{p2col: }{space 2}{res:{txt:ICCPR_ratif}{space 5}{txt:=} {space 10}1}{p_end}
{p2colreset}{...}
{txt}{p2colset 1 14 16 2}{...}
{p2col: }{space 2}{res:{txt:protest_Cl~1}{space 4}{txt:=} {space 3}.9611858 {txt:(mean)}}{p_end}
{p2colreset}{...}
{txt}{p2colset 1 14 16 2}{...}
{p2col: }{space 2}{res:{txt:exconst}{space 9}{txt:=} {space 3}4.940659 {txt:(mean)}}{p_end}
{p2colreset}{...}
{txt}{p2colset 1 14 16 2}{...}
{p2col: }{space 2}{res:{txt:youthBulgeln}{space 4}{txt:=} {space 3}2.888049 {txt:(mean)}}{p_end}
{p2colreset}{...}
{txt}{p2colset 1 14 16 2}{...}
{p2col: }{space 2}{res:{txt:v2x_juconln}{space 5}{txt:=} {space 2}-.7291509 {txt:(mean)}}{p_end}
{p2colreset}{...}
{txt}{p2colset 1 14 16 2}{...}
{p2col: }{space 2}{res:{txt:conflictYear}{space 4}{txt:=} {space 3}.1611722 {txt:(mean)}}{p_end}
{p2colreset}{...}
{txt}{p2colset 1 14 16 2}{...}
{p2col: }{space 2}{res:{txt:gdpPerCapi~z}{space 4}{txt:=} {space 2}-.0923083 {txt:(mean)}}{p_end}
{p2colreset}{...}
{txt}{p2colset 1 14 16 2}{...}
{p2col: }{space 2}{res:{txt:population_z}{space 4}{txt:=} {space 2}-.0075523 {txt:(mean)}}{p_end}
{p2colreset}{...}

{res}{txt}{hline 13}{c TT}{hline 11}{hline 11}{hline 9}{hline 8}{hline 13}{hline 12}
{col 14}{c |}{col 26} Delta-method
{col 14}{c |}      dy/dx{col 26}   Std. Err.{col 38}      z{col 46}   P>|z|{col 54}     [95% Con{col 67}f. Interval]
{hline 13}{c +}{hline 11}{hline 11}{hline 9}{hline 8}{hline 13}{hline 12}
pts_stateDep {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2} .1892048{col 26}{space 2} .0166434{col 37}{space 1}   11.37{col 46}{space 3}0.000{col 54}{space 4} .1565843{col 67}{space 3} .2218254
{txt}{hline 13}{c BT}{hline 11}{hline 11}{hline 9}{hline 8}{hline 13}{hline 12}
{res}{txt}
{com}. matrix table = r(table)
{txt}
{com}. matri list table
{res}
{txt}table[9,1]
        pts_stateDep
     b {res}    .18920485
{txt}    se {res}    .01664344
{txt}     z {res}    11.368133
{txt}pvalue {res}    6.026e-30
{txt}    ll {res}     .1565843
{txt}    ul {res}    .22182539
{txt}    df {res}            .
{txt}  crit {res}     1.959964
{txt} eform {res}            0
{reset}
{com}. replace low = table[1,1] - 1.96*table[2,1] in 2
{txt}(1 real change made)

{com}. replace high = table[1,1] + 1.96*table[2,1] in 2
{txt}(1 real change made)

{com}. replace est = table[1,1] in 2
{txt}(1 real change made)

{com}. gen x = 1 in 1
{txt}(3,612 missing values generated)

{com}. replace x = 2 in 2
{txt}(1 real change made)

{com}. #delimit ;
{txt}delimiter now ;
{com}. twoway scatter est x, xsca(r(0.5 2.5))  xlabel(1 "ICCPR not ratified" 2 "ICCPR ratified") xtitle("") yline(0) mcolor(gs10) msize(medlarge) ||
> rcap low high x,  lcolor(gs10) lwidth(medthick) ytitle("Predicted effect of PTS on restrictions") ||
> scatter est x in 2, mcolor(gs0) msize(medlarge) ||
> rcap low high x in 2, lcolor(gs0)  lwidth(medthick)
> scheme(p2bar) graphregion(fcolor(white) lstyle(none)) legend(off) ;
{txt}(note: scheme p2bar not found, using s2color)
{res}{txt}
{com}. graph export ".\Figures\Figure5.png", replace ;
{txt}(file .\Figures\Figure5.png written in PNG format)

{com}. #delimit cr
{txt}delimiter now cr
{com}. 
. 
. * Figure 6
. capture drop low 
{txt}
{com}. capture drop high 
{txt}
{com}. capture drop x 
{txt}
{com}. capture drop est
{txt}
{com}. margins, dydx(ICCPR_ratif) at(pts_stateDep =(1) ) atmeans
{res}
{txt}Conditional marginal effects{col 49}Number of obs{col 67}= {res}     2,730
{txt}Model VCE{col 14}: {res}Conventional

{txt}{p2colset 1 14 16 2}{...}
{p2col:Expression}:{space 1}{res:Negative binomial prediction, predict()}{p_end}
{p2colreset}{...}
{txt}{p2colset 1 14 16 2}{...}
{p2col:dy/dx w.r.t.}:{space 1}{res:1.ICCPR_ratif}{p_end}
{p2colreset}{...}
{txt}{p2colset 1 14 16 2}{...}
{p2col:at}:{space 1}{res:{txt:pts_stateDep}{space 4}{txt:=} {space 10}1}{p_end}
{p2colreset}{...}
{txt}{p2colset 1 14 16 2}{...}
{p2col: }{space 2}{res:{txt:0.ICCPR_ra~f}{space 4}{txt:=} {space 3}.0882784 {txt:(mean)}}{p_end}
{p2colreset}{...}
{txt}{p2colset 1 14 16 2}{...}
{p2col: }{space 2}{res:{txt:1.ICCPR_ra~f}{space 4}{txt:=} {space 3}.9117216 {txt:(mean)}}{p_end}
{p2colreset}{...}
{txt}{p2colset 1 14 16 2}{...}
{p2col: }{space 2}{res:{txt:protest_Cl~1}{space 4}{txt:=} {space 3}.9611858 {txt:(mean)}}{p_end}
{p2colreset}{...}
{txt}{p2colset 1 14 16 2}{...}
{p2col: }{space 2}{res:{txt:exconst}{space 9}{txt:=} {space 3}4.940659 {txt:(mean)}}{p_end}
{p2colreset}{...}
{txt}{p2colset 1 14 16 2}{...}
{p2col: }{space 2}{res:{txt:youthBulgeln}{space 4}{txt:=} {space 3}2.888049 {txt:(mean)}}{p_end}
{p2colreset}{...}
{txt}{p2colset 1 14 16 2}{...}
{p2col: }{space 2}{res:{txt:v2x_juconln}{space 5}{txt:=} {space 2}-.7291509 {txt:(mean)}}{p_end}
{p2colreset}{...}
{txt}{p2colset 1 14 16 2}{...}
{p2col: }{space 2}{res:{txt:conflictYear}{space 4}{txt:=} {space 3}.1611722 {txt:(mean)}}{p_end}
{p2colreset}{...}
{txt}{p2colset 1 14 16 2}{...}
{p2col: }{space 2}{res:{txt:gdpPerCapi~z}{space 4}{txt:=} {space 2}-.0923083 {txt:(mean)}}{p_end}
{p2colreset}{...}
{txt}{p2colset 1 14 16 2}{...}
{p2col: }{space 2}{res:{txt:population_z}{space 4}{txt:=} {space 2}-.0075523 {txt:(mean)}}{p_end}
{p2colreset}{...}

{res}{txt}{hline 16}{c TT}{hline 11}{hline 11}{hline 9}{hline 8}{hline 13}{hline 12}
{col 17}{c |}{col 29} Delta-method
{col 17}{c |}      dy/dx{col 29}   Std. Err.{col 41}      z{col 49}   P>|z|{col 57}     [95% Con{col 70}f. Interval]
{hline 16}{c +}{hline 11}{hline 11}{hline 9}{hline 8}{hline 13}{hline 12}
{space 4}ICCPR_ratif {c |}
ICCPR ratified  {c |}{col 17}{res}{space 2}-.3297454{col 29}{space 2} .1306279{col 40}{space 1}   -2.52{col 49}{space 3}0.012{col 57}{space 4}-.5857713{col 70}{space 3}-.0737195
{txt}{hline 16}{c BT}{hline 11}{hline 11}{hline 9}{hline 8}{hline 13}{hline 12}
{p 0 6 0 81}Note: dy/dx for factor levels is the discrete change from the base level.{txt}{p_end}
{res}{txt}
{com}. matrix table = r(table)
{txt}
{com}. matrix list table
{res}
{txt}table[9,2]
                 0b.           1.
        ICCPR_ratif  ICCPR_ratif
     b {res}           0   -.32974541
{txt}    se {res}           .    .13062788
{txt}     z {res}           .   -2.5243112
{txt}pvalue {res}           .    .01159253
{txt}    ll {res}           .   -.58577134
{txt}    ul {res}           .   -.07371947
{txt}    df {res}           .            .
{txt}  crit {res}    1.959964     1.959964
{txt} eform {res}           0            0
{reset}
{com}. gen low = table[1,2] - 1.96*table[2,2] in 1
{txt}(3,612 missing values generated)

{com}. gen high = table[1,2] + 1.96*table[2,2] in 1
{txt}(3,612 missing values generated)

{com}. gen est = table[1,2] in 1
{txt}(3,612 missing values generated)

{com}. margins, dydx(ICCPR_ratif) at(pts_stateDep =(5) ) atmeans
{res}
{txt}Conditional marginal effects{col 49}Number of obs{col 67}= {res}     2,730
{txt}Model VCE{col 14}: {res}Conventional

{txt}{p2colset 1 14 16 2}{...}
{p2col:Expression}:{space 1}{res:Negative binomial prediction, predict()}{p_end}
{p2colreset}{...}
{txt}{p2colset 1 14 16 2}{...}
{p2col:dy/dx w.r.t.}:{space 1}{res:1.ICCPR_ratif}{p_end}
{p2colreset}{...}
{txt}{p2colset 1 14 16 2}{...}
{p2col:at}:{space 1}{res:{txt:pts_stateDep}{space 4}{txt:=} {space 10}5}{p_end}
{p2colreset}{...}
{txt}{p2colset 1 14 16 2}{...}
{p2col: }{space 2}{res:{txt:0.ICCPR_ra~f}{space 4}{txt:=} {space 3}.0882784 {txt:(mean)}}{p_end}
{p2colreset}{...}
{txt}{p2colset 1 14 16 2}{...}
{p2col: }{space 2}{res:{txt:1.ICCPR_ra~f}{space 4}{txt:=} {space 3}.9117216 {txt:(mean)}}{p_end}
{p2colreset}{...}
{txt}{p2colset 1 14 16 2}{...}
{p2col: }{space 2}{res:{txt:protest_Cl~1}{space 4}{txt:=} {space 3}.9611858 {txt:(mean)}}{p_end}
{p2colreset}{...}
{txt}{p2colset 1 14 16 2}{...}
{p2col: }{space 2}{res:{txt:exconst}{space 9}{txt:=} {space 3}4.940659 {txt:(mean)}}{p_end}
{p2colreset}{...}
{txt}{p2colset 1 14 16 2}{...}
{p2col: }{space 2}{res:{txt:youthBulgeln}{space 4}{txt:=} {space 3}2.888049 {txt:(mean)}}{p_end}
{p2colreset}{...}
{txt}{p2colset 1 14 16 2}{...}
{p2col: }{space 2}{res:{txt:v2x_juconln}{space 5}{txt:=} {space 2}-.7291509 {txt:(mean)}}{p_end}
{p2colreset}{...}
{txt}{p2colset 1 14 16 2}{...}
{p2col: }{space 2}{res:{txt:conflictYear}{space 4}{txt:=} {space 3}.1611722 {txt:(mean)}}{p_end}
{p2colreset}{...}
{txt}{p2colset 1 14 16 2}{...}
{p2col: }{space 2}{res:{txt:gdpPerCapi~z}{space 4}{txt:=} {space 2}-.0923083 {txt:(mean)}}{p_end}
{p2colreset}{...}
{txt}{p2colset 1 14 16 2}{...}
{p2col: }{space 2}{res:{txt:population_z}{space 4}{txt:=} {space 2}-.0075523 {txt:(mean)}}{p_end}
{p2colreset}{...}

{res}{txt}{hline 16}{c TT}{hline 11}{hline 11}{hline 9}{hline 8}{hline 13}{hline 12}
{col 17}{c |}{col 29} Delta-method
{col 17}{c |}      dy/dx{col 29}   Std. Err.{col 41}      z{col 49}   P>|z|{col 57}     [95% Con{col 70}f. Interval]
{hline 16}{c +}{hline 11}{hline 11}{hline 9}{hline 8}{hline 13}{hline 12}
{space 4}ICCPR_ratif {c |}
ICCPR ratified  {c |}{col 17}{res}{space 2} .7840372{col 29}{space 2} .1483559{col 40}{space 1}    5.28{col 49}{space 3}0.000{col 57}{space 4}  .493265{col 70}{space 3} 1.074809
{txt}{hline 16}{c BT}{hline 11}{hline 11}{hline 9}{hline 8}{hline 13}{hline 12}
{p 0 6 0 81}Note: dy/dx for factor levels is the discrete change from the base level.{txt}{p_end}
{res}{txt}
{com}. matrix table = r(table)
{txt}
{com}. replace low = table[1,2] - 1.96*table[2,2] in 2
{txt}(1 real change made)

{com}. replace high = table[1,2] + 1.96*table[2,2] in 2
{txt}(1 real change made)

{com}. replace est = table[1,2] in 2
{txt}(1 real change made)

{com}. gen x = 1 in 1
{txt}(3,612 missing values generated)

{com}. replace x = 2 in 2
{txt}(1 real change made)

{com}. #delimit ;
{txt}delimiter now ;
{com}. twoway scatter est x, xsca(r(0.5 2.5)) ysca(r(-0.5 0.5)) xlabel(1 "PTS low" 2 "PTS high") xtitle("") yline(0) mcolor(gs10) msize(medlarge) ||
> rcap low high x,  lcolor(gs10) lwidth(medthick) ytitle("Predicted effect of ICCPR on restrictions") ||
> scatter est x in 2, mcolor(gs0) msize(medlarge) ||
> rcap low high x in 2, lcolor(gs0)  lwidth(medthick)
> scheme(p2bar) graphregion(fcolor(white) lstyle(none)) legend(off) ;
{txt}(note: scheme p2bar not found, using s2color)
{res}{txt}
{com}. graph export ".\Figures\Figure6.png", replace ;
{txt}(file .\Figures\Figure6.png written in PNG format)

{com}. #delimit cr
{txt}delimiter now cr
{com}. 
. 
. * Figure 4
. margins, predict(mu) at(pts_stateDep = (1(1)5) ICCPR_ratif =(0 1) ) atmeans
{res}
{txt}Adjusted predictions{col 49}Number of obs{col 67}= {res}     2,730
{txt}Model VCE{col 14}: {res}Conventional

{txt}{p2colset 1 14 16 2}{...}
{p2col:Expression}:{space 1}{res:Negative binomial prediction, predict(mu)}{p_end}
{p2colreset}{...}

{txt}{p2colset 1 14 16 2}{...}
{p2col:1._at}:{space 1}{res:{txt:pts_stateDep}{space 4}{txt:=} {space 10}1}{p_end}
{p2colreset}{...}
{txt}{p2colset 1 14 16 2}{...}
{p2col: }{space 2}{res:{txt:ICCPR_ratif}{space 5}{txt:=} {space 10}0}{p_end}
{p2colreset}{...}
{txt}{p2colset 1 14 16 2}{...}
{p2col: }{space 2}{res:{txt:protest_Cl~1}{space 4}{txt:=} {space 3}.9611858 {txt:(mean)}}{p_end}
{p2colreset}{...}
{txt}{p2colset 1 14 16 2}{...}
{p2col: }{space 2}{res:{txt:exconst}{space 9}{txt:=} {space 3}4.940659 {txt:(mean)}}{p_end}
{p2colreset}{...}
{txt}{p2colset 1 14 16 2}{...}
{p2col: }{space 2}{res:{txt:youthBulgeln}{space 4}{txt:=} {space 3}2.888049 {txt:(mean)}}{p_end}
{p2colreset}{...}
{txt}{p2colset 1 14 16 2}{...}
{p2col: }{space 2}{res:{txt:v2x_juconln}{space 5}{txt:=} {space 2}-.7291509 {txt:(mean)}}{p_end}
{p2colreset}{...}
{txt}{p2colset 1 14 16 2}{...}
{p2col: }{space 2}{res:{txt:conflictYear}{space 4}{txt:=} {space 3}.1611722 {txt:(mean)}}{p_end}
{p2colreset}{...}
{txt}{p2colset 1 14 16 2}{...}
{p2col: }{space 2}{res:{txt:gdpPerCapi~z}{space 4}{txt:=} {space 2}-.0923083 {txt:(mean)}}{p_end}
{p2colreset}{...}
{txt}{p2colset 1 14 16 2}{...}
{p2col: }{space 2}{res:{txt:population_z}{space 4}{txt:=} {space 2}-.0075523 {txt:(mean)}}{p_end}
{p2colreset}{...}

{txt}{p2colset 1 14 16 2}{...}
{p2col:2._at}:{space 1}{res:{txt:pts_stateDep}{space 4}{txt:=} {space 10}1}{p_end}
{p2colreset}{...}
{txt}{p2colset 1 14 16 2}{...}
{p2col: }{space 2}{res:{txt:ICCPR_ratif}{space 5}{txt:=} {space 10}1}{p_end}
{p2colreset}{...}
{txt}{p2colset 1 14 16 2}{...}
{p2col: }{space 2}{res:{txt:protest_Cl~1}{space 4}{txt:=} {space 3}.9611858 {txt:(mean)}}{p_end}
{p2colreset}{...}
{txt}{p2colset 1 14 16 2}{...}
{p2col: }{space 2}{res:{txt:exconst}{space 9}{txt:=} {space 3}4.940659 {txt:(mean)}}{p_end}
{p2colreset}{...}
{txt}{p2colset 1 14 16 2}{...}
{p2col: }{space 2}{res:{txt:youthBulgeln}{space 4}{txt:=} {space 3}2.888049 {txt:(mean)}}{p_end}
{p2colreset}{...}
{txt}{p2colset 1 14 16 2}{...}
{p2col: }{space 2}{res:{txt:v2x_juconln}{space 5}{txt:=} {space 2}-.7291509 {txt:(mean)}}{p_end}
{p2colreset}{...}
{txt}{p2colset 1 14 16 2}{...}
{p2col: }{space 2}{res:{txt:conflictYear}{space 4}{txt:=} {space 3}.1611722 {txt:(mean)}}{p_end}
{p2colreset}{...}
{txt}{p2colset 1 14 16 2}{...}
{p2col: }{space 2}{res:{txt:gdpPerCapi~z}{space 4}{txt:=} {space 2}-.0923083 {txt:(mean)}}{p_end}
{p2colreset}{...}
{txt}{p2colset 1 14 16 2}{...}
{p2col: }{space 2}{res:{txt:population_z}{space 4}{txt:=} {space 2}-.0075523 {txt:(mean)}}{p_end}
{p2colreset}{...}

{txt}{p2colset 1 14 16 2}{...}
{p2col:3._at}:{space 1}{res:{txt:pts_stateDep}{space 4}{txt:=} {space 10}2}{p_end}
{p2colreset}{...}
{txt}{p2colset 1 14 16 2}{...}
{p2col: }{space 2}{res:{txt:ICCPR_ratif}{space 5}{txt:=} {space 10}0}{p_end}
{p2colreset}{...}
{txt}{p2colset 1 14 16 2}{...}
{p2col: }{space 2}{res:{txt:protest_Cl~1}{space 4}{txt:=} {space 3}.9611858 {txt:(mean)}}{p_end}
{p2colreset}{...}
{txt}{p2colset 1 14 16 2}{...}
{p2col: }{space 2}{res:{txt:exconst}{space 9}{txt:=} {space 3}4.940659 {txt:(mean)}}{p_end}
{p2colreset}{...}
{txt}{p2colset 1 14 16 2}{...}
{p2col: }{space 2}{res:{txt:youthBulgeln}{space 4}{txt:=} {space 3}2.888049 {txt:(mean)}}{p_end}
{p2colreset}{...}
{txt}{p2colset 1 14 16 2}{...}
{p2col: }{space 2}{res:{txt:v2x_juconln}{space 5}{txt:=} {space 2}-.7291509 {txt:(mean)}}{p_end}
{p2colreset}{...}
{txt}{p2colset 1 14 16 2}{...}
{p2col: }{space 2}{res:{txt:conflictYear}{space 4}{txt:=} {space 3}.1611722 {txt:(mean)}}{p_end}
{p2colreset}{...}
{txt}{p2colset 1 14 16 2}{...}
{p2col: }{space 2}{res:{txt:gdpPerCapi~z}{space 4}{txt:=} {space 2}-.0923083 {txt:(mean)}}{p_end}
{p2colreset}{...}
{txt}{p2colset 1 14 16 2}{...}
{p2col: }{space 2}{res:{txt:population_z}{space 4}{txt:=} {space 2}-.0075523 {txt:(mean)}}{p_end}
{p2colreset}{...}

{txt}{p2colset 1 14 16 2}{...}
{p2col:4._at}:{space 1}{res:{txt:pts_stateDep}{space 4}{txt:=} {space 10}2}{p_end}
{p2colreset}{...}
{txt}{p2colset 1 14 16 2}{...}
{p2col: }{space 2}{res:{txt:ICCPR_ratif}{space 5}{txt:=} {space 10}1}{p_end}
{p2colreset}{...}
{txt}{p2colset 1 14 16 2}{...}
{p2col: }{space 2}{res:{txt:protest_Cl~1}{space 4}{txt:=} {space 3}.9611858 {txt:(mean)}}{p_end}
{p2colreset}{...}
{txt}{p2colset 1 14 16 2}{...}
{p2col: }{space 2}{res:{txt:exconst}{space 9}{txt:=} {space 3}4.940659 {txt:(mean)}}{p_end}
{p2colreset}{...}
{txt}{p2colset 1 14 16 2}{...}
{p2col: }{space 2}{res:{txt:youthBulgeln}{space 4}{txt:=} {space 3}2.888049 {txt:(mean)}}{p_end}
{p2colreset}{...}
{txt}{p2colset 1 14 16 2}{...}
{p2col: }{space 2}{res:{txt:v2x_juconln}{space 5}{txt:=} {space 2}-.7291509 {txt:(mean)}}{p_end}
{p2colreset}{...}
{txt}{p2colset 1 14 16 2}{...}
{p2col: }{space 2}{res:{txt:conflictYear}{space 4}{txt:=} {space 3}.1611722 {txt:(mean)}}{p_end}
{p2colreset}{...}
{txt}{p2colset 1 14 16 2}{...}
{p2col: }{space 2}{res:{txt:gdpPerCapi~z}{space 4}{txt:=} {space 2}-.0923083 {txt:(mean)}}{p_end}
{p2colreset}{...}
{txt}{p2colset 1 14 16 2}{...}
{p2col: }{space 2}{res:{txt:population_z}{space 4}{txt:=} {space 2}-.0075523 {txt:(mean)}}{p_end}
{p2colreset}{...}

{txt}{p2colset 1 14 16 2}{...}
{p2col:5._at}:{space 1}{res:{txt:pts_stateDep}{space 4}{txt:=} {space 10}3}{p_end}
{p2colreset}{...}
{txt}{p2colset 1 14 16 2}{...}
{p2col: }{space 2}{res:{txt:ICCPR_ratif}{space 5}{txt:=} {space 10}0}{p_end}
{p2colreset}{...}
{txt}{p2colset 1 14 16 2}{...}
{p2col: }{space 2}{res:{txt:protest_Cl~1}{space 4}{txt:=} {space 3}.9611858 {txt:(mean)}}{p_end}
{p2colreset}{...}
{txt}{p2colset 1 14 16 2}{...}
{p2col: }{space 2}{res:{txt:exconst}{space 9}{txt:=} {space 3}4.940659 {txt:(mean)}}{p_end}
{p2colreset}{...}
{txt}{p2colset 1 14 16 2}{...}
{p2col: }{space 2}{res:{txt:youthBulgeln}{space 4}{txt:=} {space 3}2.888049 {txt:(mean)}}{p_end}
{p2colreset}{...}
{txt}{p2colset 1 14 16 2}{...}
{p2col: }{space 2}{res:{txt:v2x_juconln}{space 5}{txt:=} {space 2}-.7291509 {txt:(mean)}}{p_end}
{p2colreset}{...}
{txt}{p2colset 1 14 16 2}{...}
{p2col: }{space 2}{res:{txt:conflictYear}{space 4}{txt:=} {space 3}.1611722 {txt:(mean)}}{p_end}
{p2colreset}{...}
{txt}{p2colset 1 14 16 2}{...}
{p2col: }{space 2}{res:{txt:gdpPerCapi~z}{space 4}{txt:=} {space 2}-.0923083 {txt:(mean)}}{p_end}
{p2colreset}{...}
{txt}{p2colset 1 14 16 2}{...}
{p2col: }{space 2}{res:{txt:population_z}{space 4}{txt:=} {space 2}-.0075523 {txt:(mean)}}{p_end}
{p2colreset}{...}

{txt}{p2colset 1 14 16 2}{...}
{p2col:6._at}:{space 1}{res:{txt:pts_stateDep}{space 4}{txt:=} {space 10}3}{p_end}
{p2colreset}{...}
{txt}{p2colset 1 14 16 2}{...}
{p2col: }{space 2}{res:{txt:ICCPR_ratif}{space 5}{txt:=} {space 10}1}{p_end}
{p2colreset}{...}
{txt}{p2colset 1 14 16 2}{...}
{p2col: }{space 2}{res:{txt:protest_Cl~1}{space 4}{txt:=} {space 3}.9611858 {txt:(mean)}}{p_end}
{p2colreset}{...}
{txt}{p2colset 1 14 16 2}{...}
{p2col: }{space 2}{res:{txt:exconst}{space 9}{txt:=} {space 3}4.940659 {txt:(mean)}}{p_end}
{p2colreset}{...}
{txt}{p2colset 1 14 16 2}{...}
{p2col: }{space 2}{res:{txt:youthBulgeln}{space 4}{txt:=} {space 3}2.888049 {txt:(mean)}}{p_end}
{p2colreset}{...}
{txt}{p2colset 1 14 16 2}{...}
{p2col: }{space 2}{res:{txt:v2x_juconln}{space 5}{txt:=} {space 2}-.7291509 {txt:(mean)}}{p_end}
{p2colreset}{...}
{txt}{p2colset 1 14 16 2}{...}
{p2col: }{space 2}{res:{txt:conflictYear}{space 4}{txt:=} {space 3}.1611722 {txt:(mean)}}{p_end}
{p2colreset}{...}
{txt}{p2colset 1 14 16 2}{...}
{p2col: }{space 2}{res:{txt:gdpPerCapi~z}{space 4}{txt:=} {space 2}-.0923083 {txt:(mean)}}{p_end}
{p2colreset}{...}
{txt}{p2colset 1 14 16 2}{...}
{p2col: }{space 2}{res:{txt:population_z}{space 4}{txt:=} {space 2}-.0075523 {txt:(mean)}}{p_end}
{p2colreset}{...}

{txt}{p2colset 1 14 16 2}{...}
{p2col:7._at}:{space 1}{res:{txt:pts_stateDep}{space 4}{txt:=} {space 10}4}{p_end}
{p2colreset}{...}
{txt}{p2colset 1 14 16 2}{...}
{p2col: }{space 2}{res:{txt:ICCPR_ratif}{space 5}{txt:=} {space 10}0}{p_end}
{p2colreset}{...}
{txt}{p2colset 1 14 16 2}{...}
{p2col: }{space 2}{res:{txt:protest_Cl~1}{space 4}{txt:=} {space 3}.9611858 {txt:(mean)}}{p_end}
{p2colreset}{...}
{txt}{p2colset 1 14 16 2}{...}
{p2col: }{space 2}{res:{txt:exconst}{space 9}{txt:=} {space 3}4.940659 {txt:(mean)}}{p_end}
{p2colreset}{...}
{txt}{p2colset 1 14 16 2}{...}
{p2col: }{space 2}{res:{txt:youthBulgeln}{space 4}{txt:=} {space 3}2.888049 {txt:(mean)}}{p_end}
{p2colreset}{...}
{txt}{p2colset 1 14 16 2}{...}
{p2col: }{space 2}{res:{txt:v2x_juconln}{space 5}{txt:=} {space 2}-.7291509 {txt:(mean)}}{p_end}
{p2colreset}{...}
{txt}{p2colset 1 14 16 2}{...}
{p2col: }{space 2}{res:{txt:conflictYear}{space 4}{txt:=} {space 3}.1611722 {txt:(mean)}}{p_end}
{p2colreset}{...}
{txt}{p2colset 1 14 16 2}{...}
{p2col: }{space 2}{res:{txt:gdpPerCapi~z}{space 4}{txt:=} {space 2}-.0923083 {txt:(mean)}}{p_end}
{p2colreset}{...}
{txt}{p2colset 1 14 16 2}{...}
{p2col: }{space 2}{res:{txt:population_z}{space 4}{txt:=} {space 2}-.0075523 {txt:(mean)}}{p_end}
{p2colreset}{...}

{txt}{p2colset 1 14 16 2}{...}
{p2col:8._at}:{space 1}{res:{txt:pts_stateDep}{space 4}{txt:=} {space 10}4}{p_end}
{p2colreset}{...}
{txt}{p2colset 1 14 16 2}{...}
{p2col: }{space 2}{res:{txt:ICCPR_ratif}{space 5}{txt:=} {space 10}1}{p_end}
{p2colreset}{...}
{txt}{p2colset 1 14 16 2}{...}
{p2col: }{space 2}{res:{txt:protest_Cl~1}{space 4}{txt:=} {space 3}.9611858 {txt:(mean)}}{p_end}
{p2colreset}{...}
{txt}{p2colset 1 14 16 2}{...}
{p2col: }{space 2}{res:{txt:exconst}{space 9}{txt:=} {space 3}4.940659 {txt:(mean)}}{p_end}
{p2colreset}{...}
{txt}{p2colset 1 14 16 2}{...}
{p2col: }{space 2}{res:{txt:youthBulgeln}{space 4}{txt:=} {space 3}2.888049 {txt:(mean)}}{p_end}
{p2colreset}{...}
{txt}{p2colset 1 14 16 2}{...}
{p2col: }{space 2}{res:{txt:v2x_juconln}{space 5}{txt:=} {space 2}-.7291509 {txt:(mean)}}{p_end}
{p2colreset}{...}
{txt}{p2colset 1 14 16 2}{...}
{p2col: }{space 2}{res:{txt:conflictYear}{space 4}{txt:=} {space 3}.1611722 {txt:(mean)}}{p_end}
{p2colreset}{...}
{txt}{p2colset 1 14 16 2}{...}
{p2col: }{space 2}{res:{txt:gdpPerCapi~z}{space 4}{txt:=} {space 2}-.0923083 {txt:(mean)}}{p_end}
{p2colreset}{...}
{txt}{p2colset 1 14 16 2}{...}
{p2col: }{space 2}{res:{txt:population_z}{space 4}{txt:=} {space 2}-.0075523 {txt:(mean)}}{p_end}
{p2colreset}{...}

{txt}{p2colset 1 14 16 2}{...}
{p2col:9._at}:{space 1}{res:{txt:pts_stateDep}{space 4}{txt:=} {space 10}5}{p_end}
{p2colreset}{...}
{txt}{p2colset 1 14 16 2}{...}
{p2col: }{space 2}{res:{txt:ICCPR_ratif}{space 5}{txt:=} {space 10}0}{p_end}
{p2colreset}{...}
{txt}{p2colset 1 14 16 2}{...}
{p2col: }{space 2}{res:{txt:protest_Cl~1}{space 4}{txt:=} {space 3}.9611858 {txt:(mean)}}{p_end}
{p2colreset}{...}
{txt}{p2colset 1 14 16 2}{...}
{p2col: }{space 2}{res:{txt:exconst}{space 9}{txt:=} {space 3}4.940659 {txt:(mean)}}{p_end}
{p2colreset}{...}
{txt}{p2colset 1 14 16 2}{...}
{p2col: }{space 2}{res:{txt:youthBulgeln}{space 4}{txt:=} {space 3}2.888049 {txt:(mean)}}{p_end}
{p2colreset}{...}
{txt}{p2colset 1 14 16 2}{...}
{p2col: }{space 2}{res:{txt:v2x_juconln}{space 5}{txt:=} {space 2}-.7291509 {txt:(mean)}}{p_end}
{p2colreset}{...}
{txt}{p2colset 1 14 16 2}{...}
{p2col: }{space 2}{res:{txt:conflictYear}{space 4}{txt:=} {space 3}.1611722 {txt:(mean)}}{p_end}
{p2colreset}{...}
{txt}{p2colset 1 14 16 2}{...}
{p2col: }{space 2}{res:{txt:gdpPerCapi~z}{space 4}{txt:=} {space 2}-.0923083 {txt:(mean)}}{p_end}
{p2colreset}{...}
{txt}{p2colset 1 14 16 2}{...}
{p2col: }{space 2}{res:{txt:population_z}{space 4}{txt:=} {space 2}-.0075523 {txt:(mean)}}{p_end}
{p2colreset}{...}

{txt}{p2colset 1 14 16 2}{...}
{p2col:10._at}:{space 1}{res:{txt:pts_stateDep}{space 4}{txt:=} {space 10}5}{p_end}
{p2colreset}{...}
{txt}{p2colset 1 14 16 2}{...}
{p2col: }{space 2}{res:{txt:ICCPR_ratif}{space 5}{txt:=} {space 10}1}{p_end}
{p2colreset}{...}
{txt}{p2colset 1 14 16 2}{...}
{p2col: }{space 2}{res:{txt:protest_Cl~1}{space 4}{txt:=} {space 3}.9611858 {txt:(mean)}}{p_end}
{p2colreset}{...}
{txt}{p2colset 1 14 16 2}{...}
{p2col: }{space 2}{res:{txt:exconst}{space 9}{txt:=} {space 3}4.940659 {txt:(mean)}}{p_end}
{p2colreset}{...}
{txt}{p2colset 1 14 16 2}{...}
{p2col: }{space 2}{res:{txt:youthBulgeln}{space 4}{txt:=} {space 3}2.888049 {txt:(mean)}}{p_end}
{p2colreset}{...}
{txt}{p2colset 1 14 16 2}{...}
{p2col: }{space 2}{res:{txt:v2x_juconln}{space 5}{txt:=} {space 2}-.7291509 {txt:(mean)}}{p_end}
{p2colreset}{...}
{txt}{p2colset 1 14 16 2}{...}
{p2col: }{space 2}{res:{txt:conflictYear}{space 4}{txt:=} {space 3}.1611722 {txt:(mean)}}{p_end}
{p2colreset}{...}
{txt}{p2colset 1 14 16 2}{...}
{p2col: }{space 2}{res:{txt:gdpPerCapi~z}{space 4}{txt:=} {space 2}-.0923083 {txt:(mean)}}{p_end}
{p2colreset}{...}
{txt}{p2colset 1 14 16 2}{...}
{p2col: }{space 2}{res:{txt:population_z}{space 4}{txt:=} {space 2}-.0075523 {txt:(mean)}}{p_end}
{p2colreset}{...}

{res}{txt}{hline 13}{c TT}{hline 11}{hline 11}{hline 9}{hline 8}{hline 13}{hline 12}
{col 14}{c |}{col 26} Delta-method
{col 14}{c |}     Margin{col 26}   Std. Err.{col 38}      z{col 46}   P>|z|{col 54}     [95% Con{col 67}f. Interval]
{hline 13}{c +}{hline 11}{hline 11}{hline 9}{hline 8}{hline 13}{hline 12}
{space 9}_at {c |}
{space 10}1  {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2} .8276141{col 26}{space 2} .1326016{col 37}{space 1}    6.24{col 46}{space 3}0.000{col 54}{space 4} .5677197{col 67}{space 3} 1.087509
{txt}{space 10}2  {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2} .4978687{col 26}{space 2} .0381112{col 37}{space 1}   13.06{col 46}{space 3}0.000{col 54}{space 4} .4231721{col 67}{space 3} .5725653
{txt}{space 10}3  {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2} .8099733{col 26}{space 2} .1064281{col 37}{space 1}    7.61{col 46}{space 3}0.000{col 54}{space 4}  .601378{col 67}{space 3} 1.018569
{txt}{space 10}4  {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2} .6296852{col 26}{space 2} .0438661{col 37}{space 1}   14.35{col 46}{space 3}0.000{col 54}{space 4} .5437092{col 67}{space 3} .7156612
{txt}{space 10}5  {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2} .7928717{col 26}{space 2} .0960712{col 37}{space 1}    8.25{col 46}{space 3}0.000{col 54}{space 4} .6045755{col 67}{space 3} .9811679
{txt}{space 10}6  {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2} .8154002{col 26}{space 2} .0540261{col 37}{space 1}   15.09{col 46}{space 3}0.000{col 54}{space 4} .7095109{col 67}{space 3} .9212895
{txt}{space 10}7  {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2}  .776286{col 26}{space 2} .1029808{col 37}{space 1}    7.54{col 46}{space 3}0.000{col 54}{space 4} .5744474{col 67}{space 3} .9781246
{txt}{space 10}8  {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2} 1.092611{col 26}{space 2} .0767247{col 37}{space 1}   14.24{col 46}{space 3}0.000{col 54}{space 4} .9422335{col 67}{space 3} 1.242989
{txt}{space 10}9  {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2} .7601944{col 26}{space 2} .1219073{col 37}{space 1}    6.24{col 46}{space 3}0.000{col 54}{space 4} .5212605{col 67}{space 3} .9991282
{txt}{space 9}10  {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2} 1.544232{col 26}{space 2} .1366271{col 37}{space 1}   11.30{col 46}{space 3}0.000{col 54}{space 4} 1.276447{col 67}{space 3} 1.812016
{txt}{hline 13}{c BT}{hline 11}{hline 11}{hline 9}{hline 8}{hline 13}{hline 12}
{res}{txt}
{com}. #delimit ;
{txt}delimiter now ;
{com}. marginsplot, xtitle("Political Terror Scale (PTS)") 
> title("") recast(line)  
> ytitle("Predicted number of restrictions") 
> legend(label(3 "ICCPR not ratified") label(4 "ICCPR ratified")) legend(order(3 4))
> scheme(p2bar) graphregion(fcolor(white) lstyle(none)) 
> plotopts(lwidth(medthick) lcolor(gs0)) 
> recastci(rline) ciopts(lpattern(dash) lwidth(medthick) lcolor(gs0)) ;

{text}{p 2 6 2}Variables that uniquely identify margins: pts_stateDep ICCPR_ratif{p_end}
(note: scheme p2bar not found, using s2color)
{res}{txt}
{com}. gr_edit plotregion1.plot1.style.editstyle area(linestyle(color(gs10))) editcopy ;
{res}{txt}
{com}. gr_edit plotregion1.plot3.style.editstyle line(color(gs10)) editcopy ;
{res}{txt}
{com}. graph export ".\Figures\Figure4.png", replace ;
{txt}(file .\Figures\Figure4.png written in PNG format)

{com}. #delimit cr
{txt}delimiter now cr
{com}. 
. 
. 
. ** Model 2A: ICCPR + Fariss
. xtgee restrictionCount2 c.farissHumanRightsScores##i.ICCPR_ratif if YEAR>=1994, iterate(1000) tol(0.01) force corr(ar 1) family(nbinom) link (nbinom) 
{txt}note:  some groups have fewer than 2 observations
       not possible to estimate correlations for those groups
       2 groups omitted from estimation


Iteration 1: tolerance = {res}.13989589
{txt}Iteration 2: tolerance = {res}.01143321
{txt}Iteration 3: tolerance = {res}.00676948

{txt}GEE population-averaged model                   Number of obs     = {res}     3,146
{txt}Group and time vars:          {res}cowcode YEAR      {txt}Number of groups  = {res}       173
{txt}Link:                    {res}negative binomial      {txt}Obs per group:
Family:             {res}negative binomial(k=1)                    {txt}min = {res}         3
{txt}Correlation:                         {res}AR(1)                    {txt}avg = {res}      18.2
                                                              {txt}max = {res}        20
                                                {txt}Wald chi2({res}3{txt})      =  {res}   411.20
{txt}Scale parameter:                 {res}        1      {txt}Prob > chi2       =     {res}0.0000

{txt}{hline 38}{c TT}{hline 11}{hline 11}{hline 9}{hline 8}{hline 13}{hline 12}
{col 1}                    restrictionCount2{col 39}{c |}      Coef.{col 51}   Std. Err.{col 63}      z{col 71}   P>|z|{col 79}     [95% Con{col 92}f. Interval]
{hline 38}{c +}{hline 11}{hline 11}{hline 9}{hline 8}{hline 13}{hline 12}
{space 14}farissHumanRightsScores {c |}{col 39}{res}{space 2}  .239477{col 51}{space 2} .0406863{col 62}{space 1}    5.89{col 71}{space 3}0.000{col 79}{space 4} .1597334{col 92}{space 3} .3192206
{txt}{space 37} {c |}
{space 26}ICCPR_ratif {c |}
{space 22}ICCPR ratified  {c |}{col 39}{res}{space 2}-.0369514{col 51}{space 2} .0572338{col 62}{space 1}   -0.65{col 71}{space 3}0.519{col 79}{space 4}-.1491276{col 92}{space 3} .0752248
{txt}{space 37} {c |}
ICCPR_ratif#c.farissHumanRightsScores {c |}
{space 22}ICCPR ratified  {c |}{col 39}{res}{space 2} .0340329{col 51}{space 2} .0409933{col 62}{space 1}    0.83{col 71}{space 3}0.406{col 79}{space 4}-.0463125{col 92}{space 3} .1143782
{txt}{space 37} {c |}
{space 32}_cons {c |}{col 39}{res}{space 2}-.6567245{col 51}{space 2} .0579267{col 62}{space 1}  -11.34{col 71}{space 3}0.000{col 79}{space 4}-.7702588{col 92}{space 3}-.5431903
{txt}{hline 38}{c BT}{hline 11}{hline 11}{hline 9}{hline 8}{hline 13}{hline 12}

{com}. outreg2 using ".\Tables\Table1.doc", append ctitle(Model 2A) label dec(3) symbol(**,*,+) addstat(Deviance, `e(deviance)')
{txt}{stata `"shellout using `".\Tables\Table1.doc"'"':.\Tables\Table1.doc}
{browse `"C:\Users\smidt\Dropbox\PC\Documents\PaperProjects\Paper-Cracking Down on HR defenders\Analysis\Code\Replication"' :dir}{com} : {txt}{stata `"seeout using ".\Tables\Table1.txt", label"':seeout}

{com}. 
. ** Model 2B: ICCPR + Fariss
. xtgee restrictionCount2 c.farissHumanRightsScores##i.ICCPR_ratif protest_ClarkRegan_logLag1 exconst youthBulgeln v2x_juconln conflictYear gdpPerCapita_z population_z if YEAR>=1994, iterate(1000) tol(0.01) force corr(ar 1) family(nbinom) link (nbinom) 
{txt}note:  some groups have fewer than 2 observations
       not possible to estimate correlations for those groups
       3 groups omitted from estimation


Iteration 1: tolerance = {res}.0430184
{txt}Iteration 2: tolerance = {res}.04719423
{txt}Iteration 3: tolerance = {res}.00847984

{txt}GEE population-averaged model                   Number of obs     = {res}     2,593
{txt}Group and time vars:          {res}cowcode YEAR      {txt}Number of groups  = {res}       146
{txt}Link:                    {res}negative binomial      {txt}Obs per group:
Family:             {res}negative binomial(k=1)                    {txt}min = {res}         2
{txt}Correlation:                         {res}AR(1)                    {txt}avg = {res}      17.8
                                                              {txt}max = {res}        19
                                                {txt}Wald chi2({res}10{txt})     =  {res}   252.53
{txt}Scale parameter:                 {res}        1      {txt}Prob > chi2       =     {res}0.0000

{txt}{hline 38}{c TT}{hline 11}{hline 11}{hline 9}{hline 8}{hline 13}{hline 12}
{col 1}                    restrictionCount2{col 39}{c |}      Coef.{col 51}   Std. Err.{col 63}      z{col 71}   P>|z|{col 79}     [95% Con{col 92}f. Interval]
{hline 38}{c +}{hline 11}{hline 11}{hline 9}{hline 8}{hline 13}{hline 12}
{space 14}farissHumanRightsScores {c |}{col 39}{res}{space 2} .0373186{col 51}{space 2} .0580885{col 62}{space 1}    0.64{col 71}{space 3}0.521{col 79}{space 4}-.0765327{col 92}{space 3}   .15117
{txt}{space 37} {c |}
{space 26}ICCPR_ratif {c |}
{space 22}ICCPR ratified  {c |}{col 39}{res}{space 2}-.0577124{col 51}{space 2} .0640082{col 62}{space 1}   -0.90{col 71}{space 3}0.367{col 79}{space 4}-.1831661{col 92}{space 3} .0677412
{txt}{space 37} {c |}
ICCPR_ratif#c.farissHumanRightsScores {c |}
{space 22}ICCPR ratified  {c |}{col 39}{res}{space 2} .1435716{col 51}{space 2} .0575397{col 62}{space 1}    2.50{col 71}{space 3}0.013{col 79}{space 4}  .030796{col 92}{space 3} .2563473
{txt}{space 37} {c |}
{space 11}protest_ClarkRegan_logLag1 {c |}{col 39}{res}{space 2} .0122755{col 51}{space 2}  .009236{col 62}{space 1}    1.33{col 71}{space 3}0.184{col 79}{space 4}-.0058267{col 92}{space 3} .0303778
{txt}{space 30}exconst {c |}{col 39}{res}{space 2}-.0185792{col 51}{space 2} .0105998{col 62}{space 1}   -1.75{col 71}{space 3}0.080{col 79}{space 4}-.0393543{col 92}{space 3}  .002196
{txt}{space 25}youthBulgeln {c |}{col 39}{res}{space 2} .5878254{col 51}{space 2} .2023524{col 62}{space 1}    2.90{col 71}{space 3}0.004{col 79}{space 4} .1912221{col 92}{space 3} .9844288
{txt}{space 26}v2x_juconln {c |}{col 39}{res}{space 2}-.1152223{col 51}{space 2} .0156317{col 62}{space 1}   -7.37{col 71}{space 3}0.000{col 79}{space 4}-.1458599{col 92}{space 3}-.0845848
{txt}{space 25}conflictYear {c |}{col 39}{res}{space 2}-.0060284{col 51}{space 2} .0230875{col 62}{space 1}   -0.26{col 71}{space 3}0.794{col 79}{space 4}-.0512791{col 92}{space 3} .0392222
{txt}{space 23}gdpPerCapita_z {c |}{col 39}{res}{space 2} .0743103{col 51}{space 2}  .035317{col 62}{space 1}    2.10{col 71}{space 3}0.035{col 79}{space 4} .0050903{col 92}{space 3} .1435304
{txt}{space 25}population_z {c |}{col 39}{res}{space 2} .0434342{col 51}{space 2} .0103461{col 62}{space 1}    4.20{col 71}{space 3}0.000{col 79}{space 4} .0231563{col 92}{space 3} .0637121
{txt}{space 32}_cons {c |}{col 39}{res}{space 2}-2.385667{col 51}{space 2} .5996393{col 62}{space 1}   -3.98{col 71}{space 3}0.000{col 79}{space 4}-3.560938{col 92}{space 3}-1.210395
{txt}{hline 38}{c BT}{hline 11}{hline 11}{hline 9}{hline 8}{hline 13}{hline 12}

{com}. outreg2 using ".\Tables\Table1.doc", append ctitle(Model 2B) label dec(3) symbol(**,*,+) addstat(Deviance, `e(deviance)')
{txt}{stata `"shellout using `".\Tables\Table1.doc"'"':.\Tables\Table1.doc}
{browse `"C:\Users\smidt\Dropbox\PC\Documents\PaperProjects\Paper-Cracking Down on HR defenders\Analysis\Code\Replication"' :dir}{com} : {txt}{stata `"seeout using ".\Tables\Table1.txt", label"':seeout}

{com}. 
. 
. ** Delete the "comment out" to compare with marginal effects when using Fariss' data
. /* Figure
> capture drop low 
> capture drop high 
> capture drop x 
> capture drop est
> margins, dydx(farissHumanRightsScores) at(ICCPR_ratif =(0) ) atmeans
> matrix table = r(table)
> gen low = table[1,1] - 1.96*table[2,1] in 1
> gen high = table[1,1] + 1.96*table[2,1] in 1
> gen est = table[1,1] in 1
> margins, dydx(farissHumanRightsScores) at(ICCPR_ratif =(1) ) atmeans
> matrix table = r(table)
> matrix list table
> replace low = table[1,1] - 1.96*table[2,1] in 2
> replace high = table[1,1] + 1.96*table[2,1] in 2
> replace est = table[1,1] in 2
> gen x = 1 in 1
> replace x = 2 in 2
> #delimit ;
> twoway scatter est x, xsca(r(0.5 2.5))  xlabel(1 "ICCPR not ratified" 2 "ICCPR ratified") xtitle("") yline(0) mcolor(eltblue) msize(medlarge) ||
> rcap low high x,  lcolor(eltblue) lwidth(medthick) ytitle("Predicted effect of latent abuses on restrictions") ||
> scatter est x in 2, mcolor(gs0) msize(medlarge) ||
> rcap low high x in 2, lcolor(gs0)  lwidth(medthick)
> scheme(p2bar) graphregion(fcolor(white) lstyle(none)) legend(off) ;
> graph export ".\Figures\Effect_ICCPR_Fariss1.png", replace ;
> #delimit cr
> 
> * Figure
> capture drop low 
> capture drop high 
> capture drop x 
> capture drop est
> margins, dydx(ICCPR_ratif) at(farissHumanRightsScores=-2 ) atmeans
> matrix table = r(table)
> gen low = table[1,2] - 1.96*table[2,2] in 1
> gen high = table[1,2] + 1.96*table[2,2] in 1
> gen est = table[1,2] in 1
> margins, dydx(ICCPR_ratif) at(farissHumanRightsScores=2 ) atmeans
> matrix table = r(table)
> replace low = table[1,2] - 1.96*table[2,2] in 2
> replace high = table[1,2] + 1.96*table[2,2] in 2
> replace est = table[1,2] in 2
> gen x = 1 in 1
> replace x = 2 in 2
> #delimit ;
> twoway scatter est x, xsca(r(0.5 2.5))  xlabel(1 "PTS low" 2 "PTS high") xtitle("") yline(0) mcolor(eltblue) msize(medlarge) ||
> rcap low high x,  lcolor(eltblue) lwidth(medthick) ytitle("Predicted effect of latent abuses on restrictions") ||
> scatter est x in 2, mcolor(gs0) msize(medlarge) ||
> rcap low high x in 2, lcolor(gs0)  lwidth(medthick)
> scheme(p2bar) graphregion(fcolor(white) lstyle(none)) legend(off) ;
> graph export ".\Figures\Effect_ICCPR_Fariss2.png", replace ;
> #delimit cr
> 
> 
> margins, predict(mu)  at(farissHumanRightsScores = (-4(1)2.5) ICCPR_ratif =(0 1) ) atmeans
> #delimit ;
> marginsplot, xtitle("Fariss latent human rights scores") 
> title("") ytitle("Predicted number of restrictions") 
> legend(label(1 "ICCPR not ratified") label(2 "ICCPR ratified")) legend(order(1 2)) 
> scheme(p2bar) graphregion(fcolor(white) lstyle(none)) 
> recast(line) plotopts(lwidth(medthick) lcolor(gs2)) 
> recastci(rline) ciopts(lpattern(dash) lwidth(medthick) lcolor(gs2)) ;
> gr_edit plotregion1.plot1.style.editstyle area(linestyle(color(eltblue))) editcopy ;
> gr_edit plotregion1.plot3.style.editstyle line(color(eltblue)) editcopy ;
> graph export ".\Figures\Predictions_ICCPR_Fariss.png", replace ;
> #delimit cr
> */
. 
. 
. 
. 
. ** Model 3A: CAT + PTS
. set seed 1234
{txt}
{com}. 
. xtnbreg restrictionCount2 c.pts_stateDep##i.CAT_ratif if YEAR>1994, corr(ar 1) pa

{txt}note:  observations not equally spaced
       modal spacing is delta YEAR = 1 year
       19 groups omitted from estimation
note:  some groups have fewer than 2 observations
       not possible to estimate correlations for those groups
       2 groups omitted from estimation


Iteration 1: tolerance = {res}.40996059
{txt}Iteration 2: tolerance = {res}.28364739
{txt}Iteration 3: tolerance = {res}.06386342
{txt}Iteration 4: tolerance = {res}.00318658
{txt}Iteration 5: tolerance = {res}.00054094
{txt}Iteration 6: tolerance = {res}.00010272
{txt}Iteration 7: tolerance = {res}.00002314
{txt}Iteration 8: tolerance = {res}4.222e-06
{txt}Iteration 9: tolerance = {res}9.550e-07

{txt}GEE population-averaged model                   Number of obs     = {res}     2,872
{txt}Group and time vars:          {res}cowcode YEAR      {txt}Number of groups  = {res}       150
{txt}Link:                                  {res}log      {txt}Obs per group:
Family:             {res}negative binomial(k=1)                    {txt}min = {res}         2
{txt}Correlation:                         {res}AR(1)                    {txt}avg = {res}      19.1
                                                              {txt}max = {res}        20
                                                {txt}Wald chi2({res}3{txt})      =  {res}    33.31
{txt}Scale parameter:                 {res}        1      {txt}Prob > chi2       =     {res}0.0000

{txt}{hline 25}{c TT}{hline 11}{hline 11}{hline 9}{hline 8}{hline 13}{hline 12}
{col 1}       restrictionCount2{col 26}{c |}      Coef.{col 38}   Std. Err.{col 50}      z{col 58}   P>|z|{col 66}     [95% Con{col 79}f. Interval]
{hline 25}{c +}{hline 11}{hline 11}{hline 9}{hline 8}{hline 13}{hline 12}
{space 12}pts_stateDep {c |}{col 26}{res}{space 2} .0730062{col 38}{space 2} .0452579{col 49}{space 1}    1.61{col 58}{space 3}0.107{col 66}{space 4}-.0156976{col 79}{space 3}   .16171
{txt}{space 24} {c |}
{space 15}CAT_ratif {c |}
{space 17}member  {c |}{col 26}{res}{space 2}-.1559448{col 38}{space 2} .1699562{col 49}{space 1}   -0.92{col 58}{space 3}0.359{col 66}{space 4}-.4890527{col 79}{space 3} .1771632
{txt}{space 24} {c |}
CAT_ratif#c.pts_stateDep {c |}
{space 17}member  {c |}{col 26}{res}{space 2} .0807273{col 38}{space 2} .0511141{col 49}{space 1}    1.58{col 58}{space 3}0.114{col 66}{space 4}-.0194546{col 79}{space 3} .1809091
{txt}{space 24} {c |}
{space 19}_cons {c |}{col 26}{res}{space 2} -.147907{col 38}{space 2} .1633401{col 49}{space 1}   -0.91{col 58}{space 3}0.365{col 66}{space 4}-.4680478{col 79}{space 3} .1722338
{txt}{hline 25}{c BT}{hline 11}{hline 11}{hline 9}{hline 8}{hline 13}{hline 12}

{com}. outreg2 using ".\Tables\Table2.doc", replace ctitle(Model 3A) label dec(3) symbol(**,*,+) addstat(Deviance, `e(deviance)')
{txt}{stata `"shellout using `".\Tables\Table2.doc"'"':.\Tables\Table2.doc}
{browse `"C:\Users\smidt\Dropbox\PC\Documents\PaperProjects\Paper-Cracking Down on HR defenders\Analysis\Code\Replication"' :dir}{com} : {txt}{stata `"seeout using ".\Tables\Table2.txt", label"':seeout}

{com}. 
. ** Model 3B: CAT + PTS
. xtgee restrictionCount2 c.pts_stateDep##i.CAT_ratif protest_ClarkRegan_logLag1 exconst youthBulgeln v2x_juconln conflictYear gdpPerCapita_z population_z if YEAR>=1994, corr(ar 1) family(nbinom) link(nbinom) force tol(0.01)
{txt}note:  some groups have fewer than 2 observations
       not possible to estimate correlations for those groups
       2 groups omitted from estimation


Iteration 1: tolerance = {res}.18878355
{txt}Iteration 2: tolerance = {res}.14189788
{txt}Iteration 3: tolerance = {res}.79827673
{txt}Iteration 4: tolerance = {res}.5413083
{txt}Iteration 5: tolerance = {res}.30526354
{txt}Iteration 6: tolerance = {res}.01628641
{txt}Iteration 7: tolerance = {res}.02233887
{txt}Iteration 8: tolerance = {res}.01008411
{txt}Iteration 9: tolerance = {res}.0105097
{txt}Iteration 10: tolerance = {res}.00463977

{txt}GEE population-averaged model                   Number of obs     = {res}     2,730
{txt}Group and time vars:          {res}cowcode YEAR      {txt}Number of groups  = {res}       147
{txt}Link:                    {res}negative binomial      {txt}Obs per group:
Family:             {res}negative binomial(k=1)                    {txt}min = {res}         2
{txt}Correlation:                         {res}AR(1)                    {txt}avg = {res}      18.6
                                                              {txt}max = {res}        20
                                                {txt}Wald chi2({res}10{txt})     =  {res}   518.50
{txt}Scale parameter:                 {res}        1      {txt}Prob > chi2       =     {res}0.0000

{txt}{hline 27}{c TT}{hline 11}{hline 11}{hline 9}{hline 8}{hline 13}{hline 12}
{col 1}         restrictionCount2{col 28}{c |}      Coef.{col 40}   Std. Err.{col 52}      z{col 60}   P>|z|{col 68}     [95% Con{col 81}f. Interval]
{hline 27}{c +}{hline 11}{hline 11}{hline 9}{hline 8}{hline 13}{hline 12}
{space 14}pts_stateDep {c |}{col 28}{res}{space 2}-.0074374{col 40}{space 2} .0245135{col 51}{space 1}   -0.30{col 60}{space 3}0.762{col 68}{space 4} -.055483{col 81}{space 3} .0406082
{txt}{space 26} {c |}
{space 17}CAT_ratif {c |}
{space 19}member  {c |}{col 28}{res}{space 2}-.6107922{col 40}{space 2} .1020159{col 51}{space 1}   -5.99{col 60}{space 3}0.000{col 68}{space 4}-.8107397{col 81}{space 3}-.4108446
{txt}{space 26} {c |}
{space 2}CAT_ratif#c.pts_stateDep {c |}
{space 19}member  {c |}{col 28}{res}{space 2} .2082064{col 40}{space 2}  .026842{col 51}{space 1}    7.76{col 60}{space 3}0.000{col 68}{space 4} .1555971{col 81}{space 3} .2608157
{txt}{space 26} {c |}
protest_ClarkRegan_logLag1 {c |}{col 28}{res}{space 2} .0525348{col 40}{space 2} .0077788{col 51}{space 1}    6.75{col 60}{space 3}0.000{col 68}{space 4} .0372887{col 81}{space 3} .0677809
{txt}{space 19}exconst {c |}{col 28}{res}{space 2}-.0594583{col 40}{space 2} .0090362{col 51}{space 1}   -6.58{col 60}{space 3}0.000{col 68}{space 4} -.077169{col 81}{space 3}-.0417476
{txt}{space 14}youthBulgeln {c |}{col 28}{res}{space 2} .1161604{col 40}{space 2} .0766595{col 51}{space 1}    1.52{col 60}{space 3}0.130{col 68}{space 4}-.0340894{col 81}{space 3} .2664103
{txt}{space 15}v2x_juconln {c |}{col 28}{res}{space 2}-.1497852{col 40}{space 2} .0089551{col 51}{space 1}  -16.73{col 60}{space 3}0.000{col 68}{space 4}-.1673368{col 81}{space 3}-.1322336
{txt}{space 14}conflictYear {c |}{col 28}{res}{space 2} .0116786{col 40}{space 2} .0131413{col 51}{space 1}    0.89{col 60}{space 3}0.374{col 68}{space 4}-.0140778{col 81}{space 3}  .037435
{txt}{space 12}gdpPerCapita_z {c |}{col 28}{res}{space 2}  .023104{col 40}{space 2} .0116629{col 51}{space 1}    1.98{col 60}{space 3}0.048{col 68}{space 4} .0002451{col 81}{space 3} .0459629
{txt}{space 14}population_z {c |}{col 28}{res}{space 2} .0699199{col 40}{space 2} .0035845{col 51}{space 1}   19.51{col 60}{space 3}0.000{col 68}{space 4} .0628944{col 81}{space 3} .0769455
{txt}{space 21}_cons {c |}{col 28}{res}{space 2}-1.014914{col 40}{space 2} .2738756{col 51}{space 1}   -3.71{col 60}{space 3}0.000{col 68}{space 4}  -1.5517{col 81}{space 3}-.4781273
{txt}{hline 27}{c BT}{hline 11}{hline 11}{hline 9}{hline 8}{hline 13}{hline 12}

{com}. outreg2 using ".\Tables\Table2.doc", append ctitle(Model 3B) label dec(3) symbol(**,*,+) addstat(Deviance, `e(deviance)')
{txt}{stata `"shellout using `".\Tables\Table2.doc"'"':.\Tables\Table2.doc}
{browse `"C:\Users\smidt\Dropbox\PC\Documents\PaperProjects\Paper-Cracking Down on HR defenders\Analysis\Code\Replication"' :dir}{com} : {txt}{stata `"seeout using ".\Tables\Table2.txt", label"':seeout}

{com}. 
. * Figure 8
. capture drop low 
{txt}
{com}. capture drop high 
{txt}
{com}. capture drop x 
{txt}
{com}. capture drop est
{txt}
{com}. margins, dydx(pts_stateDep) at(CAT_ratif =(0) ) atmeans
{res}
{txt}Conditional marginal effects{col 49}Number of obs{col 67}= {res}     2,730
{txt}Model VCE{col 14}: {res}Conventional

{txt}{p2colset 1 14 16 2}{...}
{p2col:Expression}:{space 1}{res:Negative binomial prediction, predict()}{p_end}
{p2colreset}{...}
{txt}{p2colset 1 14 16 2}{...}
{p2col:dy/dx w.r.t.}:{space 1}{res:pts_stateDep}{p_end}
{p2colreset}{...}
{txt}{p2colset 1 14 16 2}{...}
{p2col:at}:{space 1}{res:{txt:pts_stateDep}{space 4}{txt:=} {space 3}2.572161 {txt:(mean)}}{p_end}
{p2colreset}{...}
{txt}{p2colset 1 14 16 2}{...}
{p2col: }{space 2}{res:{txt:CAT_ratif}{space 7}{txt:=} {space 10}0}{p_end}
{p2colreset}{...}
{txt}{p2colset 1 14 16 2}{...}
{p2col: }{space 2}{res:{txt:protest_Cl~1}{space 4}{txt:=} {space 3}.9611858 {txt:(mean)}}{p_end}
{p2colreset}{...}
{txt}{p2colset 1 14 16 2}{...}
{p2col: }{space 2}{res:{txt:exconst}{space 9}{txt:=} {space 3}4.940659 {txt:(mean)}}{p_end}
{p2colreset}{...}
{txt}{p2colset 1 14 16 2}{...}
{p2col: }{space 2}{res:{txt:youthBulgeln}{space 4}{txt:=} {space 3}2.888049 {txt:(mean)}}{p_end}
{p2colreset}{...}
{txt}{p2colset 1 14 16 2}{...}
{p2col: }{space 2}{res:{txt:v2x_juconln}{space 5}{txt:=} {space 2}-.7291509 {txt:(mean)}}{p_end}
{p2colreset}{...}
{txt}{p2colset 1 14 16 2}{...}
{p2col: }{space 2}{res:{txt:conflictYear}{space 4}{txt:=} {space 3}.1611722 {txt:(mean)}}{p_end}
{p2colreset}{...}
{txt}{p2colset 1 14 16 2}{...}
{p2col: }{space 2}{res:{txt:gdpPerCapi~z}{space 4}{txt:=} {space 2}-.0923083 {txt:(mean)}}{p_end}
{p2colreset}{...}
{txt}{p2colset 1 14 16 2}{...}
{p2col: }{space 2}{res:{txt:population_z}{space 4}{txt:=} {space 2}-.0075523 {txt:(mean)}}{p_end}
{p2colreset}{...}

{res}{txt}{hline 13}{c TT}{hline 11}{hline 11}{hline 9}{hline 8}{hline 13}{hline 12}
{col 14}{c |}{col 26} Delta-method
{col 14}{c |}      dy/dx{col 26}   Std. Err.{col 38}      z{col 46}   P>|z|{col 54}     [95% Con{col 67}f. Interval]
{hline 13}{c +}{hline 11}{hline 11}{hline 9}{hline 8}{hline 13}{hline 12}
pts_stateDep {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2}-.0101094{col 26}{space 2} .0337498{col 37}{space 1}   -0.30{col 46}{space 3}0.765{col 54}{space 4}-.0762577{col 67}{space 3}  .056039
{txt}{hline 13}{c BT}{hline 11}{hline 11}{hline 9}{hline 8}{hline 13}{hline 12}
{res}{txt}
{com}. matrix table = r(table)
{txt}
{com}. gen low = table[1,1] - 1.96*table[2,1] in 1
{txt}(3,612 missing values generated)

{com}. gen high = table[1,1] + 1.96*table[2,1] in 1
{txt}(3,612 missing values generated)

{com}. gen est = table[1,1] in 1
{txt}(3,612 missing values generated)

{com}. margins, dydx(pts_stateDep) at(CAT_ratif =(1) ) atmeans
{res}
{txt}Conditional marginal effects{col 49}Number of obs{col 67}= {res}     2,730
{txt}Model VCE{col 14}: {res}Conventional

{txt}{p2colset 1 14 16 2}{...}
{p2col:Expression}:{space 1}{res:Negative binomial prediction, predict()}{p_end}
{p2colreset}{...}
{txt}{p2colset 1 14 16 2}{...}
{p2col:dy/dx w.r.t.}:{space 1}{res:pts_stateDep}{p_end}
{p2colreset}{...}
{txt}{p2colset 1 14 16 2}{...}
{p2col:at}:{space 1}{res:{txt:pts_stateDep}{space 4}{txt:=} {space 3}2.572161 {txt:(mean)}}{p_end}
{p2colreset}{...}
{txt}{p2colset 1 14 16 2}{...}
{p2col: }{space 2}{res:{txt:CAT_ratif}{space 7}{txt:=} {space 10}1}{p_end}
{p2colreset}{...}
{txt}{p2colset 1 14 16 2}{...}
{p2col: }{space 2}{res:{txt:protest_Cl~1}{space 4}{txt:=} {space 3}.9611858 {txt:(mean)}}{p_end}
{p2colreset}{...}
{txt}{p2colset 1 14 16 2}{...}
{p2col: }{space 2}{res:{txt:exconst}{space 9}{txt:=} {space 3}4.940659 {txt:(mean)}}{p_end}
{p2colreset}{...}
{txt}{p2colset 1 14 16 2}{...}
{p2col: }{space 2}{res:{txt:youthBulgeln}{space 4}{txt:=} {space 3}2.888049 {txt:(mean)}}{p_end}
{p2colreset}{...}
{txt}{p2colset 1 14 16 2}{...}
{p2col: }{space 2}{res:{txt:v2x_juconln}{space 5}{txt:=} {space 2}-.7291509 {txt:(mean)}}{p_end}
{p2colreset}{...}
{txt}{p2colset 1 14 16 2}{...}
{p2col: }{space 2}{res:{txt:conflictYear}{space 4}{txt:=} {space 3}.1611722 {txt:(mean)}}{p_end}
{p2colreset}{...}
{txt}{p2colset 1 14 16 2}{...}
{p2col: }{space 2}{res:{txt:gdpPerCapi~z}{space 4}{txt:=} {space 2}-.0923083 {txt:(mean)}}{p_end}
{p2colreset}{...}
{txt}{p2colset 1 14 16 2}{...}
{p2col: }{space 2}{res:{txt:population_z}{space 4}{txt:=} {space 2}-.0075523 {txt:(mean)}}{p_end}
{p2colreset}{...}

{res}{txt}{hline 13}{c TT}{hline 11}{hline 11}{hline 9}{hline 8}{hline 13}{hline 12}
{col 14}{c |}{col 26} Delta-method
{col 14}{c |}      dy/dx{col 26}   Std. Err.{col 38}      z{col 46}   P>|z|{col 54}     [95% Con{col 67}f. Interval]
{hline 13}{c +}{hline 11}{hline 11}{hline 9}{hline 8}{hline 13}{hline 12}
pts_stateDep {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2} .2271051{col 26}{space 2} .0156191{col 37}{space 1}   14.54{col 46}{space 3}0.000{col 54}{space 4} .1964923{col 67}{space 3}  .257718
{txt}{hline 13}{c BT}{hline 11}{hline 11}{hline 9}{hline 8}{hline 13}{hline 12}
{res}{txt}
{com}. matrix table = r(table)
{txt}
{com}. replace low = table[1,1] - 1.96*table[2,1] in 2
{txt}(1 real change made)

{com}. replace high = table[1,1] + 1.96*table[2,1] in 2
{txt}(1 real change made)

{com}. replace est = table[1,1] in 2
{txt}(1 real change made)

{com}. gen x = 1 in 1
{txt}(3,612 missing values generated)

{com}. replace x = 2 in 2
{txt}(1 real change made)

{com}. #delimit ;
{txt}delimiter now ;
{com}. twoway scatter est x, xsca(r(0.5 2.5))  xlabel(1 "CAT not ratified" 2 "CAT ratified") xtitle("") yline(0) mcolor(gs10) msize(medlarge) ||
> rcap low high x,  lcolor(gs10) lwidth(medthick) ytitle("Predicted effect of PTS on restrictions") ||
> scatter est x in 2, mcolor(gs0) msize(medlarge) ||
> rcap low high x in 2, lcolor(gs0)  lwidth(medthick)
> scheme(p2bar) graphregion(fcolor(white) lstyle(none)) legend(off) ;
{txt}(note: scheme p2bar not found, using s2color)
{res}{txt}
{com}. graph export ".\Figures\Figure8.png", replace ;
{txt}(file .\Figures\Figure8.png written in PNG format)

{com}. #delimit cr
{txt}delimiter now cr
{com}. 
. 
. * Figure 9
. capture drop low 
{txt}
{com}. capture drop high 
{txt}
{com}. capture drop x 
{txt}
{com}. capture drop est
{txt}
{com}. margins, dydx(CAT_ratif) at(pts_stateDep =(1) ) atmeans
{res}
{txt}Conditional marginal effects{col 49}Number of obs{col 67}= {res}     2,730
{txt}Model VCE{col 14}: {res}Conventional

{txt}{p2colset 1 14 16 2}{...}
{p2col:Expression}:{space 1}{res:Negative binomial prediction, predict()}{p_end}
{p2colreset}{...}
{txt}{p2colset 1 14 16 2}{...}
{p2col:dy/dx w.r.t.}:{space 1}{res:1.CAT_ratif}{p_end}
{p2colreset}{...}
{txt}{p2colset 1 14 16 2}{...}
{p2col:at}:{space 1}{res:{txt:pts_stateDep}{space 4}{txt:=} {space 10}1}{p_end}
{p2colreset}{...}
{txt}{p2colset 1 14 16 2}{...}
{p2col: }{space 2}{res:{txt:0.CAT_ratif}{space 5}{txt:=} {space 3}.2062271 {txt:(mean)}}{p_end}
{p2colreset}{...}
{txt}{p2colset 1 14 16 2}{...}
{p2col: }{space 2}{res:{txt:1.CAT_ratif}{space 5}{txt:=} {space 3}.7937729 {txt:(mean)}}{p_end}
{p2colreset}{...}
{txt}{p2colset 1 14 16 2}{...}
{p2col: }{space 2}{res:{txt:protest_Cl~1}{space 4}{txt:=} {space 3}.9611858 {txt:(mean)}}{p_end}
{p2colreset}{...}
{txt}{p2colset 1 14 16 2}{...}
{p2col: }{space 2}{res:{txt:exconst}{space 9}{txt:=} {space 3}4.940659 {txt:(mean)}}{p_end}
{p2colreset}{...}
{txt}{p2colset 1 14 16 2}{...}
{p2col: }{space 2}{res:{txt:youthBulgeln}{space 4}{txt:=} {space 3}2.888049 {txt:(mean)}}{p_end}
{p2colreset}{...}
{txt}{p2colset 1 14 16 2}{...}
{p2col: }{space 2}{res:{txt:v2x_juconln}{space 5}{txt:=} {space 2}-.7291509 {txt:(mean)}}{p_end}
{p2colreset}{...}
{txt}{p2colset 1 14 16 2}{...}
{p2col: }{space 2}{res:{txt:conflictYear}{space 4}{txt:=} {space 3}.1611722 {txt:(mean)}}{p_end}
{p2colreset}{...}
{txt}{p2colset 1 14 16 2}{...}
{p2col: }{space 2}{res:{txt:gdpPerCapi~z}{space 4}{txt:=} {space 2}-.0923083 {txt:(mean)}}{p_end}
{p2colreset}{...}
{txt}{p2colset 1 14 16 2}{...}
{p2col: }{space 2}{res:{txt:population_z}{space 4}{txt:=} {space 2}-.0075523 {txt:(mean)}}{p_end}
{p2colreset}{...}

{res}{txt}{hline 13}{c TT}{hline 11}{hline 11}{hline 9}{hline 8}{hline 13}{hline 12}
{col 14}{c |}{col 26} Delta-method
{col 14}{c |}      dy/dx{col 26}   Std. Err.{col 38}      z{col 46}   P>|z|{col 54}     [95% Con{col 67}f. Interval]
{hline 13}{c +}{hline 11}{hline 11}{hline 9}{hline 8}{hline 13}{hline 12}
{space 3}CAT_ratif {c |}
{space 5}member  {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2}-.3683371{col 26}{space 2} .0975598{col 37}{space 1}   -3.78{col 46}{space 3}0.000{col 54}{space 4}-.5595507{col 67}{space 3}-.1771234
{txt}{hline 13}{c BT}{hline 11}{hline 11}{hline 9}{hline 8}{hline 13}{hline 12}
{p 0 6 0 78}Note: dy/dx for factor levels is the discrete change from the base level.{txt}{p_end}
{res}{txt}
{com}. matrix table = r(table)
{txt}
{com}. gen low = table[1,2] - 1.96*table[2,2] in 1
{txt}(3,612 missing values generated)

{com}. gen high = table[1,2] + 1.96*table[2,2] in 1
{txt}(3,612 missing values generated)

{com}. gen est = table[1,2] in 1
{txt}(3,612 missing values generated)

{com}. margins, dydx(CAT_ratif) at(pts_stateDep =(5) ) atmeans
{res}
{txt}Conditional marginal effects{col 49}Number of obs{col 67}= {res}     2,730
{txt}Model VCE{col 14}: {res}Conventional

{txt}{p2colset 1 14 16 2}{...}
{p2col:Expression}:{space 1}{res:Negative binomial prediction, predict()}{p_end}
{p2colreset}{...}
{txt}{p2colset 1 14 16 2}{...}
{p2col:dy/dx w.r.t.}:{space 1}{res:1.CAT_ratif}{p_end}
{p2colreset}{...}
{txt}{p2colset 1 14 16 2}{...}
{p2col:at}:{space 1}{res:{txt:pts_stateDep}{space 4}{txt:=} {space 10}5}{p_end}
{p2colreset}{...}
{txt}{p2colset 1 14 16 2}{...}
{p2col: }{space 2}{res:{txt:0.CAT_ratif}{space 5}{txt:=} {space 3}.2062271 {txt:(mean)}}{p_end}
{p2colreset}{...}
{txt}{p2colset 1 14 16 2}{...}
{p2col: }{space 2}{res:{txt:1.CAT_ratif}{space 5}{txt:=} {space 3}.7937729 {txt:(mean)}}{p_end}
{p2colreset}{...}
{txt}{p2colset 1 14 16 2}{...}
{p2col: }{space 2}{res:{txt:protest_Cl~1}{space 4}{txt:=} {space 3}.9611858 {txt:(mean)}}{p_end}
{p2colreset}{...}
{txt}{p2colset 1 14 16 2}{...}
{p2col: }{space 2}{res:{txt:exconst}{space 9}{txt:=} {space 3}4.940659 {txt:(mean)}}{p_end}
{p2colreset}{...}
{txt}{p2colset 1 14 16 2}{...}
{p2col: }{space 2}{res:{txt:youthBulgeln}{space 4}{txt:=} {space 3}2.888049 {txt:(mean)}}{p_end}
{p2colreset}{...}
{txt}{p2colset 1 14 16 2}{...}
{p2col: }{space 2}{res:{txt:v2x_juconln}{space 5}{txt:=} {space 2}-.7291509 {txt:(mean)}}{p_end}
{p2colreset}{...}
{txt}{p2colset 1 14 16 2}{...}
{p2col: }{space 2}{res:{txt:conflictYear}{space 4}{txt:=} {space 3}.1611722 {txt:(mean)}}{p_end}
{p2colreset}{...}
{txt}{p2colset 1 14 16 2}{...}
{p2col: }{space 2}{res:{txt:gdpPerCapi~z}{space 4}{txt:=} {space 2}-.0923083 {txt:(mean)}}{p_end}
{p2colreset}{...}
{txt}{p2colset 1 14 16 2}{...}
{p2col: }{space 2}{res:{txt:population_z}{space 4}{txt:=} {space 2}-.0075523 {txt:(mean)}}{p_end}
{p2colreset}{...}

{res}{txt}{hline 13}{c TT}{hline 11}{hline 11}{hline 9}{hline 8}{hline 13}{hline 12}
{col 14}{c |}{col 26} Delta-method
{col 14}{c |}      dy/dx{col 26}   Std. Err.{col 38}      z{col 46}   P>|z|{col 54}     [95% Con{col 67}f. Interval]
{hline 13}{c +}{hline 11}{hline 11}{hline 9}{hline 8}{hline 13}{hline 12}
{space 3}CAT_ratif {c |}
{space 5}member  {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2} 1.164516{col 26}{space 2} .1409767{col 37}{space 1}    8.26{col 46}{space 3}0.000{col 54}{space 4} .8882072{col 67}{space 3} 1.440826
{txt}{hline 13}{c BT}{hline 11}{hline 11}{hline 9}{hline 8}{hline 13}{hline 12}
{p 0 6 0 78}Note: dy/dx for factor levels is the discrete change from the base level.{txt}{p_end}
{res}{txt}
{com}. matrix table = r(table)
{txt}
{com}. matrix list table
{res}
{txt}table[9,2]
               0b.         1.
        CAT_ratif  CAT_ratif
     b {res}         0  1.1645164
{txt}    se {res}         .  .14097671
{txt}     z {res}         .  8.2603461
{txt}pvalue {res}         .  1.453e-16
{txt}    ll {res}         .  .88820715
{txt}    ul {res}         .  1.4408257
{txt}    df {res}         .          .
{txt}  crit {res}  1.959964   1.959964
{txt} eform {res}         0          0
{reset}
{com}. replace low = table[1,2] - 1.96*table[2,2] in 2
{txt}(1 real change made)

{com}. replace high = table[1,2] + 1.96*table[2,2] in 2
{txt}(1 real change made)

{com}. replace est = table[1,2] in 2
{txt}(1 real change made)

{com}. gen x = 1 in 1
{txt}(3,612 missing values generated)

{com}. replace x = 2 in 2
{txt}(1 real change made)

{com}. #delimit ;
{txt}delimiter now ;
{com}. twoway scatter est x, xsca(r(0.5 2.5)) ylabel(-1.0 -0.5 0 0.5 1.0 1.5 2.0) xlabel(1 "PTS low" 2 "PTS high") xtitle("") yline(0) mcolor(gs10) msize(medlarge) ||
> rcap low high x,  lcolor(gs10) lwidth(medthick) ytitle("Predicted effect of CAT on restrictions") ||
> scatter est x in 2, mcolor(gs0) msize(medlarge) ||
> rcap low high x in 2, lcolor(gs0)  lwidth(medthick)
> scheme(p2bar) graphregion(fcolor(white) lstyle(none)) legend(off) ;
{txt}(note: scheme p2bar not found, using s2color)
{res}{txt}
{com}. graph export ".\Figures\Figure9.png", replace ;
{txt}(file .\Figures\Figure9.png written in PNG format)

{com}. #delimit cr
{txt}delimiter now cr
{com}. 
. 
. * Figure 7
. margins, predict(mu) at(pts_stateDep = (1(1)5) CAT_ratif =(0 1) ) atmeans
{res}
{txt}Adjusted predictions{col 49}Number of obs{col 67}= {res}     2,730
{txt}Model VCE{col 14}: {res}Conventional

{txt}{p2colset 1 14 16 2}{...}
{p2col:Expression}:{space 1}{res:Negative binomial prediction, predict(mu)}{p_end}
{p2colreset}{...}

{txt}{p2colset 1 14 16 2}{...}
{p2col:1._at}:{space 1}{res:{txt:pts_stateDep}{space 4}{txt:=} {space 10}1}{p_end}
{p2colreset}{...}
{txt}{p2colset 1 14 16 2}{...}
{p2col: }{space 2}{res:{txt:CAT_ratif}{space 7}{txt:=} {space 10}0}{p_end}
{p2colreset}{...}
{txt}{p2colset 1 14 16 2}{...}
{p2col: }{space 2}{res:{txt:protest_Cl~1}{space 4}{txt:=} {space 3}.9611858 {txt:(mean)}}{p_end}
{p2colreset}{...}
{txt}{p2colset 1 14 16 2}{...}
{p2col: }{space 2}{res:{txt:exconst}{space 9}{txt:=} {space 3}4.940659 {txt:(mean)}}{p_end}
{p2colreset}{...}
{txt}{p2colset 1 14 16 2}{...}
{p2col: }{space 2}{res:{txt:youthBulgeln}{space 4}{txt:=} {space 3}2.888049 {txt:(mean)}}{p_end}
{p2colreset}{...}
{txt}{p2colset 1 14 16 2}{...}
{p2col: }{space 2}{res:{txt:v2x_juconln}{space 5}{txt:=} {space 2}-.7291509 {txt:(mean)}}{p_end}
{p2colreset}{...}
{txt}{p2colset 1 14 16 2}{...}
{p2col: }{space 2}{res:{txt:conflictYear}{space 4}{txt:=} {space 3}.1611722 {txt:(mean)}}{p_end}
{p2colreset}{...}
{txt}{p2colset 1 14 16 2}{...}
{p2col: }{space 2}{res:{txt:gdpPerCapi~z}{space 4}{txt:=} {space 2}-.0923083 {txt:(mean)}}{p_end}
{p2colreset}{...}
{txt}{p2colset 1 14 16 2}{...}
{p2col: }{space 2}{res:{txt:population_z}{space 4}{txt:=} {space 2}-.0075523 {txt:(mean)}}{p_end}
{p2colreset}{...}

{txt}{p2colset 1 14 16 2}{...}
{p2col:2._at}:{space 1}{res:{txt:pts_stateDep}{space 4}{txt:=} {space 10}1}{p_end}
{p2colreset}{...}
{txt}{p2colset 1 14 16 2}{...}
{p2col: }{space 2}{res:{txt:CAT_ratif}{space 7}{txt:=} {space 10}1}{p_end}
{p2colreset}{...}
{txt}{p2colset 1 14 16 2}{...}
{p2col: }{space 2}{res:{txt:protest_Cl~1}{space 4}{txt:=} {space 3}.9611858 {txt:(mean)}}{p_end}
{p2colreset}{...}
{txt}{p2colset 1 14 16 2}{...}
{p2col: }{space 2}{res:{txt:exconst}{space 9}{txt:=} {space 3}4.940659 {txt:(mean)}}{p_end}
{p2colreset}{...}
{txt}{p2colset 1 14 16 2}{...}
{p2col: }{space 2}{res:{txt:youthBulgeln}{space 4}{txt:=} {space 3}2.888049 {txt:(mean)}}{p_end}
{p2colreset}{...}
{txt}{p2colset 1 14 16 2}{...}
{p2col: }{space 2}{res:{txt:v2x_juconln}{space 5}{txt:=} {space 2}-.7291509 {txt:(mean)}}{p_end}
{p2colreset}{...}
{txt}{p2colset 1 14 16 2}{...}
{p2col: }{space 2}{res:{txt:conflictYear}{space 4}{txt:=} {space 3}.1611722 {txt:(mean)}}{p_end}
{p2colreset}{...}
{txt}{p2colset 1 14 16 2}{...}
{p2col: }{space 2}{res:{txt:gdpPerCapi~z}{space 4}{txt:=} {space 2}-.0923083 {txt:(mean)}}{p_end}
{p2colreset}{...}
{txt}{p2colset 1 14 16 2}{...}
{p2col: }{space 2}{res:{txt:population_z}{space 4}{txt:=} {space 2}-.0075523 {txt:(mean)}}{p_end}
{p2colreset}{...}

{txt}{p2colset 1 14 16 2}{...}
{p2col:3._at}:{space 1}{res:{txt:pts_stateDep}{space 4}{txt:=} {space 10}2}{p_end}
{p2colreset}{...}
{txt}{p2colset 1 14 16 2}{...}
{p2col: }{space 2}{res:{txt:CAT_ratif}{space 7}{txt:=} {space 10}0}{p_end}
{p2colreset}{...}
{txt}{p2colset 1 14 16 2}{...}
{p2col: }{space 2}{res:{txt:protest_Cl~1}{space 4}{txt:=} {space 3}.9611858 {txt:(mean)}}{p_end}
{p2colreset}{...}
{txt}{p2colset 1 14 16 2}{...}
{p2col: }{space 2}{res:{txt:exconst}{space 9}{txt:=} {space 3}4.940659 {txt:(mean)}}{p_end}
{p2colreset}{...}
{txt}{p2colset 1 14 16 2}{...}
{p2col: }{space 2}{res:{txt:youthBulgeln}{space 4}{txt:=} {space 3}2.888049 {txt:(mean)}}{p_end}
{p2colreset}{...}
{txt}{p2colset 1 14 16 2}{...}
{p2col: }{space 2}{res:{txt:v2x_juconln}{space 5}{txt:=} {space 2}-.7291509 {txt:(mean)}}{p_end}
{p2colreset}{...}
{txt}{p2colset 1 14 16 2}{...}
{p2col: }{space 2}{res:{txt:conflictYear}{space 4}{txt:=} {space 3}.1611722 {txt:(mean)}}{p_end}
{p2colreset}{...}
{txt}{p2colset 1 14 16 2}{...}
{p2col: }{space 2}{res:{txt:gdpPerCapi~z}{space 4}{txt:=} {space 2}-.0923083 {txt:(mean)}}{p_end}
{p2colreset}{...}
{txt}{p2colset 1 14 16 2}{...}
{p2col: }{space 2}{res:{txt:population_z}{space 4}{txt:=} {space 2}-.0075523 {txt:(mean)}}{p_end}
{p2colreset}{...}

{txt}{p2colset 1 14 16 2}{...}
{p2col:4._at}:{space 1}{res:{txt:pts_stateDep}{space 4}{txt:=} {space 10}2}{p_end}
{p2colreset}{...}
{txt}{p2colset 1 14 16 2}{...}
{p2col: }{space 2}{res:{txt:CAT_ratif}{space 7}{txt:=} {space 10}1}{p_end}
{p2colreset}{...}
{txt}{p2colset 1 14 16 2}{...}
{p2col: }{space 2}{res:{txt:protest_Cl~1}{space 4}{txt:=} {space 3}.9611858 {txt:(mean)}}{p_end}
{p2colreset}{...}
{txt}{p2colset 1 14 16 2}{...}
{p2col: }{space 2}{res:{txt:exconst}{space 9}{txt:=} {space 3}4.940659 {txt:(mean)}}{p_end}
{p2colreset}{...}
{txt}{p2colset 1 14 16 2}{...}
{p2col: }{space 2}{res:{txt:youthBulgeln}{space 4}{txt:=} {space 3}2.888049 {txt:(mean)}}{p_end}
{p2colreset}{...}
{txt}{p2colset 1 14 16 2}{...}
{p2col: }{space 2}{res:{txt:v2x_juconln}{space 5}{txt:=} {space 2}-.7291509 {txt:(mean)}}{p_end}
{p2colreset}{...}
{txt}{p2colset 1 14 16 2}{...}
{p2col: }{space 2}{res:{txt:conflictYear}{space 4}{txt:=} {space 3}.1611722 {txt:(mean)}}{p_end}
{p2colreset}{...}
{txt}{p2colset 1 14 16 2}{...}
{p2col: }{space 2}{res:{txt:gdpPerCapi~z}{space 4}{txt:=} {space 2}-.0923083 {txt:(mean)}}{p_end}
{p2colreset}{...}
{txt}{p2colset 1 14 16 2}{...}
{p2col: }{space 2}{res:{txt:population_z}{space 4}{txt:=} {space 2}-.0075523 {txt:(mean)}}{p_end}
{p2colreset}{...}

{txt}{p2colset 1 14 16 2}{...}
{p2col:5._at}:{space 1}{res:{txt:pts_stateDep}{space 4}{txt:=} {space 10}3}{p_end}
{p2colreset}{...}
{txt}{p2colset 1 14 16 2}{...}
{p2col: }{space 2}{res:{txt:CAT_ratif}{space 7}{txt:=} {space 10}0}{p_end}
{p2colreset}{...}
{txt}{p2colset 1 14 16 2}{...}
{p2col: }{space 2}{res:{txt:protest_Cl~1}{space 4}{txt:=} {space 3}.9611858 {txt:(mean)}}{p_end}
{p2colreset}{...}
{txt}{p2colset 1 14 16 2}{...}
{p2col: }{space 2}{res:{txt:exconst}{space 9}{txt:=} {space 3}4.940659 {txt:(mean)}}{p_end}
{p2colreset}{...}
{txt}{p2colset 1 14 16 2}{...}
{p2col: }{space 2}{res:{txt:youthBulgeln}{space 4}{txt:=} {space 3}2.888049 {txt:(mean)}}{p_end}
{p2colreset}{...}
{txt}{p2colset 1 14 16 2}{...}
{p2col: }{space 2}{res:{txt:v2x_juconln}{space 5}{txt:=} {space 2}-.7291509 {txt:(mean)}}{p_end}
{p2colreset}{...}
{txt}{p2colset 1 14 16 2}{...}
{p2col: }{space 2}{res:{txt:conflictYear}{space 4}{txt:=} {space 3}.1611722 {txt:(mean)}}{p_end}
{p2colreset}{...}
{txt}{p2colset 1 14 16 2}{...}
{p2col: }{space 2}{res:{txt:gdpPerCapi~z}{space 4}{txt:=} {space 2}-.0923083 {txt:(mean)}}{p_end}
{p2colreset}{...}
{txt}{p2colset 1 14 16 2}{...}
{p2col: }{space 2}{res:{txt:population_z}{space 4}{txt:=} {space 2}-.0075523 {txt:(mean)}}{p_end}
{p2colreset}{...}

{txt}{p2colset 1 14 16 2}{...}
{p2col:6._at}:{space 1}{res:{txt:pts_stateDep}{space 4}{txt:=} {space 10}3}{p_end}
{p2colreset}{...}
{txt}{p2colset 1 14 16 2}{...}
{p2col: }{space 2}{res:{txt:CAT_ratif}{space 7}{txt:=} {space 10}1}{p_end}
{p2colreset}{...}
{txt}{p2colset 1 14 16 2}{...}
{p2col: }{space 2}{res:{txt:protest_Cl~1}{space 4}{txt:=} {space 3}.9611858 {txt:(mean)}}{p_end}
{p2colreset}{...}
{txt}{p2colset 1 14 16 2}{...}
{p2col: }{space 2}{res:{txt:exconst}{space 9}{txt:=} {space 3}4.940659 {txt:(mean)}}{p_end}
{p2colreset}{...}
{txt}{p2colset 1 14 16 2}{...}
{p2col: }{space 2}{res:{txt:youthBulgeln}{space 4}{txt:=} {space 3}2.888049 {txt:(mean)}}{p_end}
{p2colreset}{...}
{txt}{p2colset 1 14 16 2}{...}
{p2col: }{space 2}{res:{txt:v2x_juconln}{space 5}{txt:=} {space 2}-.7291509 {txt:(mean)}}{p_end}
{p2colreset}{...}
{txt}{p2colset 1 14 16 2}{...}
{p2col: }{space 2}{res:{txt:conflictYear}{space 4}{txt:=} {space 3}.1611722 {txt:(mean)}}{p_end}
{p2colreset}{...}
{txt}{p2colset 1 14 16 2}{...}
{p2col: }{space 2}{res:{txt:gdpPerCapi~z}{space 4}{txt:=} {space 2}-.0923083 {txt:(mean)}}{p_end}
{p2colreset}{...}
{txt}{p2colset 1 14 16 2}{...}
{p2col: }{space 2}{res:{txt:population_z}{space 4}{txt:=} {space 2}-.0075523 {txt:(mean)}}{p_end}
{p2colreset}{...}

{txt}{p2colset 1 14 16 2}{...}
{p2col:7._at}:{space 1}{res:{txt:pts_stateDep}{space 4}{txt:=} {space 10}4}{p_end}
{p2colreset}{...}
{txt}{p2colset 1 14 16 2}{...}
{p2col: }{space 2}{res:{txt:CAT_ratif}{space 7}{txt:=} {space 10}0}{p_end}
{p2colreset}{...}
{txt}{p2colset 1 14 16 2}{...}
{p2col: }{space 2}{res:{txt:protest_Cl~1}{space 4}{txt:=} {space 3}.9611858 {txt:(mean)}}{p_end}
{p2colreset}{...}
{txt}{p2colset 1 14 16 2}{...}
{p2col: }{space 2}{res:{txt:exconst}{space 9}{txt:=} {space 3}4.940659 {txt:(mean)}}{p_end}
{p2colreset}{...}
{txt}{p2colset 1 14 16 2}{...}
{p2col: }{space 2}{res:{txt:youthBulgeln}{space 4}{txt:=} {space 3}2.888049 {txt:(mean)}}{p_end}
{p2colreset}{...}
{txt}{p2colset 1 14 16 2}{...}
{p2col: }{space 2}{res:{txt:v2x_juconln}{space 5}{txt:=} {space 2}-.7291509 {txt:(mean)}}{p_end}
{p2colreset}{...}
{txt}{p2colset 1 14 16 2}{...}
{p2col: }{space 2}{res:{txt:conflictYear}{space 4}{txt:=} {space 3}.1611722 {txt:(mean)}}{p_end}
{p2colreset}{...}
{txt}{p2colset 1 14 16 2}{...}
{p2col: }{space 2}{res:{txt:gdpPerCapi~z}{space 4}{txt:=} {space 2}-.0923083 {txt:(mean)}}{p_end}
{p2colreset}{...}
{txt}{p2colset 1 14 16 2}{...}
{p2col: }{space 2}{res:{txt:population_z}{space 4}{txt:=} {space 2}-.0075523 {txt:(mean)}}{p_end}
{p2colreset}{...}

{txt}{p2colset 1 14 16 2}{...}
{p2col:8._at}:{space 1}{res:{txt:pts_stateDep}{space 4}{txt:=} {space 10}4}{p_end}
{p2colreset}{...}
{txt}{p2colset 1 14 16 2}{...}
{p2col: }{space 2}{res:{txt:CAT_ratif}{space 7}{txt:=} {space 10}1}{p_end}
{p2colreset}{...}
{txt}{p2colset 1 14 16 2}{...}
{p2col: }{space 2}{res:{txt:protest_Cl~1}{space 4}{txt:=} {space 3}.9611858 {txt:(mean)}}{p_end}
{p2colreset}{...}
{txt}{p2colset 1 14 16 2}{...}
{p2col: }{space 2}{res:{txt:exconst}{space 9}{txt:=} {space 3}4.940659 {txt:(mean)}}{p_end}
{p2colreset}{...}
{txt}{p2colset 1 14 16 2}{...}
{p2col: }{space 2}{res:{txt:youthBulgeln}{space 4}{txt:=} {space 3}2.888049 {txt:(mean)}}{p_end}
{p2colreset}{...}
{txt}{p2colset 1 14 16 2}{...}
{p2col: }{space 2}{res:{txt:v2x_juconln}{space 5}{txt:=} {space 2}-.7291509 {txt:(mean)}}{p_end}
{p2colreset}{...}
{txt}{p2colset 1 14 16 2}{...}
{p2col: }{space 2}{res:{txt:conflictYear}{space 4}{txt:=} {space 3}.1611722 {txt:(mean)}}{p_end}
{p2colreset}{...}
{txt}{p2colset 1 14 16 2}{...}
{p2col: }{space 2}{res:{txt:gdpPerCapi~z}{space 4}{txt:=} {space 2}-.0923083 {txt:(mean)}}{p_end}
{p2colreset}{...}
{txt}{p2colset 1 14 16 2}{...}
{p2col: }{space 2}{res:{txt:population_z}{space 4}{txt:=} {space 2}-.0075523 {txt:(mean)}}{p_end}
{p2colreset}{...}

{txt}{p2colset 1 14 16 2}{...}
{p2col:9._at}:{space 1}{res:{txt:pts_stateDep}{space 4}{txt:=} {space 10}5}{p_end}
{p2colreset}{...}
{txt}{p2colset 1 14 16 2}{...}
{p2col: }{space 2}{res:{txt:CAT_ratif}{space 7}{txt:=} {space 10}0}{p_end}
{p2colreset}{...}
{txt}{p2colset 1 14 16 2}{...}
{p2col: }{space 2}{res:{txt:protest_Cl~1}{space 4}{txt:=} {space 3}.9611858 {txt:(mean)}}{p_end}
{p2colreset}{...}
{txt}{p2colset 1 14 16 2}{...}
{p2col: }{space 2}{res:{txt:exconst}{space 9}{txt:=} {space 3}4.940659 {txt:(mean)}}{p_end}
{p2colreset}{...}
{txt}{p2colset 1 14 16 2}{...}
{p2col: }{space 2}{res:{txt:youthBulgeln}{space 4}{txt:=} {space 3}2.888049 {txt:(mean)}}{p_end}
{p2colreset}{...}
{txt}{p2colset 1 14 16 2}{...}
{p2col: }{space 2}{res:{txt:v2x_juconln}{space 5}{txt:=} {space 2}-.7291509 {txt:(mean)}}{p_end}
{p2colreset}{...}
{txt}{p2colset 1 14 16 2}{...}
{p2col: }{space 2}{res:{txt:conflictYear}{space 4}{txt:=} {space 3}.1611722 {txt:(mean)}}{p_end}
{p2colreset}{...}
{txt}{p2colset 1 14 16 2}{...}
{p2col: }{space 2}{res:{txt:gdpPerCapi~z}{space 4}{txt:=} {space 2}-.0923083 {txt:(mean)}}{p_end}
{p2colreset}{...}
{txt}{p2colset 1 14 16 2}{...}
{p2col: }{space 2}{res:{txt:population_z}{space 4}{txt:=} {space 2}-.0075523 {txt:(mean)}}{p_end}
{p2colreset}{...}

{txt}{p2colset 1 14 16 2}{...}
{p2col:10._at}:{space 1}{res:{txt:pts_stateDep}{space 4}{txt:=} {space 10}5}{p_end}
{p2colreset}{...}
{txt}{p2colset 1 14 16 2}{...}
{p2col: }{space 2}{res:{txt:CAT_ratif}{space 7}{txt:=} {space 10}1}{p_end}
{p2colreset}{...}
{txt}{p2colset 1 14 16 2}{...}
{p2col: }{space 2}{res:{txt:protest_Cl~1}{space 4}{txt:=} {space 3}.9611858 {txt:(mean)}}{p_end}
{p2colreset}{...}
{txt}{p2colset 1 14 16 2}{...}
{p2col: }{space 2}{res:{txt:exconst}{space 9}{txt:=} {space 3}4.940659 {txt:(mean)}}{p_end}
{p2colreset}{...}
{txt}{p2colset 1 14 16 2}{...}
{p2col: }{space 2}{res:{txt:youthBulgeln}{space 4}{txt:=} {space 3}2.888049 {txt:(mean)}}{p_end}
{p2colreset}{...}
{txt}{p2colset 1 14 16 2}{...}
{p2col: }{space 2}{res:{txt:v2x_juconln}{space 5}{txt:=} {space 2}-.7291509 {txt:(mean)}}{p_end}
{p2colreset}{...}
{txt}{p2colset 1 14 16 2}{...}
{p2col: }{space 2}{res:{txt:conflictYear}{space 4}{txt:=} {space 3}.1611722 {txt:(mean)}}{p_end}
{p2colreset}{...}
{txt}{p2colset 1 14 16 2}{...}
{p2col: }{space 2}{res:{txt:gdpPerCapi~z}{space 4}{txt:=} {space 2}-.0923083 {txt:(mean)}}{p_end}
{p2colreset}{...}
{txt}{p2colset 1 14 16 2}{...}
{p2col: }{space 2}{res:{txt:population_z}{space 4}{txt:=} {space 2}-.0075523 {txt:(mean)}}{p_end}
{p2colreset}{...}

{res}{txt}{hline 13}{c TT}{hline 11}{hline 11}{hline 9}{hline 8}{hline 13}{hline 12}
{col 14}{c |}{col 26} Delta-method
{col 14}{c |}     Margin{col 26}   Std. Err.{col 38}      z{col 46}   P>|z|{col 54}     [95% Con{col 67}f. Interval]
{hline 13}{c +}{hline 11}{hline 11}{hline 9}{hline 8}{hline 13}{hline 12}
{space 9}_at {c |}
{space 10}1  {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2} .7847003{col 26}{space 2} .1026791{col 37}{space 1}    7.64{col 46}{space 3}0.000{col 54}{space 4}  .583453{col 67}{space 3} .9859477
{txt}{space 10}2  {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2} .4163633{col 26}{space 2}  .034496{col 37}{space 1}   12.07{col 46}{space 3}0.000{col 54}{space 4} .3487524{col 67}{space 3} .4839742
{txt}{space 10}3  {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2} .7743832{col 26}{space 2} .0790678{col 37}{space 1}    9.79{col 46}{space 3}0.000{col 54}{space 4} .6194132{col 67}{space 3} .9293532
{txt}{space 10}4  {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2} .5608603{col 26}{space 2} .0421547{col 37}{space 1}   13.30{col 46}{space 3}0.000{col 54}{space 4} .4782387{col 67}{space 3} .6434819
{txt}{space 10}5  {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2} .7642599{col 26}{space 2} .0667229{col 37}{space 1}   11.45{col 46}{space 3}0.000{col 54}{space 4} .6334853{col 67}{space 3} .8950344
{txt}{space 10}6  {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2}  .783235{col 26}{space 2}  .054434{col 37}{space 1}   14.39{col 46}{space 3}0.000{col 54}{space 4} .6765464{col 67}{space 3} .8899237
{txt}{space 10}7  {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2} .7543251{col 26}{space 2} .0698746{col 37}{space 1}   10.80{col 46}{space 3}0.000{col 54}{space 4} .6173734{col 67}{space 3} .8912769
{txt}{space 10}8  {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2} 1.159263{col 26}{space 2} .0800331{col 37}{space 1}   14.48{col 46}{space 3}0.000{col 54}{space 4} 1.002401{col 67}{space 3} 1.316125
{txt}{space 10}9  {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2}  .744574{col 26}{space 2} .0854675{col 37}{space 1}    8.71{col 46}{space 3}0.000{col 54}{space 4} .5770609{col 67}{space 3} .9120872
{txt}{space 9}10  {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2}  1.90909{col 26}{space 2} .1598802{col 37}{space 1}   11.94{col 46}{space 3}0.000{col 54}{space 4} 1.595731{col 67}{space 3}  2.22245
{txt}{hline 13}{c BT}{hline 11}{hline 11}{hline 9}{hline 8}{hline 13}{hline 12}
{res}{txt}
{com}. #delimit ;
{txt}delimiter now ;
{com}. marginsplot, xtitle("Political Terror Scale (PTS)") 
> title("")
> ytitle("Predicted number of restrictions")
> legend(label(1 "CAT not ratified") label(2 "CAT ratified")) legend(order(1 2))  
> scheme(p2bar) graphregion(fcolor(white) lstyle(none)) 
> recast(line) plotopts(lwidth(medthick) lcolor(gs2)) 
> recastci(rline) ciopts(lpattern(dash) lwidth(medthick) lcolor(gs2)) ;

{text}{p 2 6 2}Variables that uniquely identify margins: pts_stateDep CAT_ratif{p_end}
(note: scheme p2bar not found, using s2color)
{res}{txt}
{com}. gr_edit plotregion1.plot1.style.editstyle area(linestyle(color(gs10))) editcopy ;
{res}{txt}
{com}. gr_edit plotregion1.plot3.style.editstyle line(color(gs10)) editcopy ;
{res}{txt}
{com}. graph export ".\Figures\Figure7.png", replace ;
{txt}(file .\Figures\Figure7.png written in PNG format)

{com}. #delimit cr
{txt}delimiter now cr
{com}. 
. 
. 
. 
. ** Model 4A: CAT and Farriss
. xtgee restrictionCount2 c.farissHumanRightsScores##i.CAT_ratif if YEAR>1994, force corr(ar 1) family(nbinom) link (nbinom)  vce(robust)
{txt}note:  some groups have fewer than 2 observations
       not possible to estimate correlations for those groups
       2 groups omitted from estimation


Iteration 1: tolerance = {res}.08511718
{txt}Iteration 2: tolerance = {res}.00859703
{txt}Iteration 3: tolerance = {res}.00240086
{txt}Iteration 4: tolerance = {res}.00015794
{txt}Iteration 5: tolerance = {res}.00001689
{txt}Iteration 6: tolerance = {res}1.720e-06
{txt}Iteration 7: tolerance = {res}1.977e-07

{txt}GEE population-averaged model                   Number of obs     = {res}     2,995
{txt}Group and time vars:          {res}cowcode YEAR      {txt}Number of groups  = {res}       173
{txt}Link:                    {res}negative binomial      {txt}Obs per group:
Family:             {res}negative binomial(k=1)                    {txt}min = {res}         3
{txt}Correlation:                         {res}AR(1)                    {txt}avg = {res}      17.3
                                                              {txt}max = {res}        19
                                                {txt}Wald chi2({res}3{txt})      =  {res}    94.41
{txt}Scale parameter:                 {res}        1      {txt}Prob > chi2       =     {res}0.0000

{txt}{ralign 101:(Std. Err. adjusted for clustering on cowcode)}
{hline 36}{c TT}{hline 11}{hline 11}{hline 9}{hline 8}{hline 13}{hline 12}
{col 37}{c |}{col 49}    Robust
{col 1}                  restrictionCount2{col 37}{c |}      Coef.{col 49}   Std. Err.{col 61}      z{col 69}   P>|z|{col 77}     [95% Con{col 90}f. Interval]
{hline 36}{c +}{hline 11}{hline 11}{hline 9}{hline 8}{hline 13}{hline 12}
{space 12}farissHumanRightsScores {c |}{col 37}{res}{space 2} .2014918{col 49}{space 2} .0302879{col 60}{space 1}    6.65{col 69}{space 3}0.000{col 77}{space 4} .1421285{col 90}{space 3}  .260855
{txt}{space 35} {c |}
{space 26}CAT_ratif {c |}
{space 28}member  {c |}{col 37}{res}{space 2} .0483873{col 49}{space 2}  .049599{col 60}{space 1}    0.98{col 69}{space 3}0.329{col 77}{space 4}-.0488248{col 90}{space 3} .1455995
{txt}{space 35} {c |}
CAT_ratif#c.farissHumanRightsScores {c |}
{space 28}member  {c |}{col 37}{res}{space 2} .0184526{col 49}{space 2} .0301902{col 60}{space 1}    0.61{col 69}{space 3}0.541{col 77}{space 4}-.0407192{col 90}{space 3} .0776244
{txt}{space 35} {c |}
{space 30}_cons {c |}{col 37}{res}{space 2}-.6818916{col 49}{space 2} .0551279{col 60}{space 1}  -12.37{col 69}{space 3}0.000{col 77}{space 4}-.7899403{col 90}{space 3} -.573843
{txt}{hline 36}{c BT}{hline 11}{hline 11}{hline 9}{hline 8}{hline 13}{hline 12}

{com}. outreg2 using ".\Tables\Table2.doc", append ctitle(Model 4A) label dec(3) symbol(**,*,+) addstat(Deviance, `e(deviance)')
{txt}{stata `"shellout using `".\Tables\Table2.doc"'"':.\Tables\Table2.doc}
{browse `"C:\Users\smidt\Dropbox\PC\Documents\PaperProjects\Paper-Cracking Down on HR defenders\Analysis\Code\Replication"' :dir}{com} : {txt}{stata `"seeout using ".\Tables\Table2.txt", label"':seeout}

{com}. 
. ** Model 4B: CAT and Farriss
. xtgee restrictionCount2 c.farissHumanRightsScores##i.CAT_ratif protest_ClarkRegan_logLag1 exconst youthBulgeln v2x_juconln conflictYear gdpPerCapita_z population_z if YEAR>=1994, corr(ar 1) family(nbinom) link(nbinom) tol(0.02)

{txt}note:  observations not equally spaced
       modal spacing is delta YEAR = 1 year
       10 groups omitted from estimation
note:  some groups have fewer than 2 observations
       not possible to estimate correlations for those groups
       3 groups omitted from estimation


Iteration 1: tolerance = {res}.0722715
{txt}Iteration 2: tolerance = {res}.04222581
{txt}Iteration 3: tolerance = {res}.02818374
{txt}Iteration 4: tolerance = {res}.02750799
{txt}Iteration 5: tolerance = {res}.02073648
{txt}Iteration 6: tolerance = {res}.02860027
{txt}Iteration 7: tolerance = {res}.04482305
{txt}Iteration 8: tolerance = {res}.04054298
{txt}Iteration 9: tolerance = {res}.01681996

{txt}GEE population-averaged model                   Number of obs     = {res}     2,480
{txt}Group and time vars:          {res}cowcode YEAR      {txt}Number of groups  = {res}       136
{txt}Link:                    {res}negative binomial      {txt}Obs per group:
Family:             {res}negative binomial(k=1)                    {txt}min = {res}         2
{txt}Correlation:                         {res}AR(1)                    {txt}avg = {res}      18.2
                                                              {txt}max = {res}        19
                                                {txt}Wald chi2({res}10{txt})     =  {res}   479.50
{txt}Scale parameter:                 {res}        1      {txt}Prob > chi2       =     {res}0.0000

{txt}{hline 36}{c TT}{hline 11}{hline 11}{hline 9}{hline 8}{hline 13}{hline 12}
{col 1}                  restrictionCount2{col 37}{c |}      Coef.{col 49}   Std. Err.{col 61}      z{col 69}   P>|z|{col 77}     [95% Con{col 90}f. Interval]
{hline 36}{c +}{hline 11}{hline 11}{hline 9}{hline 8}{hline 13}{hline 12}
{space 12}farissHumanRightsScores {c |}{col 37}{res}{space 2} .1271456{col 49}{space 2} .0395427{col 60}{space 1}    3.22{col 69}{space 3}0.001{col 77}{space 4} .0496433{col 90}{space 3} .2046479
{txt}{space 35} {c |}
{space 26}CAT_ratif {c |}
{space 28}member  {c |}{col 37}{res}{space 2} .1357987{col 49}{space 2} .0604893{col 60}{space 1}    2.25{col 69}{space 3}0.025{col 77}{space 4} .0172418{col 90}{space 3} .2543556
{txt}{space 35} {c |}
CAT_ratif#c.farissHumanRightsScores {c |}
{space 28}member  {c |}{col 37}{res}{space 2} .1624929{col 49}{space 2} .0458865{col 60}{space 1}    3.54{col 69}{space 3}0.000{col 77}{space 4}  .072557{col 90}{space 3} .2524288
{txt}{space 35} {c |}
{space 9}protest_ClarkRegan_logLag1 {c |}{col 37}{res}{space 2} .0036572{col 49}{space 2}  .007865{col 60}{space 1}    0.46{col 69}{space 3}0.642{col 77}{space 4}-.0117579{col 90}{space 3} .0190723
{txt}{space 28}exconst {c |}{col 37}{res}{space 2}-.0548593{col 49}{space 2} .0100047{col 60}{space 1}   -5.48{col 69}{space 3}0.000{col 77}{space 4}-.0744682{col 90}{space 3}-.0352505
{txt}{space 23}youthBulgeln {c |}{col 37}{res}{space 2} 1.330907{col 49}{space 2} .1689858{col 60}{space 1}    7.88{col 69}{space 3}0.000{col 77}{space 4} .9997007{col 90}{space 3} 1.662113
{txt}{space 24}v2x_juconln {c |}{col 37}{res}{space 2}-.1825332{col 49}{space 2} .0132549{col 60}{space 1}  -13.77{col 69}{space 3}0.000{col 77}{space 4}-.2085124{col 90}{space 3} -.156554
{txt}{space 23}conflictYear {c |}{col 37}{res}{space 2} .0621791{col 49}{space 2} .0171687{col 60}{space 1}    3.62{col 69}{space 3}0.000{col 77}{space 4} .0285292{col 90}{space 3}  .095829
{txt}{space 21}gdpPerCapita_z {c |}{col 37}{res}{space 2} .1272644{col 49}{space 2} .0258789{col 60}{space 1}    4.92{col 69}{space 3}0.000{col 77}{space 4} .0765428{col 90}{space 3} .1779861
{txt}{space 23}population_z {c |}{col 37}{res}{space 2} .0940707{col 49}{space 2} .0158028{col 60}{space 1}    5.95{col 69}{space 3}0.000{col 77}{space 4} .0630978{col 90}{space 3} .1250437
{txt}{space 30}_cons {c |}{col 37}{res}{space 2}-4.750618{col 49}{space 2}  .531363{col 60}{space 1}   -8.94{col 69}{space 3}0.000{col 77}{space 4} -5.79207{col 90}{space 3}-3.709165
{txt}{hline 36}{c BT}{hline 11}{hline 11}{hline 9}{hline 8}{hline 13}{hline 12}

{com}. outreg2 using ".\Tables\Table2.doc", append ctitle(Model 4B) label dec(3) symbol(**,*,+) addstat(Deviance, `e(deviance)')
{txt}{stata `"shellout using `".\Tables\Table2.doc"'"':.\Tables\Table2.doc}
{browse `"C:\Users\smidt\Dropbox\PC\Documents\PaperProjects\Paper-Cracking Down on HR defenders\Analysis\Code\Replication"' :dir}{com} : {txt}{stata `"seeout using ".\Tables\Table2.txt", label"':seeout}

{com}. 
. 
. ** Delete the "comment out" to compare with marginal effects when using Fariss' data
. /* Figure       
> capture drop low 
> capture drop high 
> capture drop x 
> capture drop est
> margins, dydx(farissHumanRightsScores) at(CAT_ratif =(0) ) atmeans
> matrix table = r(table)
> gen low = table[1,1] - 1.96*table[2,1] in 1
> gen high = table[1,1] + 1.96*table[2,1] in 1
> gen est = table[1,1] in 1
> margins, dydx(farissHumanRightsScores) at(CAT_ratif =(1) ) atmeans
> matrix table = r(table)
> replace low = table[1,1] - 1.96*table[2,1] in 2
> replace high = table[1,1] + 1.96*table[2,1] in 2
> replace est = table[1,1] in 2
> gen x = 1 in 1
> replace x = 2 in 2
> #delimit ;
> twoway scatter est x, xsca(r(0.5 2.5))  xlabel(1 "CAT not ratified" 2 "CAT ratified") xtitle("") yline(0) mcolor(eltblue) msize(medlarge) ||
> rcap low high x,  lcolor(eltblue) lwidth(medthick) ytitle("Predicted effect of latent abuses on restrictions") ||
> scatter est x in 2, mcolor(gs0) msize(medlarge) ||
> rcap low high x in 2, lcolor(gs0)  lwidth(medthick)
> scheme(p2bar) graphregion(fcolor(white) lstyle(none)) legend(off) ;
> graph export "C:\Users\hanna\Dropbox\PC\Documents\Paper-Cracking Down on hr defenders\Analysis\Figures\Effect_CAT_Fariss1.png", replace ;
> #delimit cr
> 
> 
> * Figure
> capture drop low 
> capture drop high 
> capture drop x 
> capture drop est
> margins, dydx(CAT_ratif) at(farissHumanRightsScores =(-2) ) atmeans
> matrix table = r(table)
> gen low = table[1,2] - 1.96*table[2,2] in 1
> gen high = table[1,2] + 1.96*table[2,2] in 1
> gen est = table[1,2] in 1
> margins, dydx(CAT_ratif) at(farissHumanRightsScores =(2) ) atmeans
> matrix table = r(table)
> matrix list table
> replace low = table[1,2] - 1.96*table[2,2] in 2
> replace high = table[1,2] + 1.96*table[2,2] in 2
> replace est = table[1,2] in 2
> gen x = 1 in 1
> replace x = 2 in 2
> #delimit ;
> twoway scatter est x, xsca(r(0.5 2.5))  xlabel(1 "Abuses low" 2 "Abuses high") xtitle("") yline(0) mcolor(eltblue) msize(medlarge) ||
> rcap low high x,  lcolor(eltblue) lwidth(medthick) ytitle("Predicted effect of latent abuses on restrictions") ||
> scatter est x in 2, mcolor(gs0) msize(medlarge) ||
> rcap low high x in 2, lcolor(gs0)  lwidth(medthick)
> scheme(p2bar) graphregion(fcolor(white) lstyle(none)) legend(off) ;
> graph export "C:\Users\hanna\Dropbox\PC\Documents\Paper-Cracking Down on hr defenders\Analysis\Figures\Effect_CAT_Fariss2.png", replace ;
> #delimit cr
> 
> 
> /*margins r.CAT_ratif, predict(mu) at(farissHumanRightsScores = (-4(1)2) ) atmeans
> #delimit ;
> marginsplot, yline(0) xtitle("Fariss latent human rights scores") 
> title("")
> ytitle("Predicted effect of CAT") 
> scheme(p2bar) graphregion(fcolor(white) lstyle(none)) ;
> graph export "C:\Users\hanna\Dropbox\PC\Documents\Paper-Cracking Down on hr defenders\Analysis\Figures\Effect_CAT_Fariss.png", replace ;
> #delimit cr*/
> 
> margins, predict(mu) at(farissHumanRightsScores = (-4(1)2) CAT_ratif =(0 1) ) atmeans
> #delimit ;
> marginsplot, xtitle("Fariss latent human rights scores") 
> title("")
> ytitle("Predicted number of restrictions") 
> legend(label(1 "CAT not ratified") label(2 "CAT ratified")) legend(order(1 2))  
> scheme(p2bar) graphregion(fcolor(white) lstyle(none)) 
> recast(line) plotopts(lwidth(medthick) lcolor(gs2)) 
> recastci(rline) ciopts(lpattern(dash) lwidth(medthick) lcolor(gs2)) ;
> gr_edit plotregion1.plot1.style.editstyle area(linestyle(color(eltblue))) editcopy ;
> gr_edit plotregion1.plot3.style.editstyle line(color(eltblue)) editcopy ;
> graph export "C:\Users\hanna\Dropbox\PC\Documents\Paper-Cracking Down on hr defenders\Analysis\Figures\Predictions_CAT_Fariss.png", replace ;
> #delimit cr
> 
> */
. 
. 
. *****************************************************************************
. ** Main regression analysis: Estimate the marginal effects of all variable **
. ** Model 1B *****************************************************************
. *****************************************************************************
. 
. set seed 1234
{txt}
{com}. 
. * ICCPR (Political Terror Scale = 1)
. quietly: xtgee restrictionCount2 c.pts_stateDep##i.ICCPR_ratif protest_ClarkRegan_logLag1 exconst youthBulgeln v2x_juconln conflictYear gdpPerCapita_z population_z if YEAR>=1994, tol(0.02) force corr(ar 1) family(nbinom) link (nbinom)
{txt}
{com}. local mn = r(mean)
{txt}
{com}. local mnsd = r(mean) + r(sd)
{txt}
{com}. margins, at(ICCPR_ratif = 0 pts_stateDep=1) at(ICCPR_ratif = 1 pts_stateDep=1) atmeans post
{res}
{txt}Adjusted predictions{col 49}Number of obs{col 67}= {res}     2,730
{txt}Model VCE{col 14}: {res}Conventional

{txt}{p2colset 1 14 16 2}{...}
{p2col:Expression}:{space 1}{res:Negative binomial prediction, predict()}{p_end}
{p2colreset}{...}

{txt}{p2colset 1 14 16 2}{...}
{p2col:1._at}:{space 1}{res:{txt:pts_stateDep}{space 4}{txt:=} {space 10}1}{p_end}
{p2colreset}{...}
{txt}{p2colset 1 14 16 2}{...}
{p2col: }{space 2}{res:{txt:ICCPR_ratif}{space 5}{txt:=} {space 10}0}{p_end}
{p2colreset}{...}
{txt}{p2colset 1 14 16 2}{...}
{p2col: }{space 2}{res:{txt:protest_Cl~1}{space 4}{txt:=} {space 3}.9611858 {txt:(mean)}}{p_end}
{p2colreset}{...}
{txt}{p2colset 1 14 16 2}{...}
{p2col: }{space 2}{res:{txt:exconst}{space 9}{txt:=} {space 3}4.940659 {txt:(mean)}}{p_end}
{p2colreset}{...}
{txt}{p2colset 1 14 16 2}{...}
{p2col: }{space 2}{res:{txt:youthBulgeln}{space 4}{txt:=} {space 3}2.888049 {txt:(mean)}}{p_end}
{p2colreset}{...}
{txt}{p2colset 1 14 16 2}{...}
{p2col: }{space 2}{res:{txt:v2x_juconln}{space 5}{txt:=} {space 2}-.7291509 {txt:(mean)}}{p_end}
{p2colreset}{...}
{txt}{p2colset 1 14 16 2}{...}
{p2col: }{space 2}{res:{txt:conflictYear}{space 4}{txt:=} {space 3}.1611722 {txt:(mean)}}{p_end}
{p2colreset}{...}
{txt}{p2colset 1 14 16 2}{...}
{p2col: }{space 2}{res:{txt:gdpPerCapi~z}{space 4}{txt:=} {space 2}-.0923083 {txt:(mean)}}{p_end}
{p2colreset}{...}
{txt}{p2colset 1 14 16 2}{...}
{p2col: }{space 2}{res:{txt:population_z}{space 4}{txt:=} {space 2}-.0075523 {txt:(mean)}}{p_end}
{p2colreset}{...}

{txt}{p2colset 1 14 16 2}{...}
{p2col:2._at}:{space 1}{res:{txt:pts_stateDep}{space 4}{txt:=} {space 10}1}{p_end}
{p2colreset}{...}
{txt}{p2colset 1 14 16 2}{...}
{p2col: }{space 2}{res:{txt:ICCPR_ratif}{space 5}{txt:=} {space 10}1}{p_end}
{p2colreset}{...}
{txt}{p2colset 1 14 16 2}{...}
{p2col: }{space 2}{res:{txt:protest_Cl~1}{space 4}{txt:=} {space 3}.9611858 {txt:(mean)}}{p_end}
{p2colreset}{...}
{txt}{p2colset 1 14 16 2}{...}
{p2col: }{space 2}{res:{txt:exconst}{space 9}{txt:=} {space 3}4.940659 {txt:(mean)}}{p_end}
{p2colreset}{...}
{txt}{p2colset 1 14 16 2}{...}
{p2col: }{space 2}{res:{txt:youthBulgeln}{space 4}{txt:=} {space 3}2.888049 {txt:(mean)}}{p_end}
{p2colreset}{...}
{txt}{p2colset 1 14 16 2}{...}
{p2col: }{space 2}{res:{txt:v2x_juconln}{space 5}{txt:=} {space 2}-.7291509 {txt:(mean)}}{p_end}
{p2colreset}{...}
{txt}{p2colset 1 14 16 2}{...}
{p2col: }{space 2}{res:{txt:conflictYear}{space 4}{txt:=} {space 3}.1611722 {txt:(mean)}}{p_end}
{p2colreset}{...}
{txt}{p2colset 1 14 16 2}{...}
{p2col: }{space 2}{res:{txt:gdpPerCapi~z}{space 4}{txt:=} {space 2}-.0923083 {txt:(mean)}}{p_end}
{p2colreset}{...}
{txt}{p2colset 1 14 16 2}{...}
{p2col: }{space 2}{res:{txt:population_z}{space 4}{txt:=} {space 2}-.0075523 {txt:(mean)}}{p_end}
{p2colreset}{...}

{res}{txt}{hline 13}{c TT}{hline 11}{hline 11}{hline 9}{hline 8}{hline 13}{hline 12}
{col 14}{c |}{col 26} Delta-method
{col 14}{c |}     Margin{col 26}   Std. Err.{col 38}      z{col 46}   P>|z|{col 54}     [95% Con{col 67}f. Interval]
{hline 13}{c +}{hline 11}{hline 11}{hline 9}{hline 8}{hline 13}{hline 12}
{space 9}_at {c |}
{space 10}1  {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2} .8276141{col 26}{space 2} .1326016{col 37}{space 1}    6.24{col 46}{space 3}0.000{col 54}{space 4} .5677197{col 67}{space 3} 1.087509
{txt}{space 10}2  {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2} .4978687{col 26}{space 2} .0381112{col 37}{space 1}   13.06{col 46}{space 3}0.000{col 54}{space 4} .4231721{col 67}{space 3} .5725653
{txt}{hline 13}{c BT}{hline 11}{hline 11}{hline 9}{hline 8}{hline 13}{hline 12}
{res}{txt}
{com}. test _b[1._at] = _b[2._at]

{p 0 7}{space 1}{text:( 1)}{space 1} {res}1bn._at - 2._at = 0{p_end}

{txt}{col 12}chi2(  1) ={res}    6.37
{txt}{col 10}Prob > chi2 =  {res}  0.0116
{txt}
{com}. di _b[2._at] - _b[1._at]
{res}-.32974541
{txt}
{com}. 
. * ICCPR (Political Terror Scale = 5)
. quietly: xtgee restrictionCount2 c.pts_stateDep##i.ICCPR_ratif protest_ClarkRegan_logLag1 exconst youthBulgeln v2x_juconln conflictYear gdpPerCapita_z population_z if YEAR>=1994, tol(0.02) force corr(ar 1) family(nbinom) link (nbinom)
{txt}
{com}. sum ICCPR_ratif

{txt}    Variable {c |}        Obs        Mean    Std. Dev.       Min        Max
{hline 13}{c +}{hline 57}
{space 1}ICCPR_ratif {c |}{res}      3,613    .8342098    .3719437          0          1
{txt}
{com}. margins, at(ICCPR_ratif = 0 pts_stateDep=5) at(ICCPR_ratif = 1 pts_stateDep=5) atmeans post
{res}
{txt}Adjusted predictions{col 49}Number of obs{col 67}= {res}     2,730
{txt}Model VCE{col 14}: {res}Conventional

{txt}{p2colset 1 14 16 2}{...}
{p2col:Expression}:{space 1}{res:Negative binomial prediction, predict()}{p_end}
{p2colreset}{...}

{txt}{p2colset 1 14 16 2}{...}
{p2col:1._at}:{space 1}{res:{txt:pts_stateDep}{space 4}{txt:=} {space 10}5}{p_end}
{p2colreset}{...}
{txt}{p2colset 1 14 16 2}{...}
{p2col: }{space 2}{res:{txt:ICCPR_ratif}{space 5}{txt:=} {space 10}0}{p_end}
{p2colreset}{...}
{txt}{p2colset 1 14 16 2}{...}
{p2col: }{space 2}{res:{txt:protest_Cl~1}{space 4}{txt:=} {space 3}.9611858 {txt:(mean)}}{p_end}
{p2colreset}{...}
{txt}{p2colset 1 14 16 2}{...}
{p2col: }{space 2}{res:{txt:exconst}{space 9}{txt:=} {space 3}4.940659 {txt:(mean)}}{p_end}
{p2colreset}{...}
{txt}{p2colset 1 14 16 2}{...}
{p2col: }{space 2}{res:{txt:youthBulgeln}{space 4}{txt:=} {space 3}2.888049 {txt:(mean)}}{p_end}
{p2colreset}{...}
{txt}{p2colset 1 14 16 2}{...}
{p2col: }{space 2}{res:{txt:v2x_juconln}{space 5}{txt:=} {space 2}-.7291509 {txt:(mean)}}{p_end}
{p2colreset}{...}
{txt}{p2colset 1 14 16 2}{...}
{p2col: }{space 2}{res:{txt:conflictYear}{space 4}{txt:=} {space 3}.1611722 {txt:(mean)}}{p_end}
{p2colreset}{...}
{txt}{p2colset 1 14 16 2}{...}
{p2col: }{space 2}{res:{txt:gdpPerCapi~z}{space 4}{txt:=} {space 2}-.0923083 {txt:(mean)}}{p_end}
{p2colreset}{...}
{txt}{p2colset 1 14 16 2}{...}
{p2col: }{space 2}{res:{txt:population_z}{space 4}{txt:=} {space 2}-.0075523 {txt:(mean)}}{p_end}
{p2colreset}{...}

{txt}{p2colset 1 14 16 2}{...}
{p2col:2._at}:{space 1}{res:{txt:pts_stateDep}{space 4}{txt:=} {space 10}5}{p_end}
{p2colreset}{...}
{txt}{p2colset 1 14 16 2}{...}
{p2col: }{space 2}{res:{txt:ICCPR_ratif}{space 5}{txt:=} {space 10}1}{p_end}
{p2colreset}{...}
{txt}{p2colset 1 14 16 2}{...}
{p2col: }{space 2}{res:{txt:protest_Cl~1}{space 4}{txt:=} {space 3}.9611858 {txt:(mean)}}{p_end}
{p2colreset}{...}
{txt}{p2colset 1 14 16 2}{...}
{p2col: }{space 2}{res:{txt:exconst}{space 9}{txt:=} {space 3}4.940659 {txt:(mean)}}{p_end}
{p2colreset}{...}
{txt}{p2colset 1 14 16 2}{...}
{p2col: }{space 2}{res:{txt:youthBulgeln}{space 4}{txt:=} {space 3}2.888049 {txt:(mean)}}{p_end}
{p2colreset}{...}
{txt}{p2colset 1 14 16 2}{...}
{p2col: }{space 2}{res:{txt:v2x_juconln}{space 5}{txt:=} {space 2}-.7291509 {txt:(mean)}}{p_end}
{p2colreset}{...}
{txt}{p2colset 1 14 16 2}{...}
{p2col: }{space 2}{res:{txt:conflictYear}{space 4}{txt:=} {space 3}.1611722 {txt:(mean)}}{p_end}
{p2colreset}{...}
{txt}{p2colset 1 14 16 2}{...}
{p2col: }{space 2}{res:{txt:gdpPerCapi~z}{space 4}{txt:=} {space 2}-.0923083 {txt:(mean)}}{p_end}
{p2colreset}{...}
{txt}{p2colset 1 14 16 2}{...}
{p2col: }{space 2}{res:{txt:population_z}{space 4}{txt:=} {space 2}-.0075523 {txt:(mean)}}{p_end}
{p2colreset}{...}

{res}{txt}{hline 13}{c TT}{hline 11}{hline 11}{hline 9}{hline 8}{hline 13}{hline 12}
{col 14}{c |}{col 26} Delta-method
{col 14}{c |}     Margin{col 26}   Std. Err.{col 38}      z{col 46}   P>|z|{col 54}     [95% Con{col 67}f. Interval]
{hline 13}{c +}{hline 11}{hline 11}{hline 9}{hline 8}{hline 13}{hline 12}
{space 9}_at {c |}
{space 10}1  {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2} .7601944{col 26}{space 2} .1219073{col 37}{space 1}    6.24{col 46}{space 3}0.000{col 54}{space 4} .5212605{col 67}{space 3} .9991282
{txt}{space 10}2  {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2} 1.544232{col 26}{space 2} .1366271{col 37}{space 1}   11.30{col 46}{space 3}0.000{col 54}{space 4} 1.276447{col 67}{space 3} 1.812016
{txt}{hline 13}{c BT}{hline 11}{hline 11}{hline 9}{hline 8}{hline 13}{hline 12}
{res}{txt}
{com}. test _b[1._at] = _b[2._at]

{p 0 7}{space 1}{text:( 1)}{space 1} {res}1bn._at - 2._at = 0{p_end}

{txt}{col 12}chi2(  1) ={res}   27.93
{txt}{col 10}Prob > chi2 =  {res}  0.0000
{txt}
{com}. di _b[2._at] - _b[1._at]
{res}.78403717
{txt}
{com}. 
. * Political Terror Scale (ICCPR not ratified)
. quietly: xtgee restrictionCount2 c.pts_stateDep##i.ICCPR_ratif protest_ClarkRegan_logLag1 exconst youthBulgeln v2x_juconln conflictYear gdpPerCapita_z population_z if YEAR>=1994, tol(0.02) force corr(ar 1) family(nbinom) link (nbinom)
{txt}
{com}. sum pts_stateDep

{txt}    Variable {c |}        Obs        Mean    Std. Dev.       Min        Max
{hline 13}{c +}{hline 57}
pts_stateDep {c |}{res}      3,551    2.537595    1.147285          1          5
{txt}
{com}. local mn = r(mean)
{txt}
{com}. local mnsd = r(mean) + r(sd)
{txt}
{com}. margins, at(pts_stateDep = `mn' ICCPR_ratif=0) at(pts_stateDep = `mnsd' ICCPR_ratif=0) atmeans post
{res}
{txt}Adjusted predictions{col 49}Number of obs{col 67}= {res}     2,730
{txt}Model VCE{col 14}: {res}Conventional

{txt}{p2colset 1 14 16 2}{...}
{p2col:Expression}:{space 1}{res:Negative binomial prediction, predict()}{p_end}
{p2colreset}{...}

{txt}{p2colset 1 14 16 2}{...}
{p2col:1._at}:{space 1}{res:{txt:pts_stateDep}{space 4}{txt:=} {space 3}2.537595}{p_end}
{p2colreset}{...}
{txt}{p2colset 1 14 16 2}{...}
{p2col: }{space 2}{res:{txt:ICCPR_ratif}{space 5}{txt:=} {space 10}0}{p_end}
{p2colreset}{...}
{txt}{p2colset 1 14 16 2}{...}
{p2col: }{space 2}{res:{txt:protest_Cl~1}{space 4}{txt:=} {space 3}.9611858 {txt:(mean)}}{p_end}
{p2colreset}{...}
{txt}{p2colset 1 14 16 2}{...}
{p2col: }{space 2}{res:{txt:exconst}{space 9}{txt:=} {space 3}4.940659 {txt:(mean)}}{p_end}
{p2colreset}{...}
{txt}{p2colset 1 14 16 2}{...}
{p2col: }{space 2}{res:{txt:youthBulgeln}{space 4}{txt:=} {space 3}2.888049 {txt:(mean)}}{p_end}
{p2colreset}{...}
{txt}{p2colset 1 14 16 2}{...}
{p2col: }{space 2}{res:{txt:v2x_juconln}{space 5}{txt:=} {space 2}-.7291509 {txt:(mean)}}{p_end}
{p2colreset}{...}
{txt}{p2colset 1 14 16 2}{...}
{p2col: }{space 2}{res:{txt:conflictYear}{space 4}{txt:=} {space 3}.1611722 {txt:(mean)}}{p_end}
{p2colreset}{...}
{txt}{p2colset 1 14 16 2}{...}
{p2col: }{space 2}{res:{txt:gdpPerCapi~z}{space 4}{txt:=} {space 2}-.0923083 {txt:(mean)}}{p_end}
{p2colreset}{...}
{txt}{p2colset 1 14 16 2}{...}
{p2col: }{space 2}{res:{txt:population_z}{space 4}{txt:=} {space 2}-.0075523 {txt:(mean)}}{p_end}
{p2colreset}{...}

{txt}{p2colset 1 14 16 2}{...}
{p2col:2._at}:{space 1}{res:{txt:pts_stateDep}{space 4}{txt:=} {space 4}3.68488}{p_end}
{p2colreset}{...}
{txt}{p2colset 1 14 16 2}{...}
{p2col: }{space 2}{res:{txt:ICCPR_ratif}{space 5}{txt:=} {space 10}0}{p_end}
{p2colreset}{...}
{txt}{p2colset 1 14 16 2}{...}
{p2col: }{space 2}{res:{txt:protest_Cl~1}{space 4}{txt:=} {space 3}.9611858 {txt:(mean)}}{p_end}
{p2colreset}{...}
{txt}{p2colset 1 14 16 2}{...}
{p2col: }{space 2}{res:{txt:exconst}{space 9}{txt:=} {space 3}4.940659 {txt:(mean)}}{p_end}
{p2colreset}{...}
{txt}{p2colset 1 14 16 2}{...}
{p2col: }{space 2}{res:{txt:youthBulgeln}{space 4}{txt:=} {space 3}2.888049 {txt:(mean)}}{p_end}
{p2colreset}{...}
{txt}{p2colset 1 14 16 2}{...}
{p2col: }{space 2}{res:{txt:v2x_juconln}{space 5}{txt:=} {space 2}-.7291509 {txt:(mean)}}{p_end}
{p2colreset}{...}
{txt}{p2colset 1 14 16 2}{...}
{p2col: }{space 2}{res:{txt:conflictYear}{space 4}{txt:=} {space 3}.1611722 {txt:(mean)}}{p_end}
{p2colreset}{...}
{txt}{p2colset 1 14 16 2}{...}
{p2col: }{space 2}{res:{txt:gdpPerCapi~z}{space 4}{txt:=} {space 2}-.0923083 {txt:(mean)}}{p_end}
{p2colreset}{...}
{txt}{p2colset 1 14 16 2}{...}
{p2col: }{space 2}{res:{txt:population_z}{space 4}{txt:=} {space 2}-.0075523 {txt:(mean)}}{p_end}
{p2colreset}{...}

{res}{txt}{hline 13}{c TT}{hline 11}{hline 11}{hline 9}{hline 8}{hline 13}{hline 12}
{col 14}{c |}{col 26} Delta-method
{col 14}{c |}     Margin{col 26}   Std. Err.{col 38}      z{col 46}   P>|z|{col 54}     [95% Con{col 67}f. Interval]
{hline 13}{c +}{hline 11}{hline 11}{hline 9}{hline 8}{hline 13}{hline 12}
{space 9}_at {c |}
{space 10}1  {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2} .8007141{col 26}{space 2} .0986338{col 37}{space 1}    8.12{col 46}{space 3}0.000{col 54}{space 4} .6073954{col 67}{space 3} .9940328
{txt}{space 10}2  {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2} .7814582{col 26}{space 2} .0991691{col 37}{space 1}    7.88{col 46}{space 3}0.000{col 54}{space 4} .5870903{col 67}{space 3}  .975826
{txt}{hline 13}{c BT}{hline 11}{hline 11}{hline 9}{hline 8}{hline 13}{hline 12}
{res}{txt}
{com}. test _b[1._at] = _b[2._at]

{p 0 7}{space 1}{text:( 1)}{space 1} {res}1bn._at - 2._at = 0{p_end}

{txt}{col 12}chi2(  1) ={res}    0.17
{txt}{col 10}Prob > chi2 =  {res}  0.6846
{txt}
{com}. di _b[2._at] - _b[1._at]
{res}-.01925591
{txt}
{com}. 
. * Political Terror Scale (ICCPR ratified)
. quietly: xtgee restrictionCount2 c.pts_stateDep##i.ICCPR_ratif protest_ClarkRegan_logLag1 exconst youthBulgeln v2x_juconln conflictYear gdpPerCapita_z population_z if YEAR>=1994, tol(0.02) force corr(ar 1) family(nbinom) link (nbinom)
{txt}
{com}. sum pts_stateDep

{txt}    Variable {c |}        Obs        Mean    Std. Dev.       Min        Max
{hline 13}{c +}{hline 57}
pts_stateDep {c |}{res}      3,551    2.537595    1.147285          1          5
{txt}
{com}. margins, at(pts_stateDep = `mn' ICCPR_ratif=1) at(pts_stateDep = `mnsd' ICCPR_ratif=1) atmeans post
{res}
{txt}Adjusted predictions{col 49}Number of obs{col 67}= {res}     2,730
{txt}Model VCE{col 14}: {res}Conventional

{txt}{p2colset 1 14 16 2}{...}
{p2col:Expression}:{space 1}{res:Negative binomial prediction, predict()}{p_end}
{p2colreset}{...}

{txt}{p2colset 1 14 16 2}{...}
{p2col:1._at}:{space 1}{res:{txt:pts_stateDep}{space 4}{txt:=} {space 3}2.537595}{p_end}
{p2colreset}{...}
{txt}{p2colset 1 14 16 2}{...}
{p2col: }{space 2}{res:{txt:ICCPR_ratif}{space 5}{txt:=} {space 10}1}{p_end}
{p2colreset}{...}
{txt}{p2colset 1 14 16 2}{...}
{p2col: }{space 2}{res:{txt:protest_Cl~1}{space 4}{txt:=} {space 3}.9611858 {txt:(mean)}}{p_end}
{p2colreset}{...}
{txt}{p2colset 1 14 16 2}{...}
{p2col: }{space 2}{res:{txt:exconst}{space 9}{txt:=} {space 3}4.940659 {txt:(mean)}}{p_end}
{p2colreset}{...}
{txt}{p2colset 1 14 16 2}{...}
{p2col: }{space 2}{res:{txt:youthBulgeln}{space 4}{txt:=} {space 3}2.888049 {txt:(mean)}}{p_end}
{p2colreset}{...}
{txt}{p2colset 1 14 16 2}{...}
{p2col: }{space 2}{res:{txt:v2x_juconln}{space 5}{txt:=} {space 2}-.7291509 {txt:(mean)}}{p_end}
{p2colreset}{...}
{txt}{p2colset 1 14 16 2}{...}
{p2col: }{space 2}{res:{txt:conflictYear}{space 4}{txt:=} {space 3}.1611722 {txt:(mean)}}{p_end}
{p2colreset}{...}
{txt}{p2colset 1 14 16 2}{...}
{p2col: }{space 2}{res:{txt:gdpPerCapi~z}{space 4}{txt:=} {space 2}-.0923083 {txt:(mean)}}{p_end}
{p2colreset}{...}
{txt}{p2colset 1 14 16 2}{...}
{p2col: }{space 2}{res:{txt:population_z}{space 4}{txt:=} {space 2}-.0075523 {txt:(mean)}}{p_end}
{p2colreset}{...}

{txt}{p2colset 1 14 16 2}{...}
{p2col:2._at}:{space 1}{res:{txt:pts_stateDep}{space 4}{txt:=} {space 4}3.68488}{p_end}
{p2colreset}{...}
{txt}{p2colset 1 14 16 2}{...}
{p2col: }{space 2}{res:{txt:ICCPR_ratif}{space 5}{txt:=} {space 10}1}{p_end}
{p2colreset}{...}
{txt}{p2colset 1 14 16 2}{...}
{p2col: }{space 2}{res:{txt:protest_Cl~1}{space 4}{txt:=} {space 3}.9611858 {txt:(mean)}}{p_end}
{p2colreset}{...}
{txt}{p2colset 1 14 16 2}{...}
{p2col: }{space 2}{res:{txt:exconst}{space 9}{txt:=} {space 3}4.940659 {txt:(mean)}}{p_end}
{p2colreset}{...}
{txt}{p2colset 1 14 16 2}{...}
{p2col: }{space 2}{res:{txt:youthBulgeln}{space 4}{txt:=} {space 3}2.888049 {txt:(mean)}}{p_end}
{p2colreset}{...}
{txt}{p2colset 1 14 16 2}{...}
{p2col: }{space 2}{res:{txt:v2x_juconln}{space 5}{txt:=} {space 2}-.7291509 {txt:(mean)}}{p_end}
{p2colreset}{...}
{txt}{p2colset 1 14 16 2}{...}
{p2col: }{space 2}{res:{txt:conflictYear}{space 4}{txt:=} {space 3}.1611722 {txt:(mean)}}{p_end}
{p2colreset}{...}
{txt}{p2colset 1 14 16 2}{...}
{p2col: }{space 2}{res:{txt:gdpPerCapi~z}{space 4}{txt:=} {space 2}-.0923083 {txt:(mean)}}{p_end}
{p2colreset}{...}
{txt}{p2colset 1 14 16 2}{...}
{p2col: }{space 2}{res:{txt:population_z}{space 4}{txt:=} {space 2}-.0075523 {txt:(mean)}}{p_end}
{p2colreset}{...}

{res}{txt}{hline 13}{c TT}{hline 11}{hline 11}{hline 9}{hline 8}{hline 13}{hline 12}
{col 14}{c |}{col 26} Delta-method
{col 14}{c |}     Margin{col 26}   Std. Err.{col 38}      z{col 46}   P>|z|{col 54}     [95% Con{col 67}f. Interval]
{hline 13}{c +}{hline 11}{hline 11}{hline 9}{hline 8}{hline 13}{hline 12}
{space 9}_at {c |}
{space 10}1  {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2}  .721036{col 26}{space 2} .0484614{col 37}{space 1}   14.88{col 46}{space 3}0.000{col 54}{space 4} .6260535{col 67}{space 3} .8160186
{txt}{space 10}2  {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2} .9917845{col 26}{space 2} .0672736{col 37}{space 1}   14.74{col 46}{space 3}0.000{col 54}{space 4} .8599308{col 67}{space 3} 1.123638
{txt}{hline 13}{c BT}{hline 11}{hline 11}{hline 9}{hline 8}{hline 13}{hline 12}
{res}{txt}
{com}. test _b[1._at] = _b[2._at]

{p 0 7}{space 1}{text:( 1)}{space 1} {res}1bn._at - 2._at = 0{p_end}

{txt}{col 12}chi2(  1) ={res}   96.54
{txt}{col 10}Prob > chi2 =  {res}  0.0000
{txt}
{com}. di _b[2._at] - _b[1._at]
{res}.27074845
{txt}
{com}. 
. * Protest events (lag 1 year)
. quietly: xtgee restrictionCount2 c.pts_stateDep##i.ICCPR_ratif protest_ClarkRegan_logLag1 exconst youthBulgeln v2x_juconln conflictYear gdpPerCapita_z population_z if YEAR>=1994, tol(0.02) force corr(ar 1) family(nbinom) link (nbinom)
{txt}
{com}. sum protest_ClarkRegan_logLag1

{txt}    Variable {c |}        Obs        Mean    Std. Dev.       Min        Max
{hline 13}{c +}{hline 57}
protest_Cl~1 {c |}{res}      3,114    .8968614    .8924035          0   4.110874
{txt}
{com}. local mn = r(mean)
{txt}
{com}. local mnsd = r(mean) + r(sd)
{txt}
{com}. margins, at(protest_ClarkRegan_logLag1 = `mn') at(protest_ClarkRegan_logLag1 = `mnsd') atmeans post
{res}
{txt}Adjusted predictions{col 49}Number of obs{col 67}= {res}     2,730
{txt}Model VCE{col 14}: {res}Conventional

{txt}{p2colset 1 14 16 2}{...}
{p2col:Expression}:{space 1}{res:Negative binomial prediction, predict()}{p_end}
{p2colreset}{...}

{txt}{p2colset 1 14 16 2}{...}
{p2col:1._at}:{space 1}{res:{txt:pts_stateDep}{space 4}{txt:=} {space 3}2.572161 {txt:(mean)}}{p_end}
{p2colreset}{...}
{txt}{p2colset 1 14 16 2}{...}
{p2col: }{space 2}{res:{txt:0.ICCPR_ra~f}{space 4}{txt:=} {space 3}.0882784 {txt:(mean)}}{p_end}
{p2colreset}{...}
{txt}{p2colset 1 14 16 2}{...}
{p2col: }{space 2}{res:{txt:1.ICCPR_ra~f}{space 4}{txt:=} {space 3}.9117216 {txt:(mean)}}{p_end}
{p2colreset}{...}
{txt}{p2colset 1 14 16 2}{...}
{p2col: }{space 2}{res:{txt:protest_Cl~1}{space 4}{txt:=} {space 3}.8968614}{p_end}
{p2colreset}{...}
{txt}{p2colset 1 14 16 2}{...}
{p2col: }{space 2}{res:{txt:exconst}{space 9}{txt:=} {space 3}4.940659 {txt:(mean)}}{p_end}
{p2colreset}{...}
{txt}{p2colset 1 14 16 2}{...}
{p2col: }{space 2}{res:{txt:youthBulgeln}{space 4}{txt:=} {space 3}2.888049 {txt:(mean)}}{p_end}
{p2colreset}{...}
{txt}{p2colset 1 14 16 2}{...}
{p2col: }{space 2}{res:{txt:v2x_juconln}{space 5}{txt:=} {space 2}-.7291509 {txt:(mean)}}{p_end}
{p2colreset}{...}
{txt}{p2colset 1 14 16 2}{...}
{p2col: }{space 2}{res:{txt:conflictYear}{space 4}{txt:=} {space 3}.1611722 {txt:(mean)}}{p_end}
{p2colreset}{...}
{txt}{p2colset 1 14 16 2}{...}
{p2col: }{space 2}{res:{txt:gdpPerCapi~z}{space 4}{txt:=} {space 2}-.0923083 {txt:(mean)}}{p_end}
{p2colreset}{...}
{txt}{p2colset 1 14 16 2}{...}
{p2col: }{space 2}{res:{txt:population_z}{space 4}{txt:=} {space 2}-.0075523 {txt:(mean)}}{p_end}
{p2colreset}{...}

{txt}{p2colset 1 14 16 2}{...}
{p2col:2._at}:{space 1}{res:{txt:pts_stateDep}{space 4}{txt:=} {space 3}2.572161 {txt:(mean)}}{p_end}
{p2colreset}{...}
{txt}{p2colset 1 14 16 2}{...}
{p2col: }{space 2}{res:{txt:0.ICCPR_ra~f}{space 4}{txt:=} {space 3}.0882784 {txt:(mean)}}{p_end}
{p2colreset}{...}
{txt}{p2colset 1 14 16 2}{...}
{p2col: }{space 2}{res:{txt:1.ICCPR_ra~f}{space 4}{txt:=} {space 3}.9117216 {txt:(mean)}}{p_end}
{p2colreset}{...}
{txt}{p2colset 1 14 16 2}{...}
{p2col: }{space 2}{res:{txt:protest_Cl~1}{space 4}{txt:=} {space 3}1.789265}{p_end}
{p2colreset}{...}
{txt}{p2colset 1 14 16 2}{...}
{p2col: }{space 2}{res:{txt:exconst}{space 9}{txt:=} {space 3}4.940659 {txt:(mean)}}{p_end}
{p2colreset}{...}
{txt}{p2colset 1 14 16 2}{...}
{p2col: }{space 2}{res:{txt:youthBulgeln}{space 4}{txt:=} {space 3}2.888049 {txt:(mean)}}{p_end}
{p2colreset}{...}
{txt}{p2colset 1 14 16 2}{...}
{p2col: }{space 2}{res:{txt:v2x_juconln}{space 5}{txt:=} {space 2}-.7291509 {txt:(mean)}}{p_end}
{p2colreset}{...}
{txt}{p2colset 1 14 16 2}{...}
{p2col: }{space 2}{res:{txt:conflictYear}{space 4}{txt:=} {space 3}.1611722 {txt:(mean)}}{p_end}
{p2colreset}{...}
{txt}{p2colset 1 14 16 2}{...}
{p2col: }{space 2}{res:{txt:gdpPerCapi~z}{space 4}{txt:=} {space 2}-.0923083 {txt:(mean)}}{p_end}
{p2colreset}{...}
{txt}{p2colset 1 14 16 2}{...}
{p2col: }{space 2}{res:{txt:population_z}{space 4}{txt:=} {space 2}-.0075523 {txt:(mean)}}{p_end}
{p2colreset}{...}

{res}{txt}{hline 13}{c TT}{hline 11}{hline 11}{hline 9}{hline 8}{hline 13}{hline 12}
{col 14}{c |}{col 26} Delta-method
{col 14}{c |}     Margin{col 26}   Std. Err.{col 38}      z{col 46}   P>|z|{col 54}     [95% Con{col 67}f. Interval]
{hline 13}{c +}{hline 11}{hline 11}{hline 9}{hline 8}{hline 13}{hline 12}
{space 9}_at {c |}
{space 10}1  {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2} .7320017{col 26}{space 2} .0481735{col 37}{space 1}   15.20{col 46}{space 3}0.000{col 54}{space 4} .6375833{col 67}{space 3} .8264201
{txt}{space 10}2  {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2} .7539793{col 26}{space 2} .0495465{col 37}{space 1}   15.22{col 46}{space 3}0.000{col 54}{space 4} .6568699{col 67}{space 3} .8510887
{txt}{hline 13}{c BT}{hline 11}{hline 11}{hline 9}{hline 8}{hline 13}{hline 12}
{res}{txt}
{com}. test _b[1._at] = _b[2._at]

{p 0 7}{space 1}{text:( 1)}{space 1} {res}1bn._at - 2._at = 0{p_end}

{txt}{col 12}chi2(  1) ={res}    8.40
{txt}{col 10}Prob > chi2 =  {res}  0.0038
{txt}
{com}. di _b[2._at] - _b[1._at]
{res}.02197761
{txt}
{com}. 
. * Executive constraints
. quietly: xtgee restrictionCount2 c.pts_stateDep##i.ICCPR_ratif protest_ClarkRegan_logLag1 exconst youthBulgeln v2x_juconln conflictYear gdpPerCapita_z population_z if YEAR>=1994, tol(0.02) force corr(ar 1) family(nbinom) link (nbinom)
{txt}
{com}. sum exconst

{txt}    Variable {c |}        Obs        Mean    Std. Dev.       Min        Max
{hline 13}{c +}{hline 57}
{space 5}exconst {c |}{res}      3,425    4.702482    2.173668          1          7
{txt}
{com}. local mn = r(mean)
{txt}
{com}. local mnsd = r(mean) + r(sd)
{txt}
{com}. margins, at(exconst = `mn') at(exconst = `mnsd') atmeans post
{res}
{txt}Adjusted predictions{col 49}Number of obs{col 67}= {res}     2,730
{txt}Model VCE{col 14}: {res}Conventional

{txt}{p2colset 1 14 16 2}{...}
{p2col:Expression}:{space 1}{res:Negative binomial prediction, predict()}{p_end}
{p2colreset}{...}

{txt}{p2colset 1 14 16 2}{...}
{p2col:1._at}:{space 1}{res:{txt:pts_stateDep}{space 4}{txt:=} {space 3}2.572161 {txt:(mean)}}{p_end}
{p2colreset}{...}
{txt}{p2colset 1 14 16 2}{...}
{p2col: }{space 2}{res:{txt:0.ICCPR_ra~f}{space 4}{txt:=} {space 3}.0882784 {txt:(mean)}}{p_end}
{p2colreset}{...}
{txt}{p2colset 1 14 16 2}{...}
{p2col: }{space 2}{res:{txt:1.ICCPR_ra~f}{space 4}{txt:=} {space 3}.9117216 {txt:(mean)}}{p_end}
{p2colreset}{...}
{txt}{p2colset 1 14 16 2}{...}
{p2col: }{space 2}{res:{txt:protest_Cl~1}{space 4}{txt:=} {space 3}.9611858 {txt:(mean)}}{p_end}
{p2colreset}{...}
{txt}{p2colset 1 14 16 2}{...}
{p2col: }{space 2}{res:{txt:exconst}{space 9}{txt:=} {space 3}4.702482}{p_end}
{p2colreset}{...}
{txt}{p2colset 1 14 16 2}{...}
{p2col: }{space 2}{res:{txt:youthBulgeln}{space 4}{txt:=} {space 3}2.888049 {txt:(mean)}}{p_end}
{p2colreset}{...}
{txt}{p2colset 1 14 16 2}{...}
{p2col: }{space 2}{res:{txt:v2x_juconln}{space 5}{txt:=} {space 2}-.7291509 {txt:(mean)}}{p_end}
{p2colreset}{...}
{txt}{p2colset 1 14 16 2}{...}
{p2col: }{space 2}{res:{txt:conflictYear}{space 4}{txt:=} {space 3}.1611722 {txt:(mean)}}{p_end}
{p2colreset}{...}
{txt}{p2colset 1 14 16 2}{...}
{p2col: }{space 2}{res:{txt:gdpPerCapi~z}{space 4}{txt:=} {space 2}-.0923083 {txt:(mean)}}{p_end}
{p2colreset}{...}
{txt}{p2colset 1 14 16 2}{...}
{p2col: }{space 2}{res:{txt:population_z}{space 4}{txt:=} {space 2}-.0075523 {txt:(mean)}}{p_end}
{p2colreset}{...}

{txt}{p2colset 1 14 16 2}{...}
{p2col:2._at}:{space 1}{res:{txt:pts_stateDep}{space 4}{txt:=} {space 3}2.572161 {txt:(mean)}}{p_end}
{p2colreset}{...}
{txt}{p2colset 1 14 16 2}{...}
{p2col: }{space 2}{res:{txt:0.ICCPR_ra~f}{space 4}{txt:=} {space 3}.0882784 {txt:(mean)}}{p_end}
{p2colreset}{...}
{txt}{p2colset 1 14 16 2}{...}
{p2col: }{space 2}{res:{txt:1.ICCPR_ra~f}{space 4}{txt:=} {space 3}.9117216 {txt:(mean)}}{p_end}
{p2colreset}{...}
{txt}{p2colset 1 14 16 2}{...}
{p2col: }{space 2}{res:{txt:protest_Cl~1}{space 4}{txt:=} {space 3}.9611858 {txt:(mean)}}{p_end}
{p2colreset}{...}
{txt}{p2colset 1 14 16 2}{...}
{p2col: }{space 2}{res:{txt:exconst}{space 9}{txt:=} {space 4}6.87615}{p_end}
{p2colreset}{...}
{txt}{p2colset 1 14 16 2}{...}
{p2col: }{space 2}{res:{txt:youthBulgeln}{space 4}{txt:=} {space 3}2.888049 {txt:(mean)}}{p_end}
{p2colreset}{...}
{txt}{p2colset 1 14 16 2}{...}
{p2col: }{space 2}{res:{txt:v2x_juconln}{space 5}{txt:=} {space 2}-.7291509 {txt:(mean)}}{p_end}
{p2colreset}{...}
{txt}{p2colset 1 14 16 2}{...}
{p2col: }{space 2}{res:{txt:conflictYear}{space 4}{txt:=} {space 3}.1611722 {txt:(mean)}}{p_end}
{p2colreset}{...}
{txt}{p2colset 1 14 16 2}{...}
{p2col: }{space 2}{res:{txt:gdpPerCapi~z}{space 4}{txt:=} {space 2}-.0923083 {txt:(mean)}}{p_end}
{p2colreset}{...}
{txt}{p2colset 1 14 16 2}{...}
{p2col: }{space 2}{res:{txt:population_z}{space 4}{txt:=} {space 2}-.0075523 {txt:(mean)}}{p_end}
{p2colreset}{...}

{res}{txt}{hline 13}{c TT}{hline 11}{hline 11}{hline 9}{hline 8}{hline 13}{hline 12}
{col 14}{c |}{col 26} Delta-method
{col 14}{c |}     Margin{col 26}   Std. Err.{col 38}      z{col 46}   P>|z|{col 54}     [95% Con{col 67}f. Interval]
{hline 13}{c +}{hline 11}{hline 11}{hline 9}{hline 8}{hline 13}{hline 12}
{space 9}_at {c |}
{space 10}1  {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2} .7536255{col 26}{space 2} .0493021{col 37}{space 1}   15.29{col 46}{space 3}0.000{col 54}{space 4} .6569952{col 67}{space 3} .8502558
{txt}{space 10}2  {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2} .5952205{col 26}{space 2} .0434566{col 37}{space 1}   13.70{col 46}{space 3}0.000{col 54}{space 4} .5100471{col 67}{space 3} .6803939
{txt}{hline 13}{c BT}{hline 11}{hline 11}{hline 9}{hline 8}{hline 13}{hline 12}
{res}{txt}
{com}. test _b[1._at] = _b[2._at]

{p 0 7}{space 1}{text:( 1)}{space 1} {res}1bn._at - 2._at = 0{p_end}

{txt}{col 12}chi2(  1) ={res}   75.73
{txt}{col 10}Prob > chi2 =  {res}  0.0000
{txt}
{com}. di _b[2._at] - _b[1._at]
{res}-.15840494
{txt}
{com}. 
. 
. * Youth bulge
. quietly: xtgee restrictionCount2 c.pts_stateDep##i.ICCPR_ratif protest_ClarkRegan_logLag1 exconst youthBulgeln v2x_juconln conflictYear gdpPerCapita_z population_z if YEAR>=1994, tol(0.02) force corr(ar 1) family(nbinom) link (nbinom)
{txt}
{com}. sum youthBulgeln

{txt}    Variable {c |}        Obs        Mean    Std. Dev.       Min        Max
{hline 13}{c +}{hline 57}
youthBulgeln {c |}{res}      3,505    2.884457    .1826742   2.277053   3.283844
{txt}
{com}. local mn = r(mean)
{txt}
{com}. local mnsd = r(mean) + r(sd)
{txt}
{com}. margins, at(youthBulgeln = `mn') at(youthBulgeln = `mnsd') atmeans post
{res}
{txt}Adjusted predictions{col 49}Number of obs{col 67}= {res}     2,730
{txt}Model VCE{col 14}: {res}Conventional

{txt}{p2colset 1 14 16 2}{...}
{p2col:Expression}:{space 1}{res:Negative binomial prediction, predict()}{p_end}
{p2colreset}{...}

{txt}{p2colset 1 14 16 2}{...}
{p2col:1._at}:{space 1}{res:{txt:pts_stateDep}{space 4}{txt:=} {space 3}2.572161 {txt:(mean)}}{p_end}
{p2colreset}{...}
{txt}{p2colset 1 14 16 2}{...}
{p2col: }{space 2}{res:{txt:0.ICCPR_ra~f}{space 4}{txt:=} {space 3}.0882784 {txt:(mean)}}{p_end}
{p2colreset}{...}
{txt}{p2colset 1 14 16 2}{...}
{p2col: }{space 2}{res:{txt:1.ICCPR_ra~f}{space 4}{txt:=} {space 3}.9117216 {txt:(mean)}}{p_end}
{p2colreset}{...}
{txt}{p2colset 1 14 16 2}{...}
{p2col: }{space 2}{res:{txt:protest_Cl~1}{space 4}{txt:=} {space 3}.9611858 {txt:(mean)}}{p_end}
{p2colreset}{...}
{txt}{p2colset 1 14 16 2}{...}
{p2col: }{space 2}{res:{txt:exconst}{space 9}{txt:=} {space 3}4.940659 {txt:(mean)}}{p_end}
{p2colreset}{...}
{txt}{p2colset 1 14 16 2}{...}
{p2col: }{space 2}{res:{txt:youthBulgeln}{space 4}{txt:=} {space 3}2.884457}{p_end}
{p2colreset}{...}
{txt}{p2colset 1 14 16 2}{...}
{p2col: }{space 2}{res:{txt:v2x_juconln}{space 5}{txt:=} {space 2}-.7291509 {txt:(mean)}}{p_end}
{p2colreset}{...}
{txt}{p2colset 1 14 16 2}{...}
{p2col: }{space 2}{res:{txt:conflictYear}{space 4}{txt:=} {space 3}.1611722 {txt:(mean)}}{p_end}
{p2colreset}{...}
{txt}{p2colset 1 14 16 2}{...}
{p2col: }{space 2}{res:{txt:gdpPerCapi~z}{space 4}{txt:=} {space 2}-.0923083 {txt:(mean)}}{p_end}
{p2colreset}{...}
{txt}{p2colset 1 14 16 2}{...}
{p2col: }{space 2}{res:{txt:population_z}{space 4}{txt:=} {space 2}-.0075523 {txt:(mean)}}{p_end}
{p2colreset}{...}

{txt}{p2colset 1 14 16 2}{...}
{p2col:2._at}:{space 1}{res:{txt:pts_stateDep}{space 4}{txt:=} {space 3}2.572161 {txt:(mean)}}{p_end}
{p2colreset}{...}
{txt}{p2colset 1 14 16 2}{...}
{p2col: }{space 2}{res:{txt:0.ICCPR_ra~f}{space 4}{txt:=} {space 3}.0882784 {txt:(mean)}}{p_end}
{p2colreset}{...}
{txt}{p2colset 1 14 16 2}{...}
{p2col: }{space 2}{res:{txt:1.ICCPR_ra~f}{space 4}{txt:=} {space 3}.9117216 {txt:(mean)}}{p_end}
{p2colreset}{...}
{txt}{p2colset 1 14 16 2}{...}
{p2col: }{space 2}{res:{txt:protest_Cl~1}{space 4}{txt:=} {space 3}.9611858 {txt:(mean)}}{p_end}
{p2colreset}{...}
{txt}{p2colset 1 14 16 2}{...}
{p2col: }{space 2}{res:{txt:exconst}{space 9}{txt:=} {space 3}4.940659 {txt:(mean)}}{p_end}
{p2colreset}{...}
{txt}{p2colset 1 14 16 2}{...}
{p2col: }{space 2}{res:{txt:youthBulgeln}{space 4}{txt:=} {space 3}3.067132}{p_end}
{p2colreset}{...}
{txt}{p2colset 1 14 16 2}{...}
{p2col: }{space 2}{res:{txt:v2x_juconln}{space 5}{txt:=} {space 2}-.7291509 {txt:(mean)}}{p_end}
{p2colreset}{...}
{txt}{p2colset 1 14 16 2}{...}
{p2col: }{space 2}{res:{txt:conflictYear}{space 4}{txt:=} {space 3}.1611722 {txt:(mean)}}{p_end}
{p2colreset}{...}
{txt}{p2colset 1 14 16 2}{...}
{p2col: }{space 2}{res:{txt:gdpPerCapi~z}{space 4}{txt:=} {space 2}-.0923083 {txt:(mean)}}{p_end}
{p2colreset}{...}
{txt}{p2colset 1 14 16 2}{...}
{p2col: }{space 2}{res:{txt:population_z}{space 4}{txt:=} {space 2}-.0075523 {txt:(mean)}}{p_end}
{p2colreset}{...}

{res}{txt}{hline 13}{c TT}{hline 11}{hline 11}{hline 9}{hline 8}{hline 13}{hline 12}
{col 14}{c |}{col 26} Delta-method
{col 14}{c |}     Margin{col 26}   Std. Err.{col 38}      z{col 46}   P>|z|{col 54}     [95% Con{col 67}f. Interval]
{hline 13}{c +}{hline 11}{hline 11}{hline 9}{hline 8}{hline 13}{hline 12}
{space 9}_at {c |}
{space 10}1  {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2} .7302833{col 26}{space 2} .0480921{col 37}{space 1}   15.19{col 46}{space 3}0.000{col 54}{space 4} .6360245{col 67}{space 3} .8245421
{txt}{space 10}2  {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2} .9277318{col 26}{space 2} .0649008{col 37}{space 1}   14.29{col 46}{space 3}0.000{col 54}{space 4} .8005286{col 67}{space 3} 1.054935
{txt}{hline 13}{c BT}{hline 11}{hline 11}{hline 9}{hline 8}{hline 13}{hline 12}
{res}{txt}
{com}. test _b[1._at] = _b[2._at]

{p 0 7}{space 1}{text:( 1)}{space 1} {res}1bn._at - 2._at = 0{p_end}

{txt}{col 12}chi2(  1) ={res}   34.40
{txt}{col 10}Prob > chi2 =  {res}  0.0000
{txt}
{com}. di _b[2._at] - _b[1._at]
{res}.1974485
{txt}
{com}. 
. * Independent judiciary
. quietly: xtgee restrictionCount2 c.pts_stateDep##i.ICCPR_ratif protest_ClarkRegan_logLag1 exconst youthBulgeln v2x_juconln conflictYear gdpPerCapita_z population_z if YEAR>=1994, tol(0.02) force corr(ar 1) family(nbinom) link (nbinom)
{txt}
{com}. sum v2x_juconln

{txt}    Variable {c |}        Obs        Mean    Std. Dev.       Min        Max
{hline 13}{c +}{hline 57}
{space 1}v2x_juconln {c |}{res}      3,438   -.8317449    .9534765  -5.444333  -.0091844
{txt}
{com}. local mn = r(mean)
{txt}
{com}. local mnsd = r(mean) + r(sd)
{txt}
{com}. margins, at(v2x_juconln = `mn') at(v2x_juconln = `mnsd') atmeans post
{res}
{txt}Adjusted predictions{col 49}Number of obs{col 67}= {res}     2,730
{txt}Model VCE{col 14}: {res}Conventional

{txt}{p2colset 1 14 16 2}{...}
{p2col:Expression}:{space 1}{res:Negative binomial prediction, predict()}{p_end}
{p2colreset}{...}

{txt}{p2colset 1 14 16 2}{...}
{p2col:1._at}:{space 1}{res:{txt:pts_stateDep}{space 4}{txt:=} {space 3}2.572161 {txt:(mean)}}{p_end}
{p2colreset}{...}
{txt}{p2colset 1 14 16 2}{...}
{p2col: }{space 2}{res:{txt:0.ICCPR_ra~f}{space 4}{txt:=} {space 3}.0882784 {txt:(mean)}}{p_end}
{p2colreset}{...}
{txt}{p2colset 1 14 16 2}{...}
{p2col: }{space 2}{res:{txt:1.ICCPR_ra~f}{space 4}{txt:=} {space 3}.9117216 {txt:(mean)}}{p_end}
{p2colreset}{...}
{txt}{p2colset 1 14 16 2}{...}
{p2col: }{space 2}{res:{txt:protest_Cl~1}{space 4}{txt:=} {space 3}.9611858 {txt:(mean)}}{p_end}
{p2colreset}{...}
{txt}{p2colset 1 14 16 2}{...}
{p2col: }{space 2}{res:{txt:exconst}{space 9}{txt:=} {space 3}4.940659 {txt:(mean)}}{p_end}
{p2colreset}{...}
{txt}{p2colset 1 14 16 2}{...}
{p2col: }{space 2}{res:{txt:youthBulgeln}{space 4}{txt:=} {space 3}2.888049 {txt:(mean)}}{p_end}
{p2colreset}{...}
{txt}{p2colset 1 14 16 2}{...}
{p2col: }{space 2}{res:{txt:v2x_juconln}{space 5}{txt:=} {space 2}-.8317449}{p_end}
{p2colreset}{...}
{txt}{p2colset 1 14 16 2}{...}
{p2col: }{space 2}{res:{txt:conflictYear}{space 4}{txt:=} {space 3}.1611722 {txt:(mean)}}{p_end}
{p2colreset}{...}
{txt}{p2colset 1 14 16 2}{...}
{p2col: }{space 2}{res:{txt:gdpPerCapi~z}{space 4}{txt:=} {space 2}-.0923083 {txt:(mean)}}{p_end}
{p2colreset}{...}
{txt}{p2colset 1 14 16 2}{...}
{p2col: }{space 2}{res:{txt:population_z}{space 4}{txt:=} {space 2}-.0075523 {txt:(mean)}}{p_end}
{p2colreset}{...}

{txt}{p2colset 1 14 16 2}{...}
{p2col:2._at}:{space 1}{res:{txt:pts_stateDep}{space 4}{txt:=} {space 3}2.572161 {txt:(mean)}}{p_end}
{p2colreset}{...}
{txt}{p2colset 1 14 16 2}{...}
{p2col: }{space 2}{res:{txt:0.ICCPR_ra~f}{space 4}{txt:=} {space 3}.0882784 {txt:(mean)}}{p_end}
{p2colreset}{...}
{txt}{p2colset 1 14 16 2}{...}
{p2col: }{space 2}{res:{txt:1.ICCPR_ra~f}{space 4}{txt:=} {space 3}.9117216 {txt:(mean)}}{p_end}
{p2colreset}{...}
{txt}{p2colset 1 14 16 2}{...}
{p2col: }{space 2}{res:{txt:protest_Cl~1}{space 4}{txt:=} {space 3}.9611858 {txt:(mean)}}{p_end}
{p2colreset}{...}
{txt}{p2colset 1 14 16 2}{...}
{p2col: }{space 2}{res:{txt:exconst}{space 9}{txt:=} {space 3}4.940659 {txt:(mean)}}{p_end}
{p2colreset}{...}
{txt}{p2colset 1 14 16 2}{...}
{p2col: }{space 2}{res:{txt:youthBulgeln}{space 4}{txt:=} {space 3}2.888049 {txt:(mean)}}{p_end}
{p2colreset}{...}
{txt}{p2colset 1 14 16 2}{...}
{p2col: }{space 2}{res:{txt:v2x_juconln}{space 5}{txt:=} {space 3}.1217316}{p_end}
{p2colreset}{...}
{txt}{p2colset 1 14 16 2}{...}
{p2col: }{space 2}{res:{txt:conflictYear}{space 4}{txt:=} {space 3}.1611722 {txt:(mean)}}{p_end}
{p2colreset}{...}
{txt}{p2colset 1 14 16 2}{...}
{p2col: }{space 2}{res:{txt:gdpPerCapi~z}{space 4}{txt:=} {space 2}-.0923083 {txt:(mean)}}{p_end}
{p2colreset}{...}
{txt}{p2colset 1 14 16 2}{...}
{p2col: }{space 2}{res:{txt:population_z}{space 4}{txt:=} {space 2}-.0075523 {txt:(mean)}}{p_end}
{p2colreset}{...}

{res}{txt}{hline 13}{c TT}{hline 11}{hline 11}{hline 9}{hline 8}{hline 13}{hline 12}
{col 14}{c |}{col 26} Delta-method
{col 14}{c |}     Margin{col 26}   Std. Err.{col 38}      z{col 46}   P>|z|{col 54}     [95% Con{col 67}f. Interval]
{hline 13}{c +}{hline 11}{hline 11}{hline 9}{hline 8}{hline 13}{hline 12}
{space 9}_at {c |}
{space 10}1  {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2} .7471234{col 26}{space 2} .0489234{col 37}{space 1}   15.27{col 46}{space 3}0.000{col 54}{space 4} .6512354{col 67}{space 3} .8430115
{txt}{space 10}2  {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2} .6333449{col 26}{space 2} .0435398{col 37}{space 1}   14.55{col 46}{space 3}0.000{col 54}{space 4} .5480085{col 67}{space 3} .7186814
{txt}{hline 13}{c BT}{hline 11}{hline 11}{hline 9}{hline 8}{hline 13}{hline 12}
{res}{txt}
{com}. test _b[1._at] = _b[2._at]

{p 0 7}{space 1}{text:( 1)}{space 1} {res}1bn._at - 2._at = 0{p_end}

{txt}{col 12}chi2(  1) ={res}  164.29
{txt}{col 10}Prob > chi2 =  {res}  0.0000
{txt}
{com}. di _b[2._at] - _b[1._at]
{res}-.11377851
{txt}
{com}. 
. * Conflict year
. quietly: xtgee restrictionCount2 c.pts_stateDep##i.ICCPR_ratif protest_ClarkRegan_logLag1 exconst youthBulgeln v2x_juconln conflictYear gdpPerCapita_z population_z if YEAR>=1994, tol(0.02) force corr(ar 1) family(nbinom) link (nbinom)
{txt}
{com}. sum conflictYear

{txt}    Variable {c |}        Obs        Mean    Std. Dev.       Min        Max
{hline 13}{c +}{hline 57}
conflictYear {c |}{res}      3,571    .1562588    .3631513          0          1
{txt}
{com}. local mn = r(mean)
{txt}
{com}. local mnsd = r(mean) + r(sd)
{txt}
{com}. margins, at(conflictYear = `mn') at(conflictYear = `mnsd') atmeans post
{res}
{txt}Adjusted predictions{col 49}Number of obs{col 67}= {res}     2,730
{txt}Model VCE{col 14}: {res}Conventional

{txt}{p2colset 1 14 16 2}{...}
{p2col:Expression}:{space 1}{res:Negative binomial prediction, predict()}{p_end}
{p2colreset}{...}

{txt}{p2colset 1 14 16 2}{...}
{p2col:1._at}:{space 1}{res:{txt:pts_stateDep}{space 4}{txt:=} {space 3}2.572161 {txt:(mean)}}{p_end}
{p2colreset}{...}
{txt}{p2colset 1 14 16 2}{...}
{p2col: }{space 2}{res:{txt:0.ICCPR_ra~f}{space 4}{txt:=} {space 3}.0882784 {txt:(mean)}}{p_end}
{p2colreset}{...}
{txt}{p2colset 1 14 16 2}{...}
{p2col: }{space 2}{res:{txt:1.ICCPR_ra~f}{space 4}{txt:=} {space 3}.9117216 {txt:(mean)}}{p_end}
{p2colreset}{...}
{txt}{p2colset 1 14 16 2}{...}
{p2col: }{space 2}{res:{txt:protest_Cl~1}{space 4}{txt:=} {space 3}.9611858 {txt:(mean)}}{p_end}
{p2colreset}{...}
{txt}{p2colset 1 14 16 2}{...}
{p2col: }{space 2}{res:{txt:exconst}{space 9}{txt:=} {space 3}4.940659 {txt:(mean)}}{p_end}
{p2colreset}{...}
{txt}{p2colset 1 14 16 2}{...}
{p2col: }{space 2}{res:{txt:youthBulgeln}{space 4}{txt:=} {space 3}2.888049 {txt:(mean)}}{p_end}
{p2colreset}{...}
{txt}{p2colset 1 14 16 2}{...}
{p2col: }{space 2}{res:{txt:v2x_juconln}{space 5}{txt:=} {space 2}-.7291509 {txt:(mean)}}{p_end}
{p2colreset}{...}
{txt}{p2colset 1 14 16 2}{...}
{p2col: }{space 2}{res:{txt:conflictYear}{space 4}{txt:=} {space 3}.1562588}{p_end}
{p2colreset}{...}
{txt}{p2colset 1 14 16 2}{...}
{p2col: }{space 2}{res:{txt:gdpPerCapi~z}{space 4}{txt:=} {space 2}-.0923083 {txt:(mean)}}{p_end}
{p2colreset}{...}
{txt}{p2colset 1 14 16 2}{...}
{p2col: }{space 2}{res:{txt:population_z}{space 4}{txt:=} {space 2}-.0075523 {txt:(mean)}}{p_end}
{p2colreset}{...}

{txt}{p2colset 1 14 16 2}{...}
{p2col:2._at}:{space 1}{res:{txt:pts_stateDep}{space 4}{txt:=} {space 3}2.572161 {txt:(mean)}}{p_end}
{p2colreset}{...}
{txt}{p2colset 1 14 16 2}{...}
{p2col: }{space 2}{res:{txt:0.ICCPR_ra~f}{space 4}{txt:=} {space 3}.0882784 {txt:(mean)}}{p_end}
{p2colreset}{...}
{txt}{p2colset 1 14 16 2}{...}
{p2col: }{space 2}{res:{txt:1.ICCPR_ra~f}{space 4}{txt:=} {space 3}.9117216 {txt:(mean)}}{p_end}
{p2colreset}{...}
{txt}{p2colset 1 14 16 2}{...}
{p2col: }{space 2}{res:{txt:protest_Cl~1}{space 4}{txt:=} {space 3}.9611858 {txt:(mean)}}{p_end}
{p2colreset}{...}
{txt}{p2colset 1 14 16 2}{...}
{p2col: }{space 2}{res:{txt:exconst}{space 9}{txt:=} {space 3}4.940659 {txt:(mean)}}{p_end}
{p2colreset}{...}
{txt}{p2colset 1 14 16 2}{...}
{p2col: }{space 2}{res:{txt:youthBulgeln}{space 4}{txt:=} {space 3}2.888049 {txt:(mean)}}{p_end}
{p2colreset}{...}
{txt}{p2colset 1 14 16 2}{...}
{p2col: }{space 2}{res:{txt:v2x_juconln}{space 5}{txt:=} {space 2}-.7291509 {txt:(mean)}}{p_end}
{p2colreset}{...}
{txt}{p2colset 1 14 16 2}{...}
{p2col: }{space 2}{res:{txt:conflictYear}{space 4}{txt:=} {space 3}.5194101}{p_end}
{p2colreset}{...}
{txt}{p2colset 1 14 16 2}{...}
{p2col: }{space 2}{res:{txt:gdpPerCapi~z}{space 4}{txt:=} {space 2}-.0923083 {txt:(mean)}}{p_end}
{p2colreset}{...}
{txt}{p2colset 1 14 16 2}{...}
{p2col: }{space 2}{res:{txt:population_z}{space 4}{txt:=} {space 2}-.0075523 {txt:(mean)}}{p_end}
{p2colreset}{...}

{res}{txt}{hline 13}{c TT}{hline 11}{hline 11}{hline 9}{hline 8}{hline 13}{hline 12}
{col 14}{c |}{col 26} Delta-method
{col 14}{c |}     Margin{col 26}   Std. Err.{col 38}      z{col 46}   P>|z|{col 54}     [95% Con{col 67}f. Interval]
{hline 13}{c +}{hline 11}{hline 11}{hline 9}{hline 8}{hline 13}{hline 12}
{space 9}_at {c |}
{space 10}1  {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2} .7332701{col 26}{space 2} .0482215{col 37}{space 1}   15.21{col 46}{space 3}0.000{col 54}{space 4} .6387577{col 67}{space 3} .8277826
{txt}{space 10}2  {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2} .7547642{col 26}{space 2}  .049748{col 37}{space 1}   15.17{col 46}{space 3}0.000{col 54}{space 4} .6572599{col 67}{space 3} .8522685
{txt}{hline 13}{c BT}{hline 11}{hline 11}{hline 9}{hline 8}{hline 13}{hline 12}
{res}{txt}
{com}. test _b[1._at] = _b[2._at]

{p 0 7}{space 1}{text:( 1)}{space 1} {res}1bn._at - 2._at = 0{p_end}

{txt}{col 12}chi2(  1) ={res}    6.94
{txt}{col 10}Prob > chi2 =  {res}  0.0084
{txt}
{com}. di _b[2._at] - _b[1._at]
{res}.02149406
{txt}
{com}. 
. * GDP (stand.)
. quietly: xtgee restrictionCount2 c.pts_stateDep##i.ICCPR_ratif protest_ClarkRegan_logLag1 exconst youthBulgeln v2x_juconln conflictYear gdpPerCapita_z population_z if YEAR>=1994, tol(0.02) force corr(ar 1) family(nbinom) link (nbinom)
{txt}
{com}. sum gdpPerCapita_z

{txt}    Variable {c |}        Obs        Mean    Std. Dev.       Min        Max
{hline 13}{c +}{hline 57}
gdpPerCapi~z {c |}{res}      3,480   -9.44e-11           1  -2.285015    2.31218
{txt}
{com}. local mn = r(mean)
{txt}
{com}. local mnsd = r(mean) + r(sd)
{txt}
{com}. margins, at(gdpPerCapita_z = `mn') at(gdpPerCapita_z = `mnsd') atmeans post
{res}
{txt}Adjusted predictions{col 49}Number of obs{col 67}= {res}     2,730
{txt}Model VCE{col 14}: {res}Conventional

{txt}{p2colset 1 14 16 2}{...}
{p2col:Expression}:{space 1}{res:Negative binomial prediction, predict()}{p_end}
{p2colreset}{...}

{txt}{p2colset 1 14 16 2}{...}
{p2col:1._at}:{space 1}{res:{txt:pts_stateDep}{space 4}{txt:=} {space 3}2.572161 {txt:(mean)}}{p_end}
{p2colreset}{...}
{txt}{p2colset 1 14 16 2}{...}
{p2col: }{space 2}{res:{txt:0.ICCPR_ra~f}{space 4}{txt:=} {space 3}.0882784 {txt:(mean)}}{p_end}
{p2colreset}{...}
{txt}{p2colset 1 14 16 2}{...}
{p2col: }{space 2}{res:{txt:1.ICCPR_ra~f}{space 4}{txt:=} {space 3}.9117216 {txt:(mean)}}{p_end}
{p2colreset}{...}
{txt}{p2colset 1 14 16 2}{...}
{p2col: }{space 2}{res:{txt:protest_Cl~1}{space 4}{txt:=} {space 3}.9611858 {txt:(mean)}}{p_end}
{p2colreset}{...}
{txt}{p2colset 1 14 16 2}{...}
{p2col: }{space 2}{res:{txt:exconst}{space 9}{txt:=} {space 3}4.940659 {txt:(mean)}}{p_end}
{p2colreset}{...}
{txt}{p2colset 1 14 16 2}{...}
{p2col: }{space 2}{res:{txt:youthBulgeln}{space 4}{txt:=} {space 3}2.888049 {txt:(mean)}}{p_end}
{p2colreset}{...}
{txt}{p2colset 1 14 16 2}{...}
{p2col: }{space 2}{res:{txt:v2x_juconln}{space 5}{txt:=} {space 2}-.7291509 {txt:(mean)}}{p_end}
{p2colreset}{...}
{txt}{p2colset 1 14 16 2}{...}
{p2col: }{space 2}{res:{txt:conflictYear}{space 4}{txt:=} {space 3}.1611722 {txt:(mean)}}{p_end}
{p2colreset}{...}
{txt}{p2colset 1 14 16 2}{...}
{p2col: }{space 2}{res:{txt:gdpPerCapi~z}{space 4}{txt:=} {space 2}-9.44e-11}{p_end}
{p2colreset}{...}
{txt}{p2colset 1 14 16 2}{...}
{p2col: }{space 2}{res:{txt:population_z}{space 4}{txt:=} {space 2}-.0075523 {txt:(mean)}}{p_end}
{p2colreset}{...}

{txt}{p2colset 1 14 16 2}{...}
{p2col:2._at}:{space 1}{res:{txt:pts_stateDep}{space 4}{txt:=} {space 3}2.572161 {txt:(mean)}}{p_end}
{p2colreset}{...}
{txt}{p2colset 1 14 16 2}{...}
{p2col: }{space 2}{res:{txt:0.ICCPR_ra~f}{space 4}{txt:=} {space 3}.0882784 {txt:(mean)}}{p_end}
{p2colreset}{...}
{txt}{p2colset 1 14 16 2}{...}
{p2col: }{space 2}{res:{txt:1.ICCPR_ra~f}{space 4}{txt:=} {space 3}.9117216 {txt:(mean)}}{p_end}
{p2colreset}{...}
{txt}{p2colset 1 14 16 2}{...}
{p2col: }{space 2}{res:{txt:protest_Cl~1}{space 4}{txt:=} {space 3}.9611858 {txt:(mean)}}{p_end}
{p2colreset}{...}
{txt}{p2colset 1 14 16 2}{...}
{p2col: }{space 2}{res:{txt:exconst}{space 9}{txt:=} {space 3}4.940659 {txt:(mean)}}{p_end}
{p2colreset}{...}
{txt}{p2colset 1 14 16 2}{...}
{p2col: }{space 2}{res:{txt:youthBulgeln}{space 4}{txt:=} {space 3}2.888049 {txt:(mean)}}{p_end}
{p2colreset}{...}
{txt}{p2colset 1 14 16 2}{...}
{p2col: }{space 2}{res:{txt:v2x_juconln}{space 5}{txt:=} {space 2}-.7291509 {txt:(mean)}}{p_end}
{p2colreset}{...}
{txt}{p2colset 1 14 16 2}{...}
{p2col: }{space 2}{res:{txt:conflictYear}{space 4}{txt:=} {space 3}.1611722 {txt:(mean)}}{p_end}
{p2colreset}{...}
{txt}{p2colset 1 14 16 2}{...}
{p2col: }{space 2}{res:{txt:gdpPerCapi~z}{space 4}{txt:=} {space 10}1}{p_end}
{p2colreset}{...}
{txt}{p2colset 1 14 16 2}{...}
{p2col: }{space 2}{res:{txt:population_z}{space 4}{txt:=} {space 2}-.0075523 {txt:(mean)}}{p_end}
{p2colreset}{...}

{res}{txt}{hline 13}{c TT}{hline 11}{hline 11}{hline 9}{hline 8}{hline 13}{hline 12}
{col 14}{c |}{col 26} Delta-method
{col 14}{c |}     Margin{col 26}   Std. Err.{col 38}      z{col 46}   P>|z|{col 54}     [95% Con{col 67}f. Interval]
{hline 13}{c +}{hline 11}{hline 11}{hline 9}{hline 8}{hline 13}{hline 12}
{space 9}_at {c |}
{space 10}1  {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2} .7430057{col 26}{space 2} .0489373{col 37}{space 1}   15.18{col 46}{space 3}0.000{col 54}{space 4} .6470904{col 67}{space 3} .8389211
{txt}{space 10}2  {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2} .8576311{col 26}{space 2} .0668721{col 37}{space 1}   12.82{col 46}{space 3}0.000{col 54}{space 4} .7265641{col 67}{space 3} .9886981
{txt}{hline 13}{c BT}{hline 11}{hline 11}{hline 9}{hline 8}{hline 13}{hline 12}
{res}{txt}
{com}. test _b[1._at] = _b[2._at]

{p 0 7}{space 1}{text:( 1)}{space 1} {res}1bn._at - 2._at = 0{p_end}

{txt}{col 12}chi2(  1) ={res}   11.57
{txt}{col 10}Prob > chi2 =  {res}  0.0007
{txt}
{com}. di _b[2._at] - _b[1._at]
{res}.11462534
{txt}
{com}. 
. * Population (stand.)
. quietly: xtgee restrictionCount2 c.pts_stateDep##i.ICCPR_ratif protest_ClarkRegan_logLag1 exconst youthBulgeln v2x_juconln conflictYear gdpPerCapita_z population_z if YEAR>=1994, tol(0.02) force corr(ar 1) family(nbinom) link (nbinom)
{txt}
{com}. sum population_z

{txt}    Variable {c |}        Obs        Mean    Std. Dev.       Min        Max
{hline 13}{c +}{hline 57}
population_z {c |}{res}      3,559   -5.51e-10           1  -.2719683   9.906546
{txt}
{com}. local mn = r(mean)
{txt}
{com}. local mnsd = r(mean) + r(sd)
{txt}
{com}. margins, at(population_z = `mn') at(population_z = `mnsd') atmeans post
{res}
{txt}Adjusted predictions{col 49}Number of obs{col 67}= {res}     2,730
{txt}Model VCE{col 14}: {res}Conventional

{txt}{p2colset 1 14 16 2}{...}
{p2col:Expression}:{space 1}{res:Negative binomial prediction, predict()}{p_end}
{p2colreset}{...}

{txt}{p2colset 1 14 16 2}{...}
{p2col:1._at}:{space 1}{res:{txt:pts_stateDep}{space 4}{txt:=} {space 3}2.572161 {txt:(mean)}}{p_end}
{p2colreset}{...}
{txt}{p2colset 1 14 16 2}{...}
{p2col: }{space 2}{res:{txt:0.ICCPR_ra~f}{space 4}{txt:=} {space 3}.0882784 {txt:(mean)}}{p_end}
{p2colreset}{...}
{txt}{p2colset 1 14 16 2}{...}
{p2col: }{space 2}{res:{txt:1.ICCPR_ra~f}{space 4}{txt:=} {space 3}.9117216 {txt:(mean)}}{p_end}
{p2colreset}{...}
{txt}{p2colset 1 14 16 2}{...}
{p2col: }{space 2}{res:{txt:protest_Cl~1}{space 4}{txt:=} {space 3}.9611858 {txt:(mean)}}{p_end}
{p2colreset}{...}
{txt}{p2colset 1 14 16 2}{...}
{p2col: }{space 2}{res:{txt:exconst}{space 9}{txt:=} {space 3}4.940659 {txt:(mean)}}{p_end}
{p2colreset}{...}
{txt}{p2colset 1 14 16 2}{...}
{p2col: }{space 2}{res:{txt:youthBulgeln}{space 4}{txt:=} {space 3}2.888049 {txt:(mean)}}{p_end}
{p2colreset}{...}
{txt}{p2colset 1 14 16 2}{...}
{p2col: }{space 2}{res:{txt:v2x_juconln}{space 5}{txt:=} {space 2}-.7291509 {txt:(mean)}}{p_end}
{p2colreset}{...}
{txt}{p2colset 1 14 16 2}{...}
{p2col: }{space 2}{res:{txt:conflictYear}{space 4}{txt:=} {space 3}.1611722 {txt:(mean)}}{p_end}
{p2colreset}{...}
{txt}{p2colset 1 14 16 2}{...}
{p2col: }{space 2}{res:{txt:gdpPerCapi~z}{space 4}{txt:=} {space 2}-.0923083 {txt:(mean)}}{p_end}
{p2colreset}{...}
{txt}{p2colset 1 14 16 2}{...}
{p2col: }{space 2}{res:{txt:population_z}{space 4}{txt:=} {space 2}-5.51e-10}{p_end}
{p2colreset}{...}

{txt}{p2colset 1 14 16 2}{...}
{p2col:2._at}:{space 1}{res:{txt:pts_stateDep}{space 4}{txt:=} {space 3}2.572161 {txt:(mean)}}{p_end}
{p2colreset}{...}
{txt}{p2colset 1 14 16 2}{...}
{p2col: }{space 2}{res:{txt:0.ICCPR_ra~f}{space 4}{txt:=} {space 3}.0882784 {txt:(mean)}}{p_end}
{p2colreset}{...}
{txt}{p2colset 1 14 16 2}{...}
{p2col: }{space 2}{res:{txt:1.ICCPR_ra~f}{space 4}{txt:=} {space 3}.9117216 {txt:(mean)}}{p_end}
{p2colreset}{...}
{txt}{p2colset 1 14 16 2}{...}
{p2col: }{space 2}{res:{txt:protest_Cl~1}{space 4}{txt:=} {space 3}.9611858 {txt:(mean)}}{p_end}
{p2colreset}{...}
{txt}{p2colset 1 14 16 2}{...}
{p2col: }{space 2}{res:{txt:exconst}{space 9}{txt:=} {space 3}4.940659 {txt:(mean)}}{p_end}
{p2colreset}{...}
{txt}{p2colset 1 14 16 2}{...}
{p2col: }{space 2}{res:{txt:youthBulgeln}{space 4}{txt:=} {space 3}2.888049 {txt:(mean)}}{p_end}
{p2colreset}{...}
{txt}{p2colset 1 14 16 2}{...}
{p2col: }{space 2}{res:{txt:v2x_juconln}{space 5}{txt:=} {space 2}-.7291509 {txt:(mean)}}{p_end}
{p2colreset}{...}
{txt}{p2colset 1 14 16 2}{...}
{p2col: }{space 2}{res:{txt:conflictYear}{space 4}{txt:=} {space 3}.1611722 {txt:(mean)}}{p_end}
{p2colreset}{...}
{txt}{p2colset 1 14 16 2}{...}
{p2col: }{space 2}{res:{txt:gdpPerCapi~z}{space 4}{txt:=} {space 2}-.0923083 {txt:(mean)}}{p_end}
{p2colreset}{...}
{txt}{p2colset 1 14 16 2}{...}
{p2col: }{space 2}{res:{txt:population_z}{space 4}{txt:=} {space 10}1}{p_end}
{p2colreset}{...}

{res}{txt}{hline 13}{c TT}{hline 11}{hline 11}{hline 9}{hline 8}{hline 13}{hline 12}
{col 14}{c |}{col 26} Delta-method
{col 14}{c |}     Margin{col 26}   Std. Err.{col 38}      z{col 46}   P>|z|{col 54}     [95% Con{col 67}f. Interval]
{hline 13}{c +}{hline 11}{hline 11}{hline 9}{hline 8}{hline 13}{hline 12}
{space 9}_at {c |}
{space 10}1  {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2}  .734076{col 26}{space 2}  .048258{col 37}{space 1}   15.21{col 46}{space 3}0.000{col 54}{space 4} .6394921{col 67}{space 3} .8286598
{txt}{space 10}2  {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2} .8080075{col 26}{space 2} .0530687{col 37}{space 1}   15.23{col 46}{space 3}0.000{col 54}{space 4} .7039948{col 67}{space 3} .9120203
{txt}{hline 13}{c BT}{hline 11}{hline 11}{hline 9}{hline 8}{hline 13}{hline 12}
{res}{txt}
{com}. test _b[1._at] = _b[2._at]

{p 0 7}{space 1}{text:( 1)}{space 1} {res}1bn._at - 2._at = 0{p_end}

{txt}{col 12}chi2(  1) ={res}   36.53
{txt}{col 10}Prob > chi2 =  {res}  0.0000
{txt}
{com}. di _b[2._at] - _b[1._at]
{res}.07393158
{txt}
{com}. 
. 
. * Political Terror Scale (CAT not ratified)+
. quietly: xtgee restrictionCount2 c.pts_stateDep##i.CAT_ratif protest_ClarkRegan_logLag1 exconst youthBulgeln v2x_juconln conflictYear gdpPerCapita_z population_z if YEAR>=1994, corr(ar 1) family(nbinom) link(nbinom) force tol(0.01)
{txt}
{com}. sum pts_stateDep

{txt}    Variable {c |}        Obs        Mean    Std. Dev.       Min        Max
{hline 13}{c +}{hline 57}
pts_stateDep {c |}{res}      3,551    2.537595    1.147285          1          5
{txt}
{com}. local mn = r(mean)
{txt}
{com}. local mnsd = r(mean) + r(sd)
{txt}
{com}. margins, at(pts_stateDep = `mn' CAT_ratif=0) at(pts_stateDep = `mnsd' CAT_ratif=0) atmeans post
{res}
{txt}Adjusted predictions{col 49}Number of obs{col 67}= {res}     2,730
{txt}Model VCE{col 14}: {res}Conventional

{txt}{p2colset 1 14 16 2}{...}
{p2col:Expression}:{space 1}{res:Negative binomial prediction, predict()}{p_end}
{p2colreset}{...}

{txt}{p2colset 1 14 16 2}{...}
{p2col:1._at}:{space 1}{res:{txt:pts_stateDep}{space 4}{txt:=} {space 3}2.537595}{p_end}
{p2colreset}{...}
{txt}{p2colset 1 14 16 2}{...}
{p2col: }{space 2}{res:{txt:CAT_ratif}{space 7}{txt:=} {space 10}0}{p_end}
{p2colreset}{...}
{txt}{p2colset 1 14 16 2}{...}
{p2col: }{space 2}{res:{txt:protest_Cl~1}{space 4}{txt:=} {space 3}.9611858 {txt:(mean)}}{p_end}
{p2colreset}{...}
{txt}{p2colset 1 14 16 2}{...}
{p2col: }{space 2}{res:{txt:exconst}{space 9}{txt:=} {space 3}4.940659 {txt:(mean)}}{p_end}
{p2colreset}{...}
{txt}{p2colset 1 14 16 2}{...}
{p2col: }{space 2}{res:{txt:youthBulgeln}{space 4}{txt:=} {space 3}2.888049 {txt:(mean)}}{p_end}
{p2colreset}{...}
{txt}{p2colset 1 14 16 2}{...}
{p2col: }{space 2}{res:{txt:v2x_juconln}{space 5}{txt:=} {space 2}-.7291509 {txt:(mean)}}{p_end}
{p2colreset}{...}
{txt}{p2colset 1 14 16 2}{...}
{p2col: }{space 2}{res:{txt:conflictYear}{space 4}{txt:=} {space 3}.1611722 {txt:(mean)}}{p_end}
{p2colreset}{...}
{txt}{p2colset 1 14 16 2}{...}
{p2col: }{space 2}{res:{txt:gdpPerCapi~z}{space 4}{txt:=} {space 2}-.0923083 {txt:(mean)}}{p_end}
{p2colreset}{...}
{txt}{p2colset 1 14 16 2}{...}
{p2col: }{space 2}{res:{txt:population_z}{space 4}{txt:=} {space 2}-.0075523 {txt:(mean)}}{p_end}
{p2colreset}{...}

{txt}{p2colset 1 14 16 2}{...}
{p2col:2._at}:{space 1}{res:{txt:pts_stateDep}{space 4}{txt:=} {space 4}3.68488}{p_end}
{p2colreset}{...}
{txt}{p2colset 1 14 16 2}{...}
{p2col: }{space 2}{res:{txt:CAT_ratif}{space 7}{txt:=} {space 10}0}{p_end}
{p2colreset}{...}
{txt}{p2colset 1 14 16 2}{...}
{p2col: }{space 2}{res:{txt:protest_Cl~1}{space 4}{txt:=} {space 3}.9611858 {txt:(mean)}}{p_end}
{p2colreset}{...}
{txt}{p2colset 1 14 16 2}{...}
{p2col: }{space 2}{res:{txt:exconst}{space 9}{txt:=} {space 3}4.940659 {txt:(mean)}}{p_end}
{p2colreset}{...}
{txt}{p2colset 1 14 16 2}{...}
{p2col: }{space 2}{res:{txt:youthBulgeln}{space 4}{txt:=} {space 3}2.888049 {txt:(mean)}}{p_end}
{p2colreset}{...}
{txt}{p2colset 1 14 16 2}{...}
{p2col: }{space 2}{res:{txt:v2x_juconln}{space 5}{txt:=} {space 2}-.7291509 {txt:(mean)}}{p_end}
{p2colreset}{...}
{txt}{p2colset 1 14 16 2}{...}
{p2col: }{space 2}{res:{txt:conflictYear}{space 4}{txt:=} {space 3}.1611722 {txt:(mean)}}{p_end}
{p2colreset}{...}
{txt}{p2colset 1 14 16 2}{...}
{p2col: }{space 2}{res:{txt:gdpPerCapi~z}{space 4}{txt:=} {space 2}-.0923083 {txt:(mean)}}{p_end}
{p2colreset}{...}
{txt}{p2colset 1 14 16 2}{...}
{p2col: }{space 2}{res:{txt:population_z}{space 4}{txt:=} {space 2}-.0075523 {txt:(mean)}}{p_end}
{p2colreset}{...}

{res}{txt}{hline 13}{c TT}{hline 11}{hline 11}{hline 9}{hline 8}{hline 13}{hline 12}
{col 14}{c |}{col 26} Delta-method
{col 14}{c |}     Margin{col 26}   Std. Err.{col 38}      z{col 46}   P>|z|{col 54}     [95% Con{col 67}f. Interval]
{hline 13}{c +}{hline 11}{hline 11}{hline 9}{hline 8}{hline 13}{hline 12}
{space 9}_at {c |}
{space 10}1  {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2} .7689172{col 26}{space 2} .0706519{col 37}{space 1}   10.88{col 46}{space 3}0.000{col 54}{space 4} .6304421{col 67}{space 3} .9073923
{txt}{space 10}2  {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2} .7574357{col 26}{space 2} .0672385{col 37}{space 1}   11.26{col 46}{space 3}0.000{col 54}{space 4} .6256506{col 67}{space 3} .8892208
{txt}{hline 13}{c BT}{hline 11}{hline 11}{hline 9}{hline 8}{hline 13}{hline 12}
{res}{txt}
{com}. test _b[1._at] = _b[2._at]

{p 0 7}{space 1}{text:( 1)}{space 1} {res}1bn._at - 2._at = 0{p_end}

{txt}{col 12}chi2(  1) ={res}    0.09
{txt}{col 10}Prob > chi2 =  {res}  0.7622
{txt}
{com}. di _b[2._at] - _b[1._at]
{res}-.01148151
{txt}
{com}. 
. * Political Terror Scale (CAT ratified)+
. quietly: xtgee restrictionCount2 c.pts_stateDep##i.CAT_ratif protest_ClarkRegan_logLag1 exconst youthBulgeln v2x_juconln conflictYear gdpPerCapita_z population_z if YEAR>=1994, corr(ar 1) family(nbinom) link(nbinom) force tol(0.01)
{txt}
{com}. sum pts_stateDep

{txt}    Variable {c |}        Obs        Mean    Std. Dev.       Min        Max
{hline 13}{c +}{hline 57}
pts_stateDep {c |}{res}      3,551    2.537595    1.147285          1          5
{txt}
{com}. margins, at(pts_stateDep = `mn' CAT_ratif=1) at(pts_stateDep = `mnsd' CAT_ratif=1) atmeans post
{res}
{txt}Adjusted predictions{col 49}Number of obs{col 67}= {res}     2,730
{txt}Model VCE{col 14}: {res}Conventional

{txt}{p2colset 1 14 16 2}{...}
{p2col:Expression}:{space 1}{res:Negative binomial prediction, predict()}{p_end}
{p2colreset}{...}

{txt}{p2colset 1 14 16 2}{...}
{p2col:1._at}:{space 1}{res:{txt:pts_stateDep}{space 4}{txt:=} {space 3}2.537595}{p_end}
{p2colreset}{...}
{txt}{p2colset 1 14 16 2}{...}
{p2col: }{space 2}{res:{txt:CAT_ratif}{space 7}{txt:=} {space 10}1}{p_end}
{p2colreset}{...}
{txt}{p2colset 1 14 16 2}{...}
{p2col: }{space 2}{res:{txt:protest_Cl~1}{space 4}{txt:=} {space 3}.9611858 {txt:(mean)}}{p_end}
{p2colreset}{...}
{txt}{p2colset 1 14 16 2}{...}
{p2col: }{space 2}{res:{txt:exconst}{space 9}{txt:=} {space 3}4.940659 {txt:(mean)}}{p_end}
{p2colreset}{...}
{txt}{p2colset 1 14 16 2}{...}
{p2col: }{space 2}{res:{txt:youthBulgeln}{space 4}{txt:=} {space 3}2.888049 {txt:(mean)}}{p_end}
{p2colreset}{...}
{txt}{p2colset 1 14 16 2}{...}
{p2col: }{space 2}{res:{txt:v2x_juconln}{space 5}{txt:=} {space 2}-.7291509 {txt:(mean)}}{p_end}
{p2colreset}{...}
{txt}{p2colset 1 14 16 2}{...}
{p2col: }{space 2}{res:{txt:conflictYear}{space 4}{txt:=} {space 3}.1611722 {txt:(mean)}}{p_end}
{p2colreset}{...}
{txt}{p2colset 1 14 16 2}{...}
{p2col: }{space 2}{res:{txt:gdpPerCapi~z}{space 4}{txt:=} {space 2}-.0923083 {txt:(mean)}}{p_end}
{p2colreset}{...}
{txt}{p2colset 1 14 16 2}{...}
{p2col: }{space 2}{res:{txt:population_z}{space 4}{txt:=} {space 2}-.0075523 {txt:(mean)}}{p_end}
{p2colreset}{...}

{txt}{p2colset 1 14 16 2}{...}
{p2col:2._at}:{space 1}{res:{txt:pts_stateDep}{space 4}{txt:=} {space 4}3.68488}{p_end}
{p2colreset}{...}
{txt}{p2colset 1 14 16 2}{...}
{p2col: }{space 2}{res:{txt:CAT_ratif}{space 7}{txt:=} {space 10}1}{p_end}
{p2colreset}{...}
{txt}{p2colset 1 14 16 2}{...}
{p2col: }{space 2}{res:{txt:protest_Cl~1}{space 4}{txt:=} {space 3}.9611858 {txt:(mean)}}{p_end}
{p2colreset}{...}
{txt}{p2colset 1 14 16 2}{...}
{p2col: }{space 2}{res:{txt:exconst}{space 9}{txt:=} {space 3}4.940659 {txt:(mean)}}{p_end}
{p2colreset}{...}
{txt}{p2colset 1 14 16 2}{...}
{p2col: }{space 2}{res:{txt:youthBulgeln}{space 4}{txt:=} {space 3}2.888049 {txt:(mean)}}{p_end}
{p2colreset}{...}
{txt}{p2colset 1 14 16 2}{...}
{p2col: }{space 2}{res:{txt:v2x_juconln}{space 5}{txt:=} {space 2}-.7291509 {txt:(mean)}}{p_end}
{p2colreset}{...}
{txt}{p2colset 1 14 16 2}{...}
{p2col: }{space 2}{res:{txt:conflictYear}{space 4}{txt:=} {space 3}.1611722 {txt:(mean)}}{p_end}
{p2colreset}{...}
{txt}{p2colset 1 14 16 2}{...}
{p2col: }{space 2}{res:{txt:gdpPerCapi~z}{space 4}{txt:=} {space 2}-.0923083 {txt:(mean)}}{p_end}
{p2colreset}{...}
{txt}{p2colset 1 14 16 2}{...}
{p2col: }{space 2}{res:{txt:population_z}{space 4}{txt:=} {space 2}-.0075523 {txt:(mean)}}{p_end}
{p2colreset}{...}

{res}{txt}{hline 13}{c TT}{hline 11}{hline 11}{hline 9}{hline 8}{hline 13}{hline 12}
{col 14}{c |}{col 26} Delta-method
{col 14}{c |}     Margin{col 26}   Std. Err.{col 38}      z{col 46}   P>|z|{col 54}     [95% Con{col 67}f. Interval]
{hline 13}{c +}{hline 11}{hline 11}{hline 9}{hline 8}{hline 13}{hline 12}
{space 9}_at {c |}
{space 10}1  {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2} .6674479{col 26}{space 2} .0478833{col 37}{space 1}   13.94{col 46}{space 3}0.000{col 54}{space 4} .5735984{col 67}{space 3} .7612974
{txt}{space 10}2  {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2} 1.015986{col 26}{space 2} .0693393{col 37}{space 1}   14.65{col 46}{space 3}0.000{col 54}{space 4} .8800832{col 67}{space 3} 1.151888
{txt}{hline 13}{c BT}{hline 11}{hline 11}{hline 9}{hline 8}{hline 13}{hline 12}
{res}{txt}
{com}. test _b[1._at] = _b[2._at]

{p 0 7}{space 1}{text:( 1)}{space 1} {res}1bn._at - 2._at = 0{p_end}

{txt}{col 12}chi2(  1) ={res}  167.92
{txt}{col 10}Prob > chi2 =  {res}  0.0000
{txt}
{com}. di _b[2._at] - _b[1._at]
{res}.34853785
{txt}
{com}. 
. * CAT (Political Terror Scale = 1)+
. quietly: xtgee restrictionCount2 c.pts_stateDep##i.CAT_ratif protest_ClarkRegan_logLag1 exconst youthBulgeln v2x_juconln conflictYear gdpPerCapita_z population_z if YEAR>=1994, corr(ar 1) family(nbinom) link(nbinom) force tol(0.01)
{txt}
{com}. margins, at(pts_stateDep = 1 CAT_ratif=0) at(pts_stateDep = 1 CAT_ratif=1) atmeans post
{res}
{txt}Adjusted predictions{col 49}Number of obs{col 67}= {res}     2,730
{txt}Model VCE{col 14}: {res}Conventional

{txt}{p2colset 1 14 16 2}{...}
{p2col:Expression}:{space 1}{res:Negative binomial prediction, predict()}{p_end}
{p2colreset}{...}

{txt}{p2colset 1 14 16 2}{...}
{p2col:1._at}:{space 1}{res:{txt:pts_stateDep}{space 4}{txt:=} {space 10}1}{p_end}
{p2colreset}{...}
{txt}{p2colset 1 14 16 2}{...}
{p2col: }{space 2}{res:{txt:CAT_ratif}{space 7}{txt:=} {space 10}0}{p_end}
{p2colreset}{...}
{txt}{p2colset 1 14 16 2}{...}
{p2col: }{space 2}{res:{txt:protest_Cl~1}{space 4}{txt:=} {space 3}.9611858 {txt:(mean)}}{p_end}
{p2colreset}{...}
{txt}{p2colset 1 14 16 2}{...}
{p2col: }{space 2}{res:{txt:exconst}{space 9}{txt:=} {space 3}4.940659 {txt:(mean)}}{p_end}
{p2colreset}{...}
{txt}{p2colset 1 14 16 2}{...}
{p2col: }{space 2}{res:{txt:youthBulgeln}{space 4}{txt:=} {space 3}2.888049 {txt:(mean)}}{p_end}
{p2colreset}{...}
{txt}{p2colset 1 14 16 2}{...}
{p2col: }{space 2}{res:{txt:v2x_juconln}{space 5}{txt:=} {space 2}-.7291509 {txt:(mean)}}{p_end}
{p2colreset}{...}
{txt}{p2colset 1 14 16 2}{...}
{p2col: }{space 2}{res:{txt:conflictYear}{space 4}{txt:=} {space 3}.1611722 {txt:(mean)}}{p_end}
{p2colreset}{...}
{txt}{p2colset 1 14 16 2}{...}
{p2col: }{space 2}{res:{txt:gdpPerCapi~z}{space 4}{txt:=} {space 2}-.0923083 {txt:(mean)}}{p_end}
{p2colreset}{...}
{txt}{p2colset 1 14 16 2}{...}
{p2col: }{space 2}{res:{txt:population_z}{space 4}{txt:=} {space 2}-.0075523 {txt:(mean)}}{p_end}
{p2colreset}{...}

{txt}{p2colset 1 14 16 2}{...}
{p2col:2._at}:{space 1}{res:{txt:pts_stateDep}{space 4}{txt:=} {space 10}1}{p_end}
{p2colreset}{...}
{txt}{p2colset 1 14 16 2}{...}
{p2col: }{space 2}{res:{txt:CAT_ratif}{space 7}{txt:=} {space 10}1}{p_end}
{p2colreset}{...}
{txt}{p2colset 1 14 16 2}{...}
{p2col: }{space 2}{res:{txt:protest_Cl~1}{space 4}{txt:=} {space 3}.9611858 {txt:(mean)}}{p_end}
{p2colreset}{...}
{txt}{p2colset 1 14 16 2}{...}
{p2col: }{space 2}{res:{txt:exconst}{space 9}{txt:=} {space 3}4.940659 {txt:(mean)}}{p_end}
{p2colreset}{...}
{txt}{p2colset 1 14 16 2}{...}
{p2col: }{space 2}{res:{txt:youthBulgeln}{space 4}{txt:=} {space 3}2.888049 {txt:(mean)}}{p_end}
{p2colreset}{...}
{txt}{p2colset 1 14 16 2}{...}
{p2col: }{space 2}{res:{txt:v2x_juconln}{space 5}{txt:=} {space 2}-.7291509 {txt:(mean)}}{p_end}
{p2colreset}{...}
{txt}{p2colset 1 14 16 2}{...}
{p2col: }{space 2}{res:{txt:conflictYear}{space 4}{txt:=} {space 3}.1611722 {txt:(mean)}}{p_end}
{p2colreset}{...}
{txt}{p2colset 1 14 16 2}{...}
{p2col: }{space 2}{res:{txt:gdpPerCapi~z}{space 4}{txt:=} {space 2}-.0923083 {txt:(mean)}}{p_end}
{p2colreset}{...}
{txt}{p2colset 1 14 16 2}{...}
{p2col: }{space 2}{res:{txt:population_z}{space 4}{txt:=} {space 2}-.0075523 {txt:(mean)}}{p_end}
{p2colreset}{...}

{res}{txt}{hline 13}{c TT}{hline 11}{hline 11}{hline 9}{hline 8}{hline 13}{hline 12}
{col 14}{c |}{col 26} Delta-method
{col 14}{c |}     Margin{col 26}   Std. Err.{col 38}      z{col 46}   P>|z|{col 54}     [95% Con{col 67}f. Interval]
{hline 13}{c +}{hline 11}{hline 11}{hline 9}{hline 8}{hline 13}{hline 12}
{space 9}_at {c |}
{space 10}1  {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2} .7847003{col 26}{space 2} .1026791{col 37}{space 1}    7.64{col 46}{space 3}0.000{col 54}{space 4}  .583453{col 67}{space 3} .9859477
{txt}{space 10}2  {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2} .4163633{col 26}{space 2}  .034496{col 37}{space 1}   12.07{col 46}{space 3}0.000{col 54}{space 4} .3487524{col 67}{space 3} .4839742
{txt}{hline 13}{c BT}{hline 11}{hline 11}{hline 9}{hline 8}{hline 13}{hline 12}
{res}{txt}
{com}. test _b[1._at] = _b[2._at]

{p 0 7}{space 1}{text:( 1)}{space 1} {res}1bn._at - 2._at = 0{p_end}

{txt}{col 12}chi2(  1) ={res}   14.25
{txt}{col 10}Prob > chi2 =  {res}  0.0002
{txt}
{com}. di _b[2._at] - _b[1._at]
{res}-.36833705
{txt}
{com}. 
. * CAT (Political Terror Scale = 5)+
. quietly: xtgee restrictionCount2 c.pts_stateDep##i.CAT_ratif protest_ClarkRegan_logLag1 exconst youthBulgeln v2x_juconln conflictYear gdpPerCapita_z population_z if YEAR>=1994, corr(ar 1) family(nbinom) link(nbinom) force tol(0.01)
{txt}
{com}. gen sample = e(sample)
{txt}
{com}. sum pts_stateDep

{txt}    Variable {c |}        Obs        Mean    Std. Dev.       Min        Max
{hline 13}{c +}{hline 57}
pts_stateDep {c |}{res}      3,551    2.537595    1.147285          1          5
{txt}
{com}. margins, at(pts_stateDep = 5 CAT_ratif=0) at(pts_stateDep = 5 CAT_ratif=1) atmeans post
{res}
{txt}Adjusted predictions{col 49}Number of obs{col 67}= {res}     2,730
{txt}Model VCE{col 14}: {res}Conventional

{txt}{p2colset 1 14 16 2}{...}
{p2col:Expression}:{space 1}{res:Negative binomial prediction, predict()}{p_end}
{p2colreset}{...}

{txt}{p2colset 1 14 16 2}{...}
{p2col:1._at}:{space 1}{res:{txt:pts_stateDep}{space 4}{txt:=} {space 10}5}{p_end}
{p2colreset}{...}
{txt}{p2colset 1 14 16 2}{...}
{p2col: }{space 2}{res:{txt:CAT_ratif}{space 7}{txt:=} {space 10}0}{p_end}
{p2colreset}{...}
{txt}{p2colset 1 14 16 2}{...}
{p2col: }{space 2}{res:{txt:protest_Cl~1}{space 4}{txt:=} {space 3}.9611858 {txt:(mean)}}{p_end}
{p2colreset}{...}
{txt}{p2colset 1 14 16 2}{...}
{p2col: }{space 2}{res:{txt:exconst}{space 9}{txt:=} {space 3}4.940659 {txt:(mean)}}{p_end}
{p2colreset}{...}
{txt}{p2colset 1 14 16 2}{...}
{p2col: }{space 2}{res:{txt:youthBulgeln}{space 4}{txt:=} {space 3}2.888049 {txt:(mean)}}{p_end}
{p2colreset}{...}
{txt}{p2colset 1 14 16 2}{...}
{p2col: }{space 2}{res:{txt:v2x_juconln}{space 5}{txt:=} {space 2}-.7291509 {txt:(mean)}}{p_end}
{p2colreset}{...}
{txt}{p2colset 1 14 16 2}{...}
{p2col: }{space 2}{res:{txt:conflictYear}{space 4}{txt:=} {space 3}.1611722 {txt:(mean)}}{p_end}
{p2colreset}{...}
{txt}{p2colset 1 14 16 2}{...}
{p2col: }{space 2}{res:{txt:gdpPerCapi~z}{space 4}{txt:=} {space 2}-.0923083 {txt:(mean)}}{p_end}
{p2colreset}{...}
{txt}{p2colset 1 14 16 2}{...}
{p2col: }{space 2}{res:{txt:population_z}{space 4}{txt:=} {space 2}-.0075523 {txt:(mean)}}{p_end}
{p2colreset}{...}

{txt}{p2colset 1 14 16 2}{...}
{p2col:2._at}:{space 1}{res:{txt:pts_stateDep}{space 4}{txt:=} {space 10}5}{p_end}
{p2colreset}{...}
{txt}{p2colset 1 14 16 2}{...}
{p2col: }{space 2}{res:{txt:CAT_ratif}{space 7}{txt:=} {space 10}1}{p_end}
{p2colreset}{...}
{txt}{p2colset 1 14 16 2}{...}
{p2col: }{space 2}{res:{txt:protest_Cl~1}{space 4}{txt:=} {space 3}.9611858 {txt:(mean)}}{p_end}
{p2colreset}{...}
{txt}{p2colset 1 14 16 2}{...}
{p2col: }{space 2}{res:{txt:exconst}{space 9}{txt:=} {space 3}4.940659 {txt:(mean)}}{p_end}
{p2colreset}{...}
{txt}{p2colset 1 14 16 2}{...}
{p2col: }{space 2}{res:{txt:youthBulgeln}{space 4}{txt:=} {space 3}2.888049 {txt:(mean)}}{p_end}
{p2colreset}{...}
{txt}{p2colset 1 14 16 2}{...}
{p2col: }{space 2}{res:{txt:v2x_juconln}{space 5}{txt:=} {space 2}-.7291509 {txt:(mean)}}{p_end}
{p2colreset}{...}
{txt}{p2colset 1 14 16 2}{...}
{p2col: }{space 2}{res:{txt:conflictYear}{space 4}{txt:=} {space 3}.1611722 {txt:(mean)}}{p_end}
{p2colreset}{...}
{txt}{p2colset 1 14 16 2}{...}
{p2col: }{space 2}{res:{txt:gdpPerCapi~z}{space 4}{txt:=} {space 2}-.0923083 {txt:(mean)}}{p_end}
{p2colreset}{...}
{txt}{p2colset 1 14 16 2}{...}
{p2col: }{space 2}{res:{txt:population_z}{space 4}{txt:=} {space 2}-.0075523 {txt:(mean)}}{p_end}
{p2colreset}{...}

{res}{txt}{hline 13}{c TT}{hline 11}{hline 11}{hline 9}{hline 8}{hline 13}{hline 12}
{col 14}{c |}{col 26} Delta-method
{col 14}{c |}     Margin{col 26}   Std. Err.{col 38}      z{col 46}   P>|z|{col 54}     [95% Con{col 67}f. Interval]
{hline 13}{c +}{hline 11}{hline 11}{hline 9}{hline 8}{hline 13}{hline 12}
{space 9}_at {c |}
{space 10}1  {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2}  .744574{col 26}{space 2} .0854675{col 37}{space 1}    8.71{col 46}{space 3}0.000{col 54}{space 4} .5770609{col 67}{space 3} .9120872
{txt}{space 10}2  {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2}  1.90909{col 26}{space 2} .1598802{col 37}{space 1}   11.94{col 46}{space 3}0.000{col 54}{space 4} 1.595731{col 67}{space 3}  2.22245
{txt}{hline 13}{c BT}{hline 11}{hline 11}{hline 9}{hline 8}{hline 13}{hline 12}
{res}{txt}
{com}. test _b[1._at] = _b[2._at]

{p 0 7}{space 1}{text:( 1)}{space 1} {res}1bn._at - 2._at = 0{p_end}

{txt}{col 12}chi2(  1) ={res}   68.23
{txt}{col 10}Prob > chi2 =  {res}  0.0000
{txt}
{com}. di _b[2._at] - _b[1._at]
{res}1.1645164
{txt}
{com}. 
. 
. ** Substantive interpretation **
. sum  protest_ClarkRegan_logLag1 if sample

{txt}    Variable {c |}        Obs        Mean    Std. Dev.       Min        Max
{hline 13}{c +}{hline 57}
protest_Cl~1 {c |}{res}      2,730    .9611858    .8919518          0   4.110874
{txt}
{com}. gen  protest_ClarkRegan_logLag1_exp =  exp(protest_ClarkRegan_logLag1)
{txt}(499 missing values generated)

{com}. sum protest_ClarkRegan_logLag1_exp if sample

{txt}    Variable {c |}        Obs        Mean    Std. Dev.       Min        Max
{hline 13}{c +}{hline 57}
protest_Cl~p {c |}{res}      2,730    4.089744    4.999414          1   60.99999
{txt}
{com}. 
. sum gdpPerCapita if sample

{txt}    Variable {c |}        Obs        Mean    Std. Dev.       Min        Max
{hline 13}{c +}{hline 57}
gdpPerCapita {c |}{res}      2,730    8.152964    1.535054   4.748713   11.42512
{txt}
{com}. gen gdpPerCapita_exp = exp(  gdpPerCapita)
{txt}(133 missing values generated)

{com}. sum gdpPerCapita_exp if sample

{txt}    Variable {c |}        Obs        Mean    Std. Dev.       Min        Max
{hline 13}{c +}{hline 57}
gdpPerCapi~p {c |}{res}      2,730    10313.65    16045.59   115.4357   91593.67
{txt}
{com}. 
. 
. *** Standardization
. egen pts_stateDep_z = std(pts_stateDep)
{txt}(62 missing values generated)

{com}. egen ICCPR_ratif_z = std(ICCPR_ratif)
{txt}
{com}. egen CAT_ratif_z = std(CAT_ratif)
{txt}
{com}. egen protest_ClarkRegan_logLag1_z = std(protest_ClarkRegan_logLag1)
{txt}(499 missing values generated)

{com}. egen exconst_z = std(exconst)
{txt}(188 missing values generated)

{com}. egen youthBulgeln_z = std(youthBulgeln) 
{txt}(108 missing values generated)

{com}. egen v2x_juconln_z = std(v2x_juconln)
{txt}(175 missing values generated)

{com}. egen conflictYear_z = std(conflictYear)
{txt}(42 missing values generated)

{com}. 
. quietly: xtgee restrictionCount2 c.pts_stateDep_z##i.ICCPR_ratif protest_ClarkRegan_logLag1_z exconst_z youthBulgeln_z v2x_juconln_z conflictYear_z gdpPerCapita_z population_z if YEAR>=1994, tol(0.02) force corr(ar 1) family(nbinom) link (nbinom)
{txt}
{com}. sum pts_stateDep_z

{txt}    Variable {c |}        Obs        Mean    Std. Dev.       Min        Max
{hline 13}{c +}{hline 57}
pts_stateD~z {c |}{res}      3,551   -1.07e-09           1  -1.340204   2.146289
{txt}
{com}. local mn = r(mean)
{txt}
{com}. local mnsd = r(mean) + r(sd)
{txt}
{com}. margins, at(ICCPR_ratif = 0 pts_stateDep_z=`mn') at(ICCPR_ratif = 0 pts_stateDep_z=`mnsd') atmeans post
{res}
{txt}Adjusted predictions{col 49}Number of obs{col 67}= {res}     2,730
{txt}Model VCE{col 14}: {res}Conventional

{txt}{p2colset 1 14 16 2}{...}
{p2col:Expression}:{space 1}{res:Negative binomial prediction, predict()}{p_end}
{p2colreset}{...}

{txt}{p2colset 1 14 16 2}{...}
{p2col:1._at}:{space 1}{res:{txt:pts_stateD~z}{space 4}{txt:=} {space 2}-1.07e-09}{p_end}
{p2colreset}{...}
{txt}{p2colset 1 14 16 2}{...}
{p2col: }{space 2}{res:{txt:ICCPR_ratif}{space 5}{txt:=} {space 10}0}{p_end}
{p2colreset}{...}
{txt}{p2colset 1 14 16 2}{...}
{p2col: }{space 2}{res:{txt:protest_Cl~z}{space 4}{txt:=} {space 5}.07208 {txt:(mean)}}{p_end}
{p2colreset}{...}
{txt}{p2colset 1 14 16 2}{...}
{p2col: }{space 2}{res:{txt:exconst_z}{space 7}{txt:=} {space 4}.109574 {txt:(mean)}}{p_end}
{p2colreset}{...}
{txt}{p2colset 1 14 16 2}{...}
{p2col: }{space 2}{res:{txt:youthBulge~z}{space 4}{txt:=} {space 3}.0196639 {txt:(mean)}}{p_end}
{p2colreset}{...}
{txt}{p2colset 1 14 16 2}{...}
{p2col: }{space 2}{res:{txt:v2x_juconl~z}{space 4}{txt:=} {space 6}.1076 {txt:(mean)}}{p_end}
{p2colreset}{...}
{txt}{p2colset 1 14 16 2}{...}
{p2col: }{space 2}{res:{txt:conflictYe~z}{space 4}{txt:=} {space 3}.0135299 {txt:(mean)}}{p_end}
{p2colreset}{...}
{txt}{p2colset 1 14 16 2}{...}
{p2col: }{space 2}{res:{txt:gdpPerCapi~z}{space 4}{txt:=} {space 2}-.0923083 {txt:(mean)}}{p_end}
{p2colreset}{...}
{txt}{p2colset 1 14 16 2}{...}
{p2col: }{space 2}{res:{txt:population_z}{space 4}{txt:=} {space 2}-.0075523 {txt:(mean)}}{p_end}
{p2colreset}{...}

{txt}{p2colset 1 14 16 2}{...}
{p2col:2._at}:{space 1}{res:{txt:pts_stateD~z}{space 4}{txt:=} {space 10}1}{p_end}
{p2colreset}{...}
{txt}{p2colset 1 14 16 2}{...}
{p2col: }{space 2}{res:{txt:ICCPR_ratif}{space 5}{txt:=} {space 10}0}{p_end}
{p2colreset}{...}
{txt}{p2colset 1 14 16 2}{...}
{p2col: }{space 2}{res:{txt:protest_Cl~z}{space 4}{txt:=} {space 5}.07208 {txt:(mean)}}{p_end}
{p2colreset}{...}
{txt}{p2colset 1 14 16 2}{...}
{p2col: }{space 2}{res:{txt:exconst_z}{space 7}{txt:=} {space 4}.109574 {txt:(mean)}}{p_end}
{p2colreset}{...}
{txt}{p2colset 1 14 16 2}{...}
{p2col: }{space 2}{res:{txt:youthBulge~z}{space 4}{txt:=} {space 3}.0196639 {txt:(mean)}}{p_end}
{p2colreset}{...}
{txt}{p2colset 1 14 16 2}{...}
{p2col: }{space 2}{res:{txt:v2x_juconl~z}{space 4}{txt:=} {space 6}.1076 {txt:(mean)}}{p_end}
{p2colreset}{...}
{txt}{p2colset 1 14 16 2}{...}
{p2col: }{space 2}{res:{txt:conflictYe~z}{space 4}{txt:=} {space 3}.0135299 {txt:(mean)}}{p_end}
{p2colreset}{...}
{txt}{p2colset 1 14 16 2}{...}
{p2col: }{space 2}{res:{txt:gdpPerCapi~z}{space 4}{txt:=} {space 2}-.0923083 {txt:(mean)}}{p_end}
{p2colreset}{...}
{txt}{p2colset 1 14 16 2}{...}
{p2col: }{space 2}{res:{txt:population_z}{space 4}{txt:=} {space 2}-.0075523 {txt:(mean)}}{p_end}
{p2colreset}{...}

{res}{txt}{hline 13}{c TT}{hline 11}{hline 11}{hline 9}{hline 8}{hline 13}{hline 12}
{col 14}{c |}{col 26} Delta-method
{col 14}{c |}     Margin{col 26}   Std. Err.{col 38}      z{col 46}   P>|z|{col 54}     [95% Con{col 67}f. Interval]
{hline 13}{c +}{hline 11}{hline 11}{hline 9}{hline 8}{hline 13}{hline 12}
{space 9}_at {c |}
{space 10}1  {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2} .8009553{col 26}{space 2} .0986863{col 37}{space 1}    8.12{col 46}{space 3}0.000{col 54}{space 4} .6075338{col 67}{space 3} .9943769
{txt}{space 10}2  {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2} .7818329{col 26}{space 2} .0992745{col 37}{space 1}    7.88{col 46}{space 3}0.000{col 54}{space 4} .5872584{col 67}{space 3} .9764074
{txt}{hline 13}{c BT}{hline 11}{hline 11}{hline 9}{hline 8}{hline 13}{hline 12}
{res}{txt}
{com}. test _b[1._at] = _b[2._at]

{p 0 7}{space 1}{text:( 1)}{space 1} {res}1bn._at - 2._at = 0{p_end}

{txt}{col 12}chi2(  1) ={res}    0.16
{txt}{col 10}Prob > chi2 =  {res}  0.6877
{txt}
{com}. di _b[2._at] - _b[1._at]
{res}-.01912241
{txt}
{com}. quietly: xtgee restrictionCount2 c.pts_stateDep_z##i.ICCPR_ratif protest_ClarkRegan_logLag1_z exconst_z youthBulgeln_z v2x_juconln_z conflictYear_z gdpPerCapita_z population_z if YEAR>=1994, tol(0.02) force corr(ar 1) family(nbinom) link (nbinom)
{txt}
{com}. sum pts_stateDep_z

{txt}    Variable {c |}        Obs        Mean    Std. Dev.       Min        Max
{hline 13}{c +}{hline 57}
pts_stateD~z {c |}{res}      3,551   -1.07e-09           1  -1.340204   2.146289
{txt}
{com}. local mn = r(mean)
{txt}
{com}. local mnsd = r(mean) + r(sd)
{txt}
{com}. margins, at(ICCPR_ratif = 1 pts_stateDep_z=`mn') at(ICCPR_ratif = 1 pts_stateDep_z=`mnsd') atmeans post
{res}
{txt}Adjusted predictions{col 49}Number of obs{col 67}= {res}     2,730
{txt}Model VCE{col 14}: {res}Conventional

{txt}{p2colset 1 14 16 2}{...}
{p2col:Expression}:{space 1}{res:Negative binomial prediction, predict()}{p_end}
{p2colreset}{...}

{txt}{p2colset 1 14 16 2}{...}
{p2col:1._at}:{space 1}{res:{txt:pts_stateD~z}{space 4}{txt:=} {space 2}-1.07e-09}{p_end}
{p2colreset}{...}
{txt}{p2colset 1 14 16 2}{...}
{p2col: }{space 2}{res:{txt:ICCPR_ratif}{space 5}{txt:=} {space 10}1}{p_end}
{p2colreset}{...}
{txt}{p2colset 1 14 16 2}{...}
{p2col: }{space 2}{res:{txt:protest_Cl~z}{space 4}{txt:=} {space 5}.07208 {txt:(mean)}}{p_end}
{p2colreset}{...}
{txt}{p2colset 1 14 16 2}{...}
{p2col: }{space 2}{res:{txt:exconst_z}{space 7}{txt:=} {space 4}.109574 {txt:(mean)}}{p_end}
{p2colreset}{...}
{txt}{p2colset 1 14 16 2}{...}
{p2col: }{space 2}{res:{txt:youthBulge~z}{space 4}{txt:=} {space 3}.0196639 {txt:(mean)}}{p_end}
{p2colreset}{...}
{txt}{p2colset 1 14 16 2}{...}
{p2col: }{space 2}{res:{txt:v2x_juconl~z}{space 4}{txt:=} {space 6}.1076 {txt:(mean)}}{p_end}
{p2colreset}{...}
{txt}{p2colset 1 14 16 2}{...}
{p2col: }{space 2}{res:{txt:conflictYe~z}{space 4}{txt:=} {space 3}.0135299 {txt:(mean)}}{p_end}
{p2colreset}{...}
{txt}{p2colset 1 14 16 2}{...}
{p2col: }{space 2}{res:{txt:gdpPerCapi~z}{space 4}{txt:=} {space 2}-.0923083 {txt:(mean)}}{p_end}
{p2colreset}{...}
{txt}{p2colset 1 14 16 2}{...}
{p2col: }{space 2}{res:{txt:population_z}{space 4}{txt:=} {space 2}-.0075523 {txt:(mean)}}{p_end}
{p2colreset}{...}

{txt}{p2colset 1 14 16 2}{...}
{p2col:2._at}:{space 1}{res:{txt:pts_stateD~z}{space 4}{txt:=} {space 10}1}{p_end}
{p2colreset}{...}
{txt}{p2colset 1 14 16 2}{...}
{p2col: }{space 2}{res:{txt:ICCPR_ratif}{space 5}{txt:=} {space 10}1}{p_end}
{p2colreset}{...}
{txt}{p2colset 1 14 16 2}{...}
{p2col: }{space 2}{res:{txt:protest_Cl~z}{space 4}{txt:=} {space 5}.07208 {txt:(mean)}}{p_end}
{p2colreset}{...}
{txt}{p2colset 1 14 16 2}{...}
{p2col: }{space 2}{res:{txt:exconst_z}{space 7}{txt:=} {space 4}.109574 {txt:(mean)}}{p_end}
{p2colreset}{...}
{txt}{p2colset 1 14 16 2}{...}
{p2col: }{space 2}{res:{txt:youthBulge~z}{space 4}{txt:=} {space 3}.0196639 {txt:(mean)}}{p_end}
{p2colreset}{...}
{txt}{p2colset 1 14 16 2}{...}
{p2col: }{space 2}{res:{txt:v2x_juconl~z}{space 4}{txt:=} {space 6}.1076 {txt:(mean)}}{p_end}
{p2colreset}{...}
{txt}{p2colset 1 14 16 2}{...}
{p2col: }{space 2}{res:{txt:conflictYe~z}{space 4}{txt:=} {space 3}.0135299 {txt:(mean)}}{p_end}
{p2colreset}{...}
{txt}{p2colset 1 14 16 2}{...}
{p2col: }{space 2}{res:{txt:gdpPerCapi~z}{space 4}{txt:=} {space 2}-.0923083 {txt:(mean)}}{p_end}
{p2colreset}{...}
{txt}{p2colset 1 14 16 2}{...}
{p2col: }{space 2}{res:{txt:population_z}{space 4}{txt:=} {space 2}-.0075523 {txt:(mean)}}{p_end}
{p2colreset}{...}

{res}{txt}{hline 13}{c TT}{hline 11}{hline 11}{hline 9}{hline 8}{hline 13}{hline 12}
{col 14}{c |}{col 26} Delta-method
{col 14}{c |}     Margin{col 26}   Std. Err.{col 38}      z{col 46}   P>|z|{col 54}     [95% Con{col 67}f. Interval]
{hline 13}{c +}{hline 11}{hline 11}{hline 9}{hline 8}{hline 13}{hline 12}
{space 9}_at {c |}
{space 10}1  {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2} .7213338{col 26}{space 2} .0484895{col 37}{space 1}   14.88{col 46}{space 3}0.000{col 54}{space 4} .6262962{col 67}{space 3} .8163714
{txt}{space 10}2  {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2} .9920494{col 26}{space 2} .0673546{col 37}{space 1}   14.73{col 46}{space 3}0.000{col 54}{space 4} .8600368{col 67}{space 3} 1.124062
{txt}{hline 13}{c BT}{hline 11}{hline 11}{hline 9}{hline 8}{hline 13}{hline 12}
{res}{txt}
{com}. test _b[1._at] = _b[2._at]

{p 0 7}{space 1}{text:( 1)}{space 1} {res}1bn._at - 2._at = 0{p_end}

{txt}{col 12}chi2(  1) ={res}   95.60
{txt}{col 10}Prob > chi2 =  {res}  0.0000
{txt}
{com}. di _b[2._at] - _b[1._at]
{res}.27071565
{txt}
{com}. 
. xtgee restrictionCount2 c.pts_stateDep_z##c.CAT_ratif_z protest_ClarkRegan_logLag1_z exconst_z youthBulgeln_z v2x_juconln_z conflictYear_z gdpPerCapita_z population_z if YEAR>=1994, tol(0.02) force corr(ar 1) family(nbinom) link (nbinom)
{txt}note:  some groups have fewer than 2 observations
       not possible to estimate correlations for those groups
       2 groups omitted from estimation


Iteration 1: tolerance = {res}.04686713
{txt}Iteration 2: tolerance = {res}.03170009
{txt}Iteration 3: tolerance = {res}.02536528
{txt}Iteration 4: tolerance = {res}.02113416
{txt}Iteration 5: tolerance = {res}.00633833

{txt}GEE population-averaged model                   Number of obs     = {res}     2,730
{txt}Group and time vars:          {res}cowcode YEAR      {txt}Number of groups  = {res}       147
{txt}Link:                    {res}negative binomial      {txt}Obs per group:
Family:             {res}negative binomial(k=1)                    {txt}min = {res}         2
{txt}Correlation:                         {res}AR(1)                    {txt}avg = {res}      18.6
                                                              {txt}max = {res}        20
                                                {txt}Wald chi2({res}10{txt})     =  {res}   507.31
{txt}Scale parameter:                 {res}        1      {txt}Prob > chi2       =     {res}0.0000

{txt}{hline 31}{c TT}{hline 11}{hline 11}{hline 9}{hline 8}{hline 13}{hline 12}
{col 1}             restrictionCount2{col 32}{c |}      Coef.{col 44}   Std. Err.{col 56}      z{col 64}   P>|z|{col 72}     [95% Con{col 85}f. Interval]
{hline 31}{c +}{hline 11}{hline 11}{hline 9}{hline 8}{hline 13}{hline 12}
{space 16}pts_stateDep_z {c |}{col 32}{res}{space 2}  .099285{col 44}{space 2} .0141725{col 55}{space 1}    7.01{col 64}{space 3}0.000{col 72}{space 4} .0715075{col 85}{space 3} .1270626
{txt}{space 19}CAT_ratif_z {c |}{col 32}{res}{space 2}-.0020282{col 44}{space 2} .0210567{col 55}{space 1}   -0.10{col 64}{space 3}0.923{col 72}{space 4}-.0432987{col 85}{space 3} .0392422
{txt}{space 30} {c |}
c.pts_stateDep_z#c.CAT_ratif_z {c |}{col 32}{res}{space 2} .0645552{col 44}{space 2} .0135121{col 55}{space 1}    4.78{col 64}{space 3}0.000{col 72}{space 4} .0380719{col 85}{space 3} .0910384
{txt}{space 30} {c |}
{space 2}protest_ClarkRegan_logLag1_z {c |}{col 32}{res}{space 2} .0427327{col 44}{space 2} .0073068{col 55}{space 1}    5.85{col 64}{space 3}0.000{col 72}{space 4} .0284117{col 85}{space 3} .0570537
{txt}{space 21}exconst_z {c |}{col 32}{res}{space 2}-.1272696{col 44}{space 2} .0193169{col 55}{space 1}   -6.59{col 64}{space 3}0.000{col 72}{space 4}-.1651302{col 85}{space 3}-.0894091
{txt}{space 16}youthBulgeln_z {c |}{col 32}{res}{space 2} .2105757{col 44}{space 2} .0310106{col 55}{space 1}    6.79{col 64}{space 3}0.000{col 72}{space 4} .1497962{col 85}{space 3} .2713553
{txt}{space 17}v2x_juconln_z {c |}{col 32}{res}{space 2}-.0771566{col 44}{space 2}  .010826{col 55}{space 1}   -7.13{col 64}{space 3}0.000{col 72}{space 4}-.0983753{col 85}{space 3}-.0559379
{txt}{space 16}conflictYear_z {c |}{col 32}{res}{space 2} .0058714{col 44}{space 2} .0070073{col 55}{space 1}    0.84{col 64}{space 3}0.402{col 72}{space 4}-.0078627{col 85}{space 3} .0196054
{txt}{space 16}gdpPerCapita_z {c |}{col 32}{res}{space 2} .0608155{col 44}{space 2} .0295684{col 55}{space 1}    2.06{col 64}{space 3}0.040{col 72}{space 4} .0028625{col 85}{space 3} .1187685
{txt}{space 18}population_z {c |}{col 32}{res}{space 2} .0761151{col 44}{space 2} .0042616{col 55}{space 1}   17.86{col 64}{space 3}0.000{col 72}{space 4} .0677624{col 85}{space 3} .0844677
{txt}{space 25}_cons {c |}{col 32}{res}{space 2}-.8212862{col 44}{space 2} .0379466{col 55}{space 1}  -21.64{col 64}{space 3}0.000{col 72}{space 4}  -.89566{col 85}{space 3}-.7469123
{txt}{hline 31}{c BT}{hline 11}{hline 11}{hline 9}{hline 8}{hline 13}{hline 12}

{com}. tab CAT_ratif_z

{txt}Standardize {c |}
d values of {c |}
(CAT_ratif) {c |}      Freq.     Percent        Cum.
{hline 12}{c +}{hline 35}
  -1.581226 {c |}{res}      1,032       28.56       28.56
{txt}   .6322455 {c |}{res}      2,581       71.44      100.00
{txt}{hline 12}{c +}{hline 35}
      Total {c |}{res}      3,613      100.00
{txt}
{com}. sum pts_stateDep_z

{txt}    Variable {c |}        Obs        Mean    Std. Dev.       Min        Max
{hline 13}{c +}{hline 57}
pts_stateD~z {c |}{res}      3,551   -1.07e-09           1  -1.340204   2.146289
{txt}
{com}. local mn = r(mean)
{txt}
{com}. local mnsd = r(mean) + r(sd)
{txt}
{com}. margins, at(pts_stateDep_z = `mn' CAT_ratif_z=-1.581226) at(pts_stateDep = `mnsd' CAT_ratif_z=-1.581226) atmeans post
{res}
{txt}Adjusted predictions{col 49}Number of obs{col 67}= {res}     2,730
{txt}Model VCE{col 14}: {res}Conventional

{txt}{p2colset 1 14 16 2}{...}
{p2col:Expression}:{space 1}{res:Negative binomial prediction, predict()}{p_end}
{p2colreset}{...}

{txt}{p2colset 1 14 16 2}{...}
{p2col:1._at}:{space 1}{res:{txt:pts_stateD~z}{space 4}{txt:=} {space 2}-1.07e-09}{p_end}
{p2colreset}{...}
{txt}{p2colset 1 14 16 2}{...}
{p2col: }{space 2}{res:{txt:CAT_ratif_z}{space 5}{txt:=} {space 2}-1.581226}{p_end}
{p2colreset}{...}
{txt}{p2colset 1 14 16 2}{...}
{p2col: }{space 2}{res:{txt:protest_Cl~z}{space 4}{txt:=} {space 5}.07208 {txt:(mean)}}{p_end}
{p2colreset}{...}
{txt}{p2colset 1 14 16 2}{...}
{p2col: }{space 2}{res:{txt:exconst_z}{space 7}{txt:=} {space 4}.109574 {txt:(mean)}}{p_end}
{p2colreset}{...}
{txt}{p2colset 1 14 16 2}{...}
{p2col: }{space 2}{res:{txt:youthBulge~z}{space 4}{txt:=} {space 3}.0196639 {txt:(mean)}}{p_end}
{p2colreset}{...}
{txt}{p2colset 1 14 16 2}{...}
{p2col: }{space 2}{res:{txt:v2x_juconl~z}{space 4}{txt:=} {space 6}.1076 {txt:(mean)}}{p_end}
{p2colreset}{...}
{txt}{p2colset 1 14 16 2}{...}
{p2col: }{space 2}{res:{txt:conflictYe~z}{space 4}{txt:=} {space 3}.0135299 {txt:(mean)}}{p_end}
{p2colreset}{...}
{txt}{p2colset 1 14 16 2}{...}
{p2col: }{space 2}{res:{txt:gdpPerCapi~z}{space 4}{txt:=} {space 2}-.0923083 {txt:(mean)}}{p_end}
{p2colreset}{...}
{txt}{p2colset 1 14 16 2}{...}
{p2col: }{space 2}{res:{txt:population_z}{space 4}{txt:=} {space 2}-.0075523 {txt:(mean)}}{p_end}
{p2colreset}{...}

{txt}{p2colset 1 14 16 2}{...}
{p2col:2._at}:{space 1}{res:{txt:pts_stateD~z}{space 4}{txt:=} {space 10}1}{p_end}
{p2colreset}{...}
{txt}{p2colset 1 14 16 2}{...}
{p2col: }{space 2}{res:{txt:CAT_ratif_z}{space 5}{txt:=} {space 2}-1.581226}{p_end}
{p2colreset}{...}
{txt}{p2colset 1 14 16 2}{...}
{p2col: }{space 2}{res:{txt:protest_Cl~z}{space 4}{txt:=} {space 5}.07208 {txt:(mean)}}{p_end}
{p2colreset}{...}
{txt}{p2colset 1 14 16 2}{...}
{p2col: }{space 2}{res:{txt:exconst_z}{space 7}{txt:=} {space 4}.109574 {txt:(mean)}}{p_end}
{p2colreset}{...}
{txt}{p2colset 1 14 16 2}{...}
{p2col: }{space 2}{res:{txt:youthBulge~z}{space 4}{txt:=} {space 3}.0196639 {txt:(mean)}}{p_end}
{p2colreset}{...}
{txt}{p2colset 1 14 16 2}{...}
{p2col: }{space 2}{res:{txt:v2x_juconl~z}{space 4}{txt:=} {space 6}.1076 {txt:(mean)}}{p_end}
{p2colreset}{...}
{txt}{p2colset 1 14 16 2}{...}
{p2col: }{space 2}{res:{txt:conflictYe~z}{space 4}{txt:=} {space 3}.0135299 {txt:(mean)}}{p_end}
{p2colreset}{...}
{txt}{p2colset 1 14 16 2}{...}
{p2col: }{space 2}{res:{txt:gdpPerCapi~z}{space 4}{txt:=} {space 2}-.0923083 {txt:(mean)}}{p_end}
{p2colreset}{...}
{txt}{p2colset 1 14 16 2}{...}
{p2col: }{space 2}{res:{txt:population_z}{space 4}{txt:=} {space 2}-.0075523 {txt:(mean)}}{p_end}
{p2colreset}{...}

{res}{txt}{hline 13}{c TT}{hline 11}{hline 11}{hline 9}{hline 8}{hline 13}{hline 12}
{col 14}{c |}{col 26} Delta-method
{col 14}{c |}     Margin{col 26}   Std. Err.{col 38}      z{col 46}   P>|z|{col 54}     [95% Con{col 67}f. Interval]
{hline 13}{c +}{hline 11}{hline 11}{hline 9}{hline 8}{hline 13}{hline 12}
{space 9}_at {c |}
{space 10}1  {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2} .7607172{col 26}{space 2} .0691659{col 37}{space 1}   11.00{col 46}{space 3}0.000{col 54}{space 4} .6251546{col 67}{space 3} .8962798
{txt}{space 10}2  {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2} .7569917{col 26}{space 2} .0666739{col 37}{space 1}   11.35{col 46}{space 3}0.000{col 54}{space 4} .6263132{col 67}{space 3} .8876702
{txt}{hline 13}{c BT}{hline 11}{hline 11}{hline 9}{hline 8}{hline 13}{hline 12}
{res}{txt}
{com}. test _b[1._at] = _b[2._at]

{p 0 7}{space 1}{text:( 1)}{space 1} {res}1bn._at - 2._at = 0{p_end}

{txt}{col 12}chi2(  1) ={res}    0.01
{txt}{col 10}Prob > chi2 =  {res}  0.9189
{txt}
{com}. di _b[2._at] - _b[1._at]
{res}-.0037255
{txt}
{com}. xtgee restrictionCount2 c.pts_stateDep##c.CAT_ratif_z protest_ClarkRegan_logLag1 exconst youthBulgeln v2x_juconln conflictYear gdpPerCapita_z population_z if YEAR>=1994, corr(ar 1) family(nbinom) link(nbinom) force tol(0.015)
{txt}note:  some groups have fewer than 2 observations
       not possible to estimate correlations for those groups
       2 groups omitted from estimation


Iteration 1: tolerance = {res}.18536429
{txt}Iteration 2: tolerance = {res}.12307996
{txt}Iteration 3: tolerance = {res}.80757702
{txt}Iteration 4: tolerance = {res}.14009698
{txt}Iteration 5: tolerance = {res}.35157199
{txt}Iteration 6: tolerance = {res}.35103837
{txt}Iteration 7: tolerance = {res}.22297489
{txt}Iteration 8: tolerance = {res}.41230441
{txt}Iteration 9: tolerance = {res}.06222493
{txt}Iteration 10: tolerance = {res}.14587729
{txt}Iteration 11: tolerance = {res}.1089253
{txt}Iteration 12: tolerance = {res}.17416747
{txt}Iteration 13: tolerance = {res}.16585881
{txt}Iteration 14: tolerance = {res}.18365098
{txt}Iteration 15: tolerance = {res}.21185886
{txt}Iteration 16: tolerance = {res}.03255053
{txt}Iteration 17: tolerance = {res}.03790833
{txt}Iteration 18: tolerance = {res}.05464217
{txt}Iteration 19: tolerance = {res}.09308652
{txt}Iteration 20: tolerance = {res}.0964788
{txt}Iteration 21: tolerance = {res}.08866979
{txt}Iteration 22: tolerance = {res}.08323844
{txt}Iteration 23: tolerance = {res}.11335662
{txt}Iteration 24: tolerance = {res}.10510973
{txt}Iteration 25: tolerance = {res}.06415957
{txt}Iteration 26: tolerance = {res}.10405843
{txt}Iteration 27: tolerance = {res}.16178508
{txt}Iteration 28: tolerance = {res}.19332138
{txt}Iteration 29: tolerance = {res}.23080773
{txt}Iteration 30: tolerance = {res}.13832672
{txt}Iteration 31: tolerance = {res}.04525214
{txt}Iteration 32: tolerance = {res}.03839703
{txt}Iteration 33: tolerance = {res}.02586687
{txt}Iteration 34: tolerance = {res}.05842613
{txt}Iteration 35: tolerance = {res}.03773637
{txt}Iteration 36: tolerance = {res}.06866103
{txt}Iteration 37: tolerance = {res}.09850475
{txt}Iteration 38: tolerance = {res}.07229988
{txt}Iteration 39: tolerance = {res}.03118188
{txt}Iteration 40: tolerance = {res}.01682118
{txt}Iteration 41: tolerance = {res}.01219829

{txt}GEE population-averaged model                   Number of obs     = {res}     2,730
{txt}Group and time vars:          {res}cowcode YEAR      {txt}Number of groups  = {res}       147
{txt}Link:                    {res}negative binomial      {txt}Obs per group:
Family:             {res}negative binomial(k=1)                    {txt}min = {res}         2
{txt}Correlation:                         {res}AR(1)                    {txt}avg = {res}      18.6
                                                              {txt}max = {res}        20
                                                {txt}Wald chi2({res}10{txt})     =  {res}   586.46
{txt}Scale parameter:                 {res}        1      {txt}Prob > chi2       =     {res}0.0000

{txt}{hline 29}{c TT}{hline 11}{hline 11}{hline 9}{hline 8}{hline 13}{hline 12}
{col 1}           restrictionCount2{col 30}{c |}      Coef.{col 42}   Std. Err.{col 54}      z{col 62}   P>|z|{col 70}     [95% Con{col 83}f. Interval]
{hline 29}{c +}{hline 11}{hline 11}{hline 9}{hline 8}{hline 13}{hline 12}
{space 16}pts_stateDep {c |}{col 30}{res}{space 2}-.0061715{col 42}{space 2}   .00655{col 53}{space 1}   -0.94{col 62}{space 3}0.346{col 70}{space 4}-.0190092{col 83}{space 3} .0066662
{txt}{space 17}CAT_ratif_z {c |}{col 30}{res}{space 2}-.4612455{col 42}{space 2} .0214301{col 53}{space 1}  -21.52{col 62}{space 3}0.000{col 70}{space 4}-.5032477{col 83}{space 3}-.4192434
{txt}{space 28} {c |}
c.pts_stateDep#c.CAT_ratif_z {c |}{col 30}{res}{space 2}  .177116{col 42}{space 2} .0099875{col 53}{space 1}   17.73{col 62}{space 3}0.000{col 70}{space 4} .1575408{col 83}{space 3} .1966912
{txt}{space 28} {c |}
{space 2}protest_ClarkRegan_logLag1 {c |}{col 30}{res}{space 2} .1034004{col 42}{space 2} .0059162{col 53}{space 1}   17.48{col 62}{space 3}0.000{col 70}{space 4} .0918049{col 83}{space 3}  .114996
{txt}{space 21}exconst {c |}{col 30}{res}{space 2}-.2133404{col 42}{space 2} .0098659{col 53}{space 1}  -21.62{col 62}{space 3}0.000{col 70}{space 4}-.2326772{col 83}{space 3}-.1940036
{txt}{space 16}youthBulgeln {c |}{col 30}{res}{space 2} .1327177{col 42}{space 2} .0517826{col 53}{space 1}    2.56{col 62}{space 3}0.010{col 70}{space 4} .0312257{col 83}{space 3} .2342097
{txt}{space 17}v2x_juconln {c |}{col 30}{res}{space 2}-.0499806{col 42}{space 2} .0040818{col 53}{space 1}  -12.24{col 62}{space 3}0.000{col 70}{space 4}-.0579807{col 83}{space 3}-.0419805
{txt}{space 16}conflictYear {c |}{col 30}{res}{space 2}-.0937705{col 42}{space 2} .0266258{col 53}{space 1}   -3.52{col 62}{space 3}0.000{col 70}{space 4} -.145956{col 83}{space 3} -.041585
{txt}{space 14}gdpPerCapita_z {c |}{col 30}{res}{space 2} .2460303{col 42}{space 2} .0155622{col 53}{space 1}   15.81{col 62}{space 3}0.000{col 70}{space 4} .2155289{col 83}{space 3} .2765317
{txt}{space 16}population_z {c |}{col 30}{res}{space 2} .0642381{col 42}{space 2} .0146358{col 53}{space 1}    4.39{col 62}{space 3}0.000{col 70}{space 4} .0355524{col 83}{space 3} .0929238
{txt}{space 23}_cons {c |}{col 30}{res}{space 2}-.4884192{col 42}{space 2} .1583342{col 53}{space 1}   -3.08{col 62}{space 3}0.002{col 70}{space 4}-.7987485{col 83}{space 3}-.1780898
{txt}{hline 29}{c BT}{hline 11}{hline 11}{hline 9}{hline 8}{hline 13}{hline 12}

{com}. margins, at(pts_stateDep = `mn' CAT_ratif_z=0.6322455) at(pts_stateDep = `mnsd' CAT_ratif_z=0.6322455) atmeans post
{res}
{txt}Adjusted predictions{col 49}Number of obs{col 67}= {res}     2,730
{txt}Model VCE{col 14}: {res}Conventional

{txt}{p2colset 1 14 16 2}{...}
{p2col:Expression}:{space 1}{res:Negative binomial prediction, predict()}{p_end}
{p2colreset}{...}

{txt}{p2colset 1 14 16 2}{...}
{p2col:1._at}:{space 1}{res:{txt:pts_stateDep}{space 4}{txt:=} {space 2}-1.07e-09}{p_end}
{p2colreset}{...}
{txt}{p2colset 1 14 16 2}{...}
{p2col: }{space 2}{res:{txt:CAT_ratif_z}{space 5}{txt:=} {space 3}.6322455}{p_end}
{p2colreset}{...}
{txt}{p2colset 1 14 16 2}{...}
{p2col: }{space 2}{res:{txt:protest_Cl~1}{space 4}{txt:=} {space 3}.9611858 {txt:(mean)}}{p_end}
{p2colreset}{...}
{txt}{p2colset 1 14 16 2}{...}
{p2col: }{space 2}{res:{txt:exconst}{space 9}{txt:=} {space 3}4.940659 {txt:(mean)}}{p_end}
{p2colreset}{...}
{txt}{p2colset 1 14 16 2}{...}
{p2col: }{space 2}{res:{txt:youthBulgeln}{space 4}{txt:=} {space 3}2.888049 {txt:(mean)}}{p_end}
{p2colreset}{...}
{txt}{p2colset 1 14 16 2}{...}
{p2col: }{space 2}{res:{txt:v2x_juconln}{space 5}{txt:=} {space 2}-.7291509 {txt:(mean)}}{p_end}
{p2colreset}{...}
{txt}{p2colset 1 14 16 2}{...}
{p2col: }{space 2}{res:{txt:conflictYear}{space 4}{txt:=} {space 3}.1611722 {txt:(mean)}}{p_end}
{p2colreset}{...}
{txt}{p2colset 1 14 16 2}{...}
{p2col: }{space 2}{res:{txt:gdpPerCapi~z}{space 4}{txt:=} {space 2}-.0923083 {txt:(mean)}}{p_end}
{p2colreset}{...}
{txt}{p2colset 1 14 16 2}{...}
{p2col: }{space 2}{res:{txt:population_z}{space 4}{txt:=} {space 2}-.0075523 {txt:(mean)}}{p_end}
{p2colreset}{...}

{txt}{p2colset 1 14 16 2}{...}
{p2col:2._at}:{space 1}{res:{txt:pts_stateDep}{space 4}{txt:=} {space 10}1}{p_end}
{p2colreset}{...}
{txt}{p2colset 1 14 16 2}{...}
{p2col: }{space 2}{res:{txt:CAT_ratif_z}{space 5}{txt:=} {space 3}.6322455}{p_end}
{p2colreset}{...}
{txt}{p2colset 1 14 16 2}{...}
{p2col: }{space 2}{res:{txt:protest_Cl~1}{space 4}{txt:=} {space 3}.9611858 {txt:(mean)}}{p_end}
{p2colreset}{...}
{txt}{p2colset 1 14 16 2}{...}
{p2col: }{space 2}{res:{txt:exconst}{space 9}{txt:=} {space 3}4.940659 {txt:(mean)}}{p_end}
{p2colreset}{...}
{txt}{p2colset 1 14 16 2}{...}
{p2col: }{space 2}{res:{txt:youthBulgeln}{space 4}{txt:=} {space 3}2.888049 {txt:(mean)}}{p_end}
{p2colreset}{...}
{txt}{p2colset 1 14 16 2}{...}
{p2col: }{space 2}{res:{txt:v2x_juconln}{space 5}{txt:=} {space 2}-.7291509 {txt:(mean)}}{p_end}
{p2colreset}{...}
{txt}{p2colset 1 14 16 2}{...}
{p2col: }{space 2}{res:{txt:conflictYear}{space 4}{txt:=} {space 3}.1611722 {txt:(mean)}}{p_end}
{p2colreset}{...}
{txt}{p2colset 1 14 16 2}{...}
{p2col: }{space 2}{res:{txt:gdpPerCapi~z}{space 4}{txt:=} {space 2}-.0923083 {txt:(mean)}}{p_end}
{p2colreset}{...}
{txt}{p2colset 1 14 16 2}{...}
{p2col: }{space 2}{res:{txt:population_z}{space 4}{txt:=} {space 2}-.0075523 {txt:(mean)}}{p_end}
{p2colreset}{...}

{res}{txt}{hline 13}{c TT}{hline 11}{hline 11}{hline 9}{hline 8}{hline 13}{hline 12}
{col 14}{c |}{col 26} Delta-method
{col 14}{c |}     Margin{col 26}   Std. Err.{col 38}      z{col 46}   P>|z|{col 54}     [95% Con{col 67}f. Interval]
{hline 13}{c +}{hline 11}{hline 11}{hline 9}{hline 8}{hline 13}{hline 12}
{space 9}_at {c |}
{space 10}1  {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2} .3484271{col 26}{space 2} .0286043{col 37}{space 1}   12.18{col 46}{space 3}0.000{col 54}{space 4} .2923637{col 67}{space 3} .4044904
{txt}{space 10}2  {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2} .4029862{col 26}{space 2} .0316185{col 37}{space 1}   12.75{col 46}{space 3}0.000{col 54}{space 4}  .341015{col 67}{space 3} .4649574
{txt}{hline 13}{c BT}{hline 11}{hline 11}{hline 9}{hline 8}{hline 13}{hline 12}
{res}{txt}
{com}. test _b[1._at] = _b[2._at]

{p 0 7}{space 1}{text:( 1)}{space 1} {res}1bn._at - 2._at = 0{p_end}

{txt}{col 12}chi2(  1) ={res}  178.72
{txt}{col 10}Prob > chi2 =  {res}  0.0000
{txt}
{com}. di _b[2._at] - _b[1._at]
{res}.05455916
{txt}
{com}. 
. exit

{txt}end of do-file


{com}. exit, clear
